Repo Commentary-11/14/22

I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry, but instead, approaching my 40th anniversary (12/06) in the industry, and am employed by top-notch Fintech solutions company, Transcend, the “Future of Capital Markets Innovation.

 

Likewise, the Repo Commentary is also not retired, but was merely sleeping. It is back, periodically.

 

I designed and taught an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo, as part of Pierpoint’s Finance Academy. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo.

 

(646-753-1300) mobile

(jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com),

(jeff.kidwell@transcendstreet.com)

or on LinkedIn

 

 

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on Securities Finance Times website. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under at work or working remotely. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former employers or current employers, and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make marketing spiels, and I really am more interested in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better!

 

 

Holidays or Events (11/11):

 

  • Veterans Day (US, celebrating all military veterans, not to be confused with Memorial Day for veterans who died in battle, or Military Appreciation Day which is for veterans and currently active military.) Hopefully, you all had Friday off.
  • Birthday of King Jigme Singye Wangchuck (Bhutan)
  • Children’s Day (Croatia)
  • End of WWI observances (Armistice Day in New Zealand, France, Belgium, and Serbia; National Independence Day in Poland; Remembrance Day in UK, Commonwealth of Nations, Canada, and Australia; and formerly Armistice Day in the US)
  • Independence Day (Angola)
  • Independence of Cartagena (Colombia)
  • Opening of Carnival (Germany, the Netherlands, and other countries)
  • National Education Day (India)
  • Republic Day (Maldives)
  • Singles’ Day (China)
  • Martin’s Day (Sint Maarten, Kingdom of the Netherlands)
  • Women’s Day (Belgium)
  • Pepero Day (South Korea)

 

Daily Weird Facts (from factslides.com):

 

 

While most penguins are monogamous, they spend most of their year apart.

 

 

 

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

 

 

 

“Every decision I make is the right one for me.”—Louise Hay

 

 

 

Currency and Commodity Markets:

 

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

$68.03/barrel on 08/13

$68.06/barrel on 09/09

$90.99/barrel on 02/18/22

$97.28/barrel on 07/22/22

$94.47/barrel on 08/02/22

$90.59/barrel on 08/22/22

$89.71/barrel on 11/11/22

My West Palm Beach gas station is charging $3.29/gallon, down 19 cents in 2 weeks, and below the national average.

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

109.59 on 08/13/21

109.92 on 09/10/21

115.15 on 02/18/22

136.03 on 07/21/22

132.15 on 08/01/22

137.51 on 08/21/22

139.20 on 11/11/22

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

08/13/21 at $1.1797

09/10/21 at $1.1820

02/18/22 at $1.1342

07/21/22 at $1.0236

08/01/22 at $1.0201

08/21/22 at $.9943 wow!  We started this at $1.08. Highest since 2002

11/11/22 at $1.0331

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

08/13/21 at $1.3866

09/10/21 at $1.385

02/18/22 at $1.3583

07/21/22 at $1.2017

08/01/22 at $1.2222

08/21/22 at $1.1763 uh oh

11/11/22 at $1.1798

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

1.2515 on 08/13/21

1.2644 on 09/10/21

1.2737 on 02/18/22

1.2877 on 07/21/22

1.2848 on 08/01/22

1.3051 on 08/21/22 getting stronger

1.3255 on 11/11/22

With data showing continuing price increases and the Fed’s aggressive action to combat that inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation, one would think Gold would be advancing. But, it has been dormant. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

08/13/21 $1,781.50

09/09/21 $1,797.20

02/28/22 $1,897.60

07/22/22 $1,728.90

08/02/22 $1,796.90

08/22/22 $1,749.40

11/11/22 $1,767.90

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!

$46,574.40 on 09/09/21

$67,582.60 on 11/08/21 not a Commentary date, but the all-time high

$35,070.10 on 01/22/22 not a Commentary date, but relevant to show its volatility

$40,015.10 on 02/18/22

$23,143.10 on 07/22/22

$22,975.30 on 08/02/22

$21,169.80 on 08/21/22 down 340.60

On 3/13/20, just post COVID-19 breakout, Bitcoin had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It made almost exactly a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels, wiping out all 2021 gains. All of a sudden, it began climbing higher again in the Fall of 2021, hitting an all-time high of $67,582.10 on 11/08/21. But, volatility wasn’t over and was not for the faint of heart. The SEC signaled it is willing to take a hard line approach towards cryptoasset regulation and what Chair Gary Gensler has called the “Wild West of finance”, by threatening to sue Coinbase over a plan to offer accounts that pay interest on cryptoasset holdings. This has also intensified the debate about the SEC’s jurisdiction over cryptoassets. All of this led to another massive correction of nearly 50% (again), bringing it down to interim low of $35,070.10 on 01/22/22. Now, as I look at the moves since I wrote the last Repo Commentary, it was about $40,015 then and rallied to $47,454 on 03/28/22. Then it started the long road down, cratering at $18,948 on 06/18/22. Ever since the interim high of $31,750 on 06/09/22, Bitcoin has fallen below $20,000, rallied to nearly $25,000, and since August 2022, kept leaking to $16,4966.60 on 11/13/22.

My sources are still speaking regularly to me about Staking and Mining. They also are now talking about auction bidding for NFTs. Bitcoin and Ethereum took a major $200 billion whack, when FTX went bankrupt. Going back to Cryptocurrencies for a minute, there was big news this past week about crypto mogul Sam Bankman-Fried, who was worth $26 billion for his FTX.com, the multi-celebrity endorsed ‘gateway’ to all things crypto, which has now become its own celebrity, as the largest bankruptcy of the year. STB has resigned from the firm now. The digital assets were supposed to revolutionize finance, but we see the same mistakes and lofty promises made. He was supposed to be part of a movement called “effective altruism and donate his crypto wealth. Instead, he has now left many retail traders who poured their life savings into digital assets left with nothing. He has abandoned venture capital firms who gave him a lot of money, without demanding that he establish some kind of oversight over FTX. With the SEC and Justice Department now investigating, and Larry Summers likening FTX situation to Enron, the road for FTX and the industry looks bumpy ahead. FTX was tied to many exchanges and a massive trading operation. There were more than 130 entities tied to FTX.com. Somewhat lost in THAT headline news, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange Binance, just 2 days prior to FTX’s crash, announced that it was buying its arch-rival, then decided not to, and then it crashed. The deal fell apart just hours after it was announced. This also sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market.

 

Global Financial News:

 

The G-20 summit is convening in Bali. President Biden is meeting with China’s Xi for the first time, and the stakes are high. Still one of the conferences I haven’t attended in 40 years. Biden seems to be going in hot to the meeting with Xi, but Yellen is backing improved US-China relations, according to the NY Times. DLT is expected to bring major efficiencies in global derivatives markets, but is not expected to be the answer to all issues, according to Acuiti. Bond buying has surged with investors more optimistic on inflation. Some $2.6 billion worth of bonds were purchased during the week ending 11/9/22, the biggest weekly total in 4 months, according to Bank of America Global Research. The surge implies that investor confidence was already returning, even before the positive consumer price report on 11/10/22. The WSJ reports that US regulators have issued a Treasury market reform report. Is the word “reform” the most used market word since 2007?? Yet, Treasury yields are climbing, as Waller pours cold water on the market by warning against dovish outlook. I actually found my old Whip Inflation Now pin from the Ford administration. The SEC is proposing human capital reporting rules. SLR, and other popular regulatory acronyms, may take on new human capital meanings, like for instance SLackeR. FINRA’s Cook is talking about how Reg BI exams are continuing to evolve. The People’s Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have urged financial institutions to provide more support for the country’s ailing real estate sector. The regulators reportedly outlined several measures financial firms can take, including deferred loan repayments by as much as a year, per Reuters. ECB’s Enria says that supervising crypto will be a struggle, per the Financial Times. Bank of England official says that rates are higher than needed to tame inflation, per the Financial Times.  ESG funds continue to outperform, but a recent survey is showing pessimism ahead. The funds have declined slightly less than funds that track benchmark indexes like S&P 500, and 56% of ESG funds outperformed rival category groups in the 3-year period through September, according to Morningstar. Still, a Bloomberg survey shows that 65% of respondents expect the broader market to beat ESG funds next year. Global equity funds, unlike bond funds, posted $11.6 billion of Outflows during the week of 11/9/22, the first net outflow in 3 weeks, according to Refinitiv Lipper data. Investors withdrew $10.5 billion from US funds and $830 million from European funds, while Asian funds saw a $290 million Inflow.

 

US Market News:

 

 

Still at levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is still well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. But, it has retreated since the beginning of 2022, when it set a record high. The aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve to squash alarming inflation (brought about partly by the huge multi-$trillion injections of money into the economy by the US government to combat the economic disaster brought on by the pandemic), the war in the Ukraine, and negative GDP numbers, gave a 3-punch combo to the stock market. Stocks extended a rally, sparked by a slowdown in inflation last month, but equity analysts have only become more pessimistic about the future. A majority are projecting the S&P 500 earnings to decline by 0.39% year/year in Q4, down from August’s expectations of 6% increase. Yet, stocks on Friday capped their best week since June.

Here are the latest DJIA closes (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates):

11/11/22. 33,747.86

08/21/22  33,063.61 down 643.13 for the day

08/01/22  32,798.40

07/21/22  32,036.90

02/17/22  34,312.03

01/04/22   36,799.65 all-time record high close

11/08/21  36,432.22

09/08/21  35,031.07

08/13/21  35,515.38

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 pre-pandemic high

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58

12/26/18 at 2,467.70

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

08/13/21 at 4,468.00

09/09/21 at 4,493.28

01/03/22 at 4,796.56 all-time high

02/17/22 at 4,380.26

07/21/22 at 3,955.47

08/01/22 at 4,118.63

08/21/22 at 4,137.99 down 90.49

11/11/22 at 3,992.93

S&P has drifted from its all-time high at the beginning of the year.

Nasdaq closed on:

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

08/13/21 at 14,822.90

09/08/21 at 15,286.64

12/27/21 at 15,871.26 all-time high

02/17/22 at 13,716.72

07/21/22 at 12,059.61

08/01/22 at 12,368.98

08/22/22 at 12,381.57 down 323.64

11/11/22 at 11,323.33

 

The US Treasury market is focused on Inflation, the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, weak economic data, and sudden increase in unemployment (which the Fed seems to be okay with as the price to pay to get Inflation under control.)

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28%

05/10/20 at 0.16%

07/24/20 at 0.14%

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%

09/09/21 at 0.23%

02/17/22 at 1.49% what a dramatic change, as the Fed moved into tightening policy to rein in inflation

07/21/22 at 3.10%

08/01/22 at 2.90%

08/22/22 at 3.32%

11/10/22 at 4.34%

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21

09/09/21 at 0.43%

02/17/22 at 1.70% back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.07%

08/01/22 at 2.82%

08/22/22 at 3.36%

11/10/22 at 4.17%

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38%

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 0.79%

02/17/22 at 1.85% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.00%

08/02/22 at 2.66%

08/22/22 at 3.17%

11/11/22 at 3.95%

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63%

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24%

07/14/21 at 1.11%

08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.08%

02/17/22 at 1.94% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 2.99%

08/02/22 at 2.64%

08/22/22 at 3.12%

11/10/22 at 3.89%

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65%

12/06/19 at 1.84%

02/06/20 at 1.65%

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02%

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37%

08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.30%

02/17/22 at 1.97%

07/21/22 at 2.91%

08/01/22 at 2.60%

08/22/22 at 3.03%

11/10/22 at 3.82%

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21

09/09/21 at 1.90%

02/17/22 at 2.31%

07/21/22 at 3.08%

08/02/22 at 2.92%

08/22/22 at 3.24%

11/10/22 at 4.03%

                                                                                   

 

Housing News:

 

I am hearing from my real estate people that “houses that can sell are selling quickly.” The typical home that went pending in September managed to find a buyer in just 19 days. But, when you look at the Overall inventory of home for sale, including those that haven’t yet found a buyer, the number of days on the market is higher. In fact, it’s currently close to 54 days. That’s 45% increase from last year at the same time. So, homes are lingering on the market longer, which is good for buyers, not good for sellers. According to recent survey, 51 of the country’s largest 100 housing markets remain Sellers’ markets, not buyers’ markets. However, with affordability conditions in a flux and buyer demand slowing nationwide, we could see a buyers’ market on the way. In just the past few months, the number of sellers’ markets has fallen from 83 in August to 51 today. By next September, some analysts are predicting that those same 100 markets will show 27 favoring buyers, 30 as neutral, and only 43 favoring sellers.

The Housing supply and demand forces have both been culprits in this housing crisis. Typically, they act inversely to each other and have opposite effects on prices. But, unusual circumstances were created by the pandemic. Once we were out of many of the COVID restrictions, homeowners who worked remotely, suddenly had savings and government aid, historically low interest rates, and took interest in their homes (which were now their workplaces). This caused a boom in home repairs and remodeling. There was also a boom in refinancing to pay for those remodel jobs. I have a friend who refinanced a 30year 6.625% mortgage to 3.25%! That was just about the lowest the 30-year rate ever got!  It also caused a boom in demand for upgrading homes to new larger homes. The problem is that this increased demand ran into a wall of supply problems. There was suddenly a labor shortage, coupled with high tariffs, and a huge supply chain problem, so builders and building materials were in ridiculously short supply. Prices for materials, like lumber, increased by nearly 500% from March 2020 to March 2021. According to a housing industry expert, some 25% of all construction jobs remain unfilled. A number of already started NYC apartment building projects were halted. Now, with interest rates forced higher by the Federal Reserve and uncertain builders, new permits and supply continue to fall short of  demand. And, now, that demand has waned, with prices not adjusted lower and mortgage rates more than doubled from the lows.

The rental market is a whole ‘nuther animal, with the average renter in any major US city spending much more than 1/3 of their income on rent (the generally accepted rule of thumb), and in Miami and Los Angeles, the typical renter spends more than ½ of their income on rent. I’m sure you’ve watched one of those million-dollar listing shows or the Love It or List It, in which they have shown bidding wars to BUY houses. Well, that’s not happening much anymore in the current environment. However, I hear that the rental market is so hot that people I know are losing on rentals, because other renters are willing to pay more than the rent required, or are paying six months of rent up-front, etc. Who would have thought that there would be a bidding war for rentals? And, remember, this is not just the Manhattan real estate apartment rentals. We are also talking Florida home rentals and townhome rentals. Pretty scary.

 

Repo/Securities Financing News:                              

It was great seeing everyone again at the 37th RMA Conference in Key Biscayne, FL, in October! It felt great for me to be back at the conference which I have attended all of them, back in the industry, and back able to do post-pandemic face-to-face meetings again! Thanks for the dozens of people who took the time to speak with me and thanks for coming by the Transcend booth. It was amazing to see the turnout at the conference, some 1200 people, the most since probably 2005, pre-Financial Crisis. I think I was part of the well-represented ‘seasoned’ contingent, as many long-time familiar faces have returned in new roles and adapted.

I also enjoyed the Finadium Rates & Repo conference in November, virtual and reception in NYC, which had some great, timely topics.

I have the pleasure to still be working remotely from West Palm Beach, FL (okay, no mock sympathy please), but I am coming up to NYC and NJ, to visit in-person with some clients and with my teammates at Transcend. If you would like to meet with me, please let me know, and I’ll get it on the schedule.

What to talk about in our Repo & Securities Lending industry, besides the obvious, financial technology? Well, I have been addressing with clients lately not only their technological pain points, but also discussing the SEC’s proposal to move all Treasuries clearing to central clearing and away from bilateral trading. But, then Gensler came pretty close to saying that the SEC supports all-to-all trading, which could also increase liquidity that is direly needed in the Securities Financing market (particularly with the increase in US Treasury issuance and the cost of balance sheets for broker/dealers.) You have heard me expound on this subject since 2008, when I started peer-to-peer discussion, ironically with the Federal Reserve, and then probably with each and every one of you over the next 10 years. I am glad to see that P2P or All2All has grown, ATPs and ETPs are expanding members who can trade into the buyside, and efforts like the Global Peer Financing Association chaired by HOOPP’s Rob Goobie, have taken off. It’s our first time back together in a while, so I will spare you my spiel.

I’ve also had several discussions with clients about UMR, SLR, SOFR, Total Return Swaps, Modified Repo, and whether some venders are using the term “Collateral Optimization” as undefined vender jargon or as a promise that some of them can’t make.

Last Friday, Asset Servicing Times hosted its 2nd Industry Excellence Awards, celebrating the best in business. Nasdaq has appointed Christian Sjoberg as head of business development for post-trade in Singapore. FIA Tech has appointed Debby Planer to the newly created role of VP, Head of Connectivity. Software provider ION has expanded its XTP cleared derivatives platform, with the addition of JANUS solution and Clarus CHARM solution. Universal Investment Group has completed the acquisition of European Fund Administration (EFA).

 

Upcoming Securities Financing Conferences:

Finadium-Rates & Repo Conference 2022, 11/02/22, NYC hybrid, streamed and in-person reception the following week.

 

Securities Finance Times-Securities Finance Technology Symposium, 11/22/22, London, in person.

 

IMN-will hold its 28th Annual Beneficial Owners’ International Securities Finance and Collateral Management Conference, 01/24/23-01/25/23 in New Orleans, in person. I will be there.

 

Federal Reserve News:

 

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 3.75%-4.00% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while and also up until just 03/16 of this year, that target range was 0.00%-0.25%). When I last wrote, the target rate was still 2.25%-2.50%, but then the Fed on 11/02/22 announced the second of two consecutive hikes of 75bp in the target rate. It wasn’t quite the 100bp that many market participants were expecting, but it was still a big move. It had a direct ripple effect on mortgage rates (particularly floating rate mortgages), prices, and consumer demand. It was part of the  Fed’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy to combat rampant inflation. Actually, the Fed has 2 main missions: Keep inflation in check (around 2%) and keep the unemployment rate at a low equilibrium level. It is not charged with keeping stocks from collapsing, supporting GDP, or other economic tasks, in its mission. Having  been a Fed watcher for my whole career, I know better than assuming one can predict the Fed’s behavior or what is Fedspeak and what is genuine foretelling. It is worth noting, as I mentioned in the US Markets section, that the Fed seems okay with letting the Unemployment rate rise, some pain to bring down Inflation further.

The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks. 

The next FOMC meetings are: 12/14/22. The 2023 schedule of FOMC meetings has been announced, but it is still tentative: 02/02/23, 03/22/23, 05/03/23, 06/14/23, 07/26/23, 09/20/23, 11/01/23, 12/13/23, and 01/31/24. All of the scheduled meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we were in.

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight. Note that the Fed has the nomenclature backwards, it is actually Repoing securities out of the Reverse Repo Program and taking cash IN from its perspective. As if Repo nomenclature, bid and offer, and acronyms weren’t hard enough for everybody.

 

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. It has been extremely active and these are fairly strong quakes.

11/13/22 5.0 Mariana Islands Region

11/13/22 4.9 Fiji Region

11/13/22 4.7 W of Buala, Solomon Islands

11/13/22 5.2 SSW of Kroya, Indonesia

11/13/22 4.5 SSW of Corinto, Nicaragua

11/13/22 4.6 NE of Cubara, Colombia

11/13/22 4.5 WSW of Adak, Alaska

11/13/22 4.6 ENE of Levuka, Fiji

11/13/22 5.1 ENE of Shikotan, Russia

11/12/22 5.0 E of Hihifo, Tonga

11/12/22 5.0 NNW of Lebu, Chile

11/12/22 6.2 Coast of Bio-Bio, China

11/12/22 5.7 WNW of Lebu, China

11/12/22 4.8 Crete, Greece

11/12/22 5.1 NE of Hengchun, Taiwan

 

 

Weather:

 

 

Winter has arrived in many parts of the US, particularly Colorado, South Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan, and Maine. But, the rest of the country seems to waffle between cold temperatures one day and record highs the next day. Here in Florida, after Nicole, we have been inching up to the high-80s and even 90 degrees.

In Florida, after a Summer that featured a record 74 days in a row of 90 degrees or greater temperature, the temperature has dropped to about 84 on average. We just finished with a nasty Category 1 Hurricane Nicole, which made landfall on the Treasure Coast and brought huge storm surge, flooding and high winds.

I welcome another new resource for the Repo Commentary, the World Weather Information Service, started in June 2022, covering 3,447 cities. Since June and July 2022, persistent, record-breaking heat waves have affected parts of Europe, sending temperatures soaring into triple digits, causing wildfires, evacuations, and heart-related deaths. In June, temperatures of 40-43 C (104-109 F) were recorded in parts of Europe, with the most severe temperature anomalies in France. The second heatwave occurred in mid-July and extended north to the United Kingdom, where temperatures surpassed 40 C (104 F) for the first time ever. The highest temperature recorded during this round of heatwaves is 47.0 C in Pinhao, Portugal on 07/14/22. For Fahrenheit users, that’s 47.0 x 9/5 +36=116.6 F. The heatwaves are believed to be part of a permanent climate change in Europe. Climatologists linked the extreme heat to the impact of climate change, and experts predict that changes in the jet stream as a result of climate change will cause heat waves with increasing frequency in Europe. Furthermore, they note that due to the jet stream, the increase in heatwaves for European countries is 3 to 4 times higher than for other countries in northern mid-latitudes, such as the US. Meteorologists blame the June heatwave on a rare interaction between the high pressures that generate atmospheric stability, Tropical Storm Alex, the strong sunshine of the boreal summer and an air mass emanating from North Africa that entered the Iberian Peninsula loaded with suspended dust and sand, which led to a haze over the area. Last year, July 2021, Europe was dealing with devastating floods.

Top US earth scientists from NASA and NOAA announced Thursday that 2021 was among the hottest years on record, the 6th hottest for average global surface temperature, to be precise. That makes the last 8 years the 8 warmest in over 140 years of reliable record-keeping. Temperatures in 2021 were nearly 2 degrees hotter than average temperatures in the late 1800s. But, more importantly, NASA and NOAA both issued warnings for the decades-long trend of upward temperatures. With current carbon-cutting commitments from global nations, the world is on track to warm by some 5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would have extreme, disastrous environmental consequences. We are already seeing some of those consequences, according to both organizations, including extreme fires, severe deluges, destabilized ice sheets, ocean heating, sea level rise, great disruptions to animal life, and vector-borne diseases (creatures that infect us with pathogens, like mosquitoes and ticks). President Biden’s administration has been focusing recently on climate change and even is discussing the radical use of massive windfarms for the Gulf of Mexico to replace the traditional offshore oil rigs there. The world’s race to replace Russian supplies may result in the planet missing the crucial 1.5-degree Celsius goal needed to avert catastrophic climate damage, according to a recent report. Emissions are still rising. One example is the recent methane cloud which developed in Alabama last month. It was so large that it was seen from space.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  On 12/09/21, CSU issued an extended forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. La Nina pattern should keep the area less active, after two consecutive years of higher-than-average named storms. La Nina has the opposite effect from El Nino, which is when Pacific waters are warmed and there tends to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. La Nina tends to cool Pacific waters. In 2021, ocean water temperatures hit a record high average temperature. 2021 was the third most active hurricane season on record for named storms with 21 named storms and 7 hurricanes. 2020 had 30 named storms and 2005 had 28 named storms.

Obviously, Hurricane Nicole, which just blew through Palm Beach County, Martin County, and Fort Pierce County in Florida, on its way to hammer Tampa, Daytona, and Jacksonville (who were less prepared for it), did not care about the calendar. It was only the 4th Hurricane to ever hit the US mainland this late in the season (which ends 11/30). The storm surge was 3-10 feet, depending on which coastal city you were in, which caused significant damage, putting a few restaurants under water, including 2 in Boynton Beach, FL. The rain, again depending on where you were, was 3-8”, and was coupled with post-Full Moon high tides which were higher than normal, on top of the flooding from rain and the storm surge. A strange thing that these hurricanes are typically hitting at night (this one made landfall at 3am Thursday morning) and the Category 1’s are causing so much damage (not due to winds, like the higher Category hurricanes, but due to water damage.) Now, this fact is freaky: Hurricane Nicole, which followed Hurricane Ian by 43 days, and made landfall in the same spot, Juno Beach, as Jeanne in 2004, which was exactly 43 days after Hurricane Charley hit the same area on the West Coast of Florida, south of Fort Myers, that Hurricane Ian just hit. All of this happening 18 years apart.

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/22 and ended 11/1/22.

 

Sports News:       

 

 

 

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

 

In the 2021 pandemic-impacted season, in the World Series, the Atlanta Braves shocked the sports world by beating the favored Houston Astros 4 games to 2.

 

The 2022 season, in the World Series, the Houston Astros beat the Philadelphia Phillies 4 games to 2, and had a no-hitter as well.

 

Golf:

 

The PGA season is in its annual break, taking a swing through Australia. But, the rhetoric between the PGA Tour and the new upstart LIV Golf tour, started by Greg Norman, is already heating up again. Phil Mickelson and Pat Perez, who are both playing on the LIV tour, are battling in the media. Perez has a “hate” for Mickelson. Even though Perez and his buddy Dustin Johnson are both on the LIV tour, they think that Mickelson’s legacy has been ruined with HIS defection to LIV and the comments that he made in the aftermath. Mickelson has made some controversial comments about the Saudis, who are backing the LIV tour. Perez’s beef with Mickelson, though, is one that goes back many years, when they grew up together. Perez publicly supported the PGA Tour, then switched gears and joined the LIV. Not unlike a lot of other golfers. The appeal of the LIV is, as in Perez’s case, he didn’t have one top-10 finish in his inaugural LIV season, yet earned $8 million in just 7 starts, in fields with just 48 golfers! By contrast, he made $28 million in 515 starts in 21 seasons on the PGA Tour. In other LIV news, LIV Golf says that Greg Norman has not been fired as CEO, amid reports that he could be replaced. Tiger Woods has released his schedule, at least for December. He has committed to his Hero World Challenge (12-1 to 12-4) and The Match VIII (12/10. He will also play the PNC Challenge (12/17-12/18) with his son Charlie.

 

NCAA Football

 

College football is approaching its last few weeks before conference championships and the College Football Playoff. Alabama is shockingly not at No.1, as the perennial one to beat has suffered 2 defeats already this season. They are at No.8 in the latest rankings. Georgia is the No.1 ranked team. Two Big10 teams, Ohio State and Michigan, are in the Top 4 at No.2 and No.3, respectively. Here are the latest AP rankings:

  1. Georgia (10-0)
  2. Ohio State (10-0)
  3. Michigan (10-0)
  4. TCU (10-0)
  5. Tennessee (9-1)
  6. LSU (8-2)
  7. USC (9-1)
  8. Alabama (8-2)
  9. Clemson (9-1)
  10. Utah (8-2)
  11. Penn State (8-2)
  12. Oregon (8-2)
  13. UNC (9-1)
  14. Mississippi (8-2)
  15. Washington (8-2)
  16. UCLA (8-2)
  17. UCF (8-2)
  18. Notre Dame (7-3)
  19. Kansas State (7-3)
  20. Florida State (7-3)
  21. Tulane (8-2)
  22. Cincinnati (8-2)
  23. Coastal (9-1)
  24. Oklahoma State (7-3)
  25. Oregon State (7-3)

 

NCAA Basketball

 

College Basketball began last week. In their second game of the season, my MSU Spartans took on No.2 Gonzaga on an aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, in San Diego. Crazy to play such a powerhouse so early, but that’s coach Izzo’s style. Anyway, they were winning the whole way, but lost by one point at the end. Here are the very early AP Top 25 rankings (I can’t believe unranked Michigan State couldn’t get a ranking after losing to No.2 by one point??):

  1. UNC (2-0)
  2. Gonzaga (2-0)
  3. Houston (2-0)
  4. Kentucky (2-0)
  5. Kansas (2-0)
  6. Baylor (2-0)
  7. Duke (2-0)
  8. UCLA (2-0)
  9. Creighton (2-0)
  10. Arkansas (2-0)
  11. Tennessee (1-1)
  12. Texas (2-0)
  13. Indiana (2-0)
  14. TCU (2-0)
  15. Auburn (2-0)
  16. Villanova (1-1)
  17. Arizona (2-0)
  18. Virginia (2-0)
  19. San Diego State (2-0)
  20. Alabama (2-0)
  21. Oregon (1-1)
  22. Michigan (2-0)
  23. Illinois (2-0)
  24. Dayton (2-0)
  25. Texas Tech (2-0)

 

NFL:

 

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. It was the first time that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium. QB Tom Brady broke his own record with his 7th Super Bowl ring. He is 7-3 in Super Bowls, but 2022 has not been kind to the 45-year-old, on the field and at home.

The 2021 NFL season ended with a dramatic playoff schedule of many close and Overtime games. In the end, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals (who were the worst team in the NFL only 2 years ago), 23-20. It was only the second time (and in a row) that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

The 2022 NFL season is in its 10th week and has been unlike any season I can remember. There have been more upsets than I can remember, as there is remarkable parity in the League. There are many injuries of key players, especially QBs. There are new faces at QB, even for those teams who don’t have injured QBs. As I said QB Tom Brady of the Bucs is not having a good season and got divorced from Gisele Bundchen. He just had to play one more season! Wow! QB Aaron Rodgers of the Packers, who held out for more money at the beginning of the season is having a terrible year, and blaming all of his teammates around him. His true, unlikable personality, seems to be showing this year. Another QB who should have probably retired, before he gets benched. Even wunderkind, Patrick Mahomes of the Chiefs is not having a typical Mahomes’ year. The Dolphins lead the AFC East and the Patriots are in last place? The Titans are in first place in the AFC South? Two of the best teams in football are now the Eagles and the Giants??? The Eagles are the only undefeated team, at 8-0? The Vikings lead the NFC North? The Packers have lost 5 games in a row? The Bucs, who are only 5-5, are still in first place in the NFC South? The Saints and Steelers, whose HOF veteran QBs, Brees and Big Ben, both retired, are in last place in their divisions? “Cats and dogs sleeping together…” I don’t even remember what movie that’s from. Here is a typical story from the 2022 NFL season so far, the 49ers shopped QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the entire 2021 season and offseason, believing their newly drafted QB was their future. When not one of the 31 other NFL teams picked up Garoppolo on waivers (and many needed and still need a QB), the 49ers took him back as a backup QB, at a much reduce salary. In the second game, the new QB Trey Lance gets hurt and is out for the season, and the 49ers announced that they were “Delighted” to have Garoppolo back, who has now started every game since and had a terrific year. Really not very nice of the 49ers, but ironic, since Garoppolo got the starting QB job originally, when the 49ers poorly handled QB Geno Smith’s injury, when he was their QB of the future and they traded him away and promoted Garoppolo. Speaking of QB injuries, Sunday night, the Rams played the Cardinals and both starting QBs, Murray for the Cards, and Super Bowl-winning Stafford, did not play due to injuries.

 

 

NHL:

 

 

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic. In the end, The Tampa Bay Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions, beating the Montreal Canadiens 4-1.

The 2021-2022 season began on 10/20/21. It ended with a spectacular playoff schedule. The Tampa Bay Lightning tried to 3-peat as Stanley Cup Champions, but ultimately lost to the Colorado Avalanche.

The 2022-2023 season has already begun and we are about 15 games in. My Bruins and the Golden Knights are on fire, with the 2 top records so far.

 

NBA:

 

The 2020-2021 NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The 2021-2022 NBA season had a normal 82-game schedule and the Finals were won by the Warriors over my Boston Celtics in an exciting series.

The 2022-2023 season has just begun and is 12-13 games in. Bucks and Celtics have started well in the Eastern Conference, and the Jazz and Grizzlies and Blazers have started well in the Western Conference.

 

Auto Racing:

The NASCAR Cup Series of 2022 just ended. Joey Logano edged out Ross Chastain by 6 points for the NASCAR Cup. Logano had 4 wins and 11 top 5 finishes. Here was the 2022 schedule and winners:

 

02/06/22 Busch Clash at LA Memorial Coliseum-Joey Logano

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona-Brad Keselowski

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona-Chris Buescher

02/20/22 DAYTONA 500-Austin Cindric

02/27/22 Wise Power 400 Fontana,CA-Kyle Larson

03/06/22 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas-Alex Bowman

03/13/22 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix-Chase Briscoe

03/20/22 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta-William Byron

03/27/22 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Austin-Ross Chastain

04/03/22 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway-Denny Hamlin

04/09/22 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville-William Byron

04/17/22 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol-Kyle Busch

04/24/22 GEICO 500 at Talladega-Ross Chastain

05/01/22 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover-Chase Elliott

05/08/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington-Joey Logano

05/15/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas-Kurt Busch

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Open at Texas-Daniel Suarez

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas-Ryan Blaney

05/29/22 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway-Denny Hamlin

06/05/22 NASCAR Cup Series at WWTR in Illinois-Joey Logano

06/12/22 Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway-Daniel Suarez

06/26/22 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway-Chase Elliott

07/03/22 Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY at Road America-Tyler Reddick

07/10/22 Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart at Atlanta-Chase Elliott

07/17/22 Ambettor 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway-Christopher Bell

07/24/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway-Chase Elliott

07/31/22 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Indianapolis-Tyler Reddick

08/07/22 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan-Kevin Harvick

08/14/22 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond-Kyle Larson

08/21/22 Go Bowling at The Glen, Watkins Glen-Kyle Larson

08/27/22 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona-Austin Dillon

09/04/22 PLAYOFFS round of 16: Southern 500 at Darlington-Erik Jones

09/11/22 PLAYOFFS: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas-Bubba Wallace

09/17/22 PLAYOFFS: Bass Pros Shops Night Race at Bristol-Chris Buescher

09/25/22 PLAYOFFS round of 12: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas-Tyler Reddick

10/02/22 PLAYOFFS: YellaWood 500 at Talladega-Chase Elliott

10/09/22 PLAYOFFS: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte-Christopher Bell

10/16/22 PLAYOFFS round of 8: South Point 400 at Las Vegas-Joey Logano

10/23/22 PLAYOFFS: Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami-Kyle Larson

10/30/22 PLAYOFFS: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville-Christopher Bell

11/06/22 PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIP at Phoenix-Joey Logano

 

Formula One integrity is hanging in the balance after failure to publish an Abu Dhabi report.  There was a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. F1 has announced another 23-race F1 calendar for 2022. Here is the 2022 schedule and here are the winners. Hamilton hasn’t won a single race yet, which is a shock. And Verstappen seems to be winning most of them:

 

03/20/22-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix-Leclerc

03/27/22-Saudi Arabia-Verstappen edged Leclerc

04/10/22-Australia Heineken-Leclerc

04/24/22-Italy Rolex Gran Premio Dell-Emilia Romagna-Verstappen

05/08/22-United States Crypto.com Miami-Verstappen

05/22/22-Spain Pirelli Gran Premio de Espana-Verstappen

05/29/22-Monaco-Perez

06/12/22-Azerbaijan-Verstappen  

06/19/22-Canada-Verstappen

07/03/22-Great Britain-Sainz

07/10/22-Austria Grosser Preis Von Osterreich-Leclerc

07/24/22-France-Verstappen

07/31/22-Hungary Magyar Nagydij-Verstappen

08/28/22-Belgium Rolex-Verstappen

09/04/22-Netherlands Heineken Dutch-Verstappen

09/11/22-Italy Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia-Verstappen

09/25/22-Russia VTB-cancelled

10/02/22-Singapore-Perez

10/09/22-Japan-Verstappen

10/23/22-United States Aramco-Verstappen

10/30/22-Mexico-Verstappen

11/13/22-Brazil Heineken

11/30/22-Abu Dhabi Etihad Airways

 

IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  The 2022 schedule and the winners:

 

02/27/22 St. Petersburg-Scott McLaughlin

03/20/22 Texas-Josef Newgarden

04/10/22 Long Beach-Josef Newgarden

05/01/22 Barber-Pato O’Ward

05/14/22 Indy Road Course-Colton Herta

05/29/22 Indy 500-Marcus Ericsson

06/05/22 Detroit-Will Power

06/12/22 Elkhart Lake-Josef Newgarden

07/03/22 Mid-Ohio-Scott McLaughlin

07/17/22 Toronto-Scott Dixon

07/23/22 Iowa-Josef Newgarden

07/24/22 iowa-Pato O’Ward

07/30/22 Indy Road Course-Alexander Rossi

08/07/22 Nashville-Scott Dixon

08/20/22 St. Louis-Josef Newgarden

09/03/22 Portland-Scott McLaughlin

09/10/22 Laguna Seca-Weathertech-Alex Palou

 

The 2023 season will begin with:

03/05/23 St. Petersburg RP Funding

 

In Motorcycle Racing, Francesco Bagnaia won the MotoGP World Championship.

 

 

Travel News:

In the US, 6 people were killed on Saturday in a mid-air collision of restored WWII aircraft at an airshow in Dallas, TX.  Precision Air Flight 494 crashed into Lake Victoria in Tanzania, killing 19 of the 43 people on board. AAA says that inflation has not slowed travel spending at this time. The rebound effect of people working from home, home-schooling, and being quarantined for the pandemic, is still fueling a surge in travel, as people just want to get out and are stir crazy. Japan is now open to visitors, as it lifts its COVID-19 restrictions. Hong Kong has now relaxed some of its COVID-19 restrictions for tour groups. The price is dropping for TSA PreCheck. Of course, I enrolled last year! Newark Airport authorities removed a snake from a plane. They should do a movie about that. A bird strike after takeoff sent a United Airlines plane back to Chicago airport. Some flyers will be traveling in new luxury on airplanes, as double beds and high-walled suites are being introduced. The FAA says that the ground-stop at Dallas-Fort Worth airport has been lifted. On Friday, you can get free entry to all US National Park sites. A gun hidden in a raw chicken was found by TSA at a Florida airport. A man stormed the cockpit of an American Airlines flight and broke controls before being arrested. After 2022’s travel chaos, not enough planes, flights, pilots, crew, etc., United Airlines announced that it is adding trans-Atlantic flights next summer. The Statue of Liberty’s crown has reopened for the first time in more than 2 years. Some of the sacred Easter Island statues have suffered “irreparable damage” due to a volcano fire. A Viking cruise ship can’t finish its voyage, because the Mississippi River is too low. The FAA has announced a rule allowing more rest for flight attendants. The CDC has suspended country-specific COVID-19 travel advisories. China is ending flight bans and easing quarantine, in COVID-19 shift.

Health News:  

As of today (11/11/11), globally, over 6.609,017 people have died from COVID-19.  More than 634,677,211 (11/11/11) people have been confirmed infected with COVID-19. The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world, 1,074,513.

The next COVID-19 booster shots will target Omicron. The boosters will be bivalent and include both the original vaccine formula, as well as a component that targets Omicron. Since we last chatted, I managed to get COVID-19 again on 09/29/22, despite having had both Pfizer shots and both boosters, as well as having COVID-19 on 12/29/21. However, the symptoms were very mild. My doctor says that I am pretty well immunized and don’t need the bivalent until about January.

Animal News:

 

Grizzly bears could roam wildest reaches of Washington state again.  The National Park Service has urged visitors not to lick toxic psychedelic toads. Here is another benefit to doing away with Daylight Savings Time, it could drastically reduce deer collisions, according to a new study. China experts have flown to Taiwan to help a sick panda, in a rare pooling of knowledge. Five lions escaped an enclosure at the Sydney Zoo. Guests of the zoo’s Roar and Snore overnight stay program were quickly rushed to safety. A woman was pulled to safety in a Florida canal, where she was stranded near some alligators, by a paraglider who made an emergency landing to save her. In what could be a world record, a 5-month-old Bar-tailed Godwit bird left southwest Alaska and touched down 11 days later at Ansons Bay on the island of Tasmania. A Florida teenager won the annual competition hosted by the state of Florida, by capturing 28 Burmese pythons. The seriously invasive and dangerous species is hunted every year in an annual challenge. This year, 1,000 participants from 32 states, Canada, and Latvia participated and removed 231 of the huge pythons. An 18-foot python that was removed, was found to have partially digested WHOLE 5-foot alligator in its stomach. The Fish and Wildlife Service said that Emperor penguins are now a threatened species, due to climate change. A 65-year-old Wyoming man managed to shoot himself, while fighting off an attacking grizzly bear. A grizzly bear mauled two college wrestlers hunting in Wyoming.

Entertainment News:

 

Carmen Electra is leaving little to the imagination in her new bikini shots. Dave Chappelle took on Kanye West, Kanye’s antisemitic remarks, and Trump’s distraction in his Saturday Night Live monologue. In case you were wondering, I binged the latest Star Wars mini-series, Andor, on Disney+. It was a little confusing at first, but wound up having relevance to later stories. I also caught the latest of White Lotus, this time, it’s a hotel in Sicily. I am currently binge-watching the series The Cleaning Lady on HBO Max. Kevin Costner’s Yellowstone series is back for season 5. Maybe, I will finally see it. I think Ozarks should be returning soon. I heard that the next season of The Crown is back. Tiffany Trump, daughter of President Trump and Megan Markle, got married this weekend at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, FL. Dolly Parton has received the $100 million Courage and Civility Award from Jeff Bezos. Well-deserved for this very philanthropic star. Emma Thompson says she was “utterly blind” to her ex-husband Kenneth Branagh’s on-set relationships. Rainn Wilson announced a name change to raise climate change awareness. Emily Blunt says she would be up for a DEVIL WEARS PRADA sequel. Nick Cannon is set to welcome his 12th child, third by Abby De La Rosa. This news comes on the heels of model Alyssa Scott announcing that she is also expecting a child by Cannon. Sylvester Stallone is trying to rewind the age clock in Paramount’s new movie TULSA KING. Watermelon-smashing comedian, Gallgher, has died at age 76. Kevin Conroy, the longtime voice of animated Batman, has died at 66. Chris Rock is set to make history, with Netflix’s first-ever live performance.

Okay, I’m going to have to go on a rant. I had a fellow employee once who did a weekly rant on people’s use of the words its and it’s incorrectly. I now have a pet peeve, which is being promulgated in the news media. All of the major networks are featuring this abomination of the English language every night. Even the Today Show does it frequently. I am referring to when a news anchor or reporter says, “Dave Chappelle, he said…” or “the Miami Dolphins, they have offered…” It’s the use of a Personal Pronoun, followed by a completely unnecessary regular Pronoun, before continuing on with the sentence. Why are they doing that??? They have already identified the person or the them, so why do they then need to say “he”, “she”, “they”, etc. I don’t think this is a nod to all the new pronoun terms for the multitude of gender qualifiers now. It is simply bad English. Or, as my 5 English friends on my Cantor Desk would say, “it’s bad England.”

I need to see OPERATION MINCEMEAT (2021), AVATAR: THE WAY OF THE WATER (2022), UNCHARTED (2022), BULLET TRAIN (2022), and THE GRAY MAN (2022). But, these are the ones that I HAVE seen and my 1-10 rating:

 

2021 Movies

 

NO TIME TO DIE                                8.0

NOBODY                                              7.5

WRATH OF MAN                               7.0

STILLWATER                                     7.0

THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS   7.0

THE CARD COUNTER                      6.5

THE UNFORGIVABLE                      6.0

HOUSE OF GUCCI                            5.0

GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE     4.0

 

2022 Movies

 

TOPGUN: MAVERICK                      8.8

ELVIS                                                    8.5

WATCHER                                           6.5

JURASSIC WORLD                           5.5

 

 

 

Technology & Space News:

 

Thursday, there was a chilling discovery by National Geographic divers off the coast of Florida, who were looking for WWII aircraft that had crashed into the ocean, but instead found a 20-foot section of the NASA Space Shuttle Challenger, which blew up on takeoff 25 years ago from Cape Canaveral, killing the entire crew, including beloved teacher Christa McAuliffe. The crew is buried in  Arlington National Cemetery. It was a shocking and sad event for the entire country. The Space Shuttle program was put on hold for the subsequent 32 months. It was followed by the crash of the Space Shuttle Columbia. The National Geographic divers immediately contacted NASA, who now faces the decision of whether to recover the wreckage or not. It is a Federal offense to find any Space Shuttle parts and not return them to NASA.

The technology industry is taking a beating lately in the stock market and the employment news (not the Financial Technology industry, thankfully). After Elon Musk finally decided to buy Twitter for $44 billion, he then fired 50% of the workers. That sounds like a Gordon Gecko move.  Ahh, most of you are too young to understand that reference. More people have fled the ship of their own volition afterwards.  Ironically, Musk is trying to hire back some 1300 workers whom he fired in a miscalculation of the company’s needs. Musk is now facing a battle in court over his $55 billion pay package at Tesla. Is that like “robbing from Peter to pay Paul?”  Meanwhile, his money-making idea to indicate verified celebrities and brands with a blue check mark on Twitter has failed miserably, as hackers found it simple to use the check mark to impersonate celebrities.

It’s not all bad news on the Technology front, as 60 works from the estate of late Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen went on the auction block at Christie’s, and in just 2 ½ hours, sold for an unprecedented $1.5 billion. Some experts say (or used to say) that gold, currency, art, boats, antiques, memorabilia (now NFTs), physical items are one safe haven against inflation for investors. Cryptocurrencies were also supposed to be on that list, as they slowly replaced gold and silver as standards. But, that hasn’t happened and see the trouble brewing there above in the Currency section of the Repo Commentary.

US News:

 

Let’s to see if I can mention climate change in every section of the Repo Commentary today. Nah, just kidding. However, due to record low water levels on the Mississippi River, there are major shipping jams, just as the US needs to export critical supplies of food, wood, coal and steel to global markets. The problem has been around for months and seriously hampering US food exports in particular. A real supply chain problem. Plus, it will now get worse, as it’s harvest time, and farmers need to bring in their grain and lay down fertilizer before Winter snowfalls. This climate effect of scarce rain and high heat is not just being felt on the Mississippi River, but also other rivers in the US, Europe and China.

President Biden and Democrats are celebrating the retention of control of the Senate. So, the midterm election results were not as bad as he feared. Republicans did not get the red wave that they were expecting, although they are planning still on getting the majority in the House of Representatives, and installing their own Speaker of the House. However, it’s very likely that when US lawmakers return to Washington next week, they will not know who will wield the majority power. The Democrats appear to have an edge in the Senate and the Republicans in the House, but control of both is still up in the air, and is still being counted and may require runoffs, like in Georgia.

International News:

 

 

I have missed the Repo Commentary myself, because I find that I really get into the news and become aware of what is going around in the world in much more detail than I do when I am not writing the Repo Commentary. I’ve explained frequently that I do type the Repo Commentary by hand into Word, then copy and paste it to my website. 

In the Russia/Ukraine war, the Russian military suffered a humiliating loss in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson and had to retreat. it turns out that Russia is reportedly using about 300,000 low quality reservist troops for their mobilization, although they allegedly had a million fully trained troops at their disposal. Apparently, it’s because it’s all they have left to use.  They had about one million military personnel when they started the war, and only about 25% of those were useful in the invasion. After fighting this war of attrition for more than 7 months, they’ve depleted their human resources to such a point that their only option to keep going was to send in less than quality troops. This may partially explain the reports of forced conscription by Russia of captured Ukrainian men, to fight alongside Russian forces against their own Ukrainian people. I don’t remember ALL of the articles of the Geneva Accord, but I think that is a violation. One puzzling and maybe bad sign about the war is that Bomb shelters across Russia are being brought back on line, after more than 3 decades of neglect and non-use since the end of the Cold War.

In other maybe related news, I’ve seen a few reports from different sources that I still think is more rumor than fact, that President Putin is very ill. Physically ill. It might explain, though not excuse, his irrational attacks on a neighboring country that he feels should be Russian, as it was part of the Soviet Union until 1991, even though his military is destroying it, ruining the infrastructure and buildings. I know that history has shown many instances of this behavior before, but I still don’t understand why a warring force that wants to assimilate other people and their resources, claiming that they are their own people after all, chooses to obliterate all of those people and their resources. Maybe it’s like that nihilistic expression, “if I can’t have it/you, then no one can have it/you.” Also, Putin chose not to go to next week’s Group of 20 summit in Indonesia, a rare occurrence.  There’s still more Russian uncertainty, as the Ukraine-Russia grain deal is set to expire.

Thank you for indulging me, constant readers (for SK fans), in my opinions on geopolitics.

An American woman, jailed for trying to leave Saudi Arabia with her daughter, has been freed. Not so the WNBA star in Russia, who was just moved to serve her 9-year sentence for illegal drug possession to a hard labor camp.

When US President Biden accused Saudi Arabia of siding with Russia over oil, the Riyadh cast itself as an emerging power that stands up to Washington and looks after its own interests.

 

Florida:

The Brightline train has resumed service, since Hurricane Nicole. The completed stretch travels at ONLY 88mph. However, just 2 weeks ago, Brightline successfully tested the train that will continue on to Orlando Airport (and Tampa in the future), which will be able to travel at 110mph. I actually took the train from West Palm Beach to Miami, right before the RMA Conference (which was ironically in Key Biscayne, just a bridge away from Miami), and enjoyed the 50-minute ride (versus what would have been 2 ½ hours of nerve-racking driving. It’s only 30 minutes from West Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale on the Brightline train, as opposed to a drive that is a minimum of one hour. I’m very curious to see what the Brightline train time will be to Orlando, which is normally about a 3-hour drive from West Palm Beach. 

Here’s a look at new restaurants in 2022 for Palm Beach County:

  • Casa Cana-North Tequesta (opened February)
  • Lewis Steakhouse (sister to Okeechobee Steakhouse)-Jupiter/Indiantown (opened May)
  • Taco Shack-Jupiter/Abacoa (opened July)
  • Rembar-Jupiter/Bluffs (opened May)
  • AquaGrille-Juno Beach (opened March)
  • Mystic Lobster Roll Company-Juno Beach (opened April)
  • Double Roads Tavern w stage-Jupiter (relocating)
  • HoneyBelle-Palm Beach Gardens/PGA National (opened February)
  • Voodoo Bayou-Palm Beach Gardens/Downtown (opened February)
  • Cactus Grille and Tequila Bar-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross (opened January)
  • Legends Tavern & Grill-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross (opened May)
  • Ela (Indian)-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross
  • El Camino-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened June)
  • Zona Blu-West Palm Beach/Okeechobee (opened April)
  • Pig Beach BBQ-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened June)
  • Common Grounds Brew and Roastery-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened February)
  • Bodega Taqueria y Tequila-West Palm Beach/Clematis (opened February)
  • Mockingbird at The Regional-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened February)
  • The SoSo-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened April)
  • Hive Bakery Café-West Palm Beach/S. Dixie (opened March)
  • Sweetgreen-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened January)
  • Kosher Chobee-West Palm Beach/Okeechobee (opened June)
  • Sicilian Oven-Wellington Mall (opened June)
  • Bar 25-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave.
  • The Falcon-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave (opened May)
  • The Gringo-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave (opened March)
  • Akira Back-Delray/Pineapple (opened March)
  • The Blue Dog Cookhouse and Bar-Boca Raton (opened April)
  • Mister 01 Extraordinary Pizza-Boca Raton (opened March)
  • Ah-Beetz-Delray Beach (opened May)
  • Spadella-Delray Beach (opened November)

I would list all of the restaurants that closed during the pandemic for good, even just the ones that had been open for at least 15 years, but I’m afraid the list might be longer, and depressing.

Repo Commentary-08/24/22

I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry. I have recently completed several projects (below) and am looking to lend my almost 40 years of expertise to firms via consulting or via full-time positions.

  • I designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo, consulting with Pierpoint’s Finance Academy. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo
  • I continue to share my opinion and expertise with the industry through articles in various periodicals.
  • I have been consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.  
  • I have been consulting for 2 years on a new product for the Repo market, Modified Repo, which could solve many industry issues, from liquidity to balance sheet optimization, to even Firesale Risk. 
  • I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums. 

So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, contact me at 

(646-753-1300) mobile

(jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or 

On LinkedIn

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under at work or even remotely. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former employers and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better! 

Holidays or Events (08/23):

  • Buttered Corn Day
  • Cuban Sandwich Day
  • European Day of Remembrance for Victims of Stalinism and Nazism
  • Hug Your Sweetheart Day
  • International Day for the Remembrance of the Slave Trade and its Abolition
  • Internaut Day
  • National Cheap Flight Day
  • National Sponge Cake Day
  • Valentino Day
  • Ride the Wind Day
  • Battle of Kursk Day (Russia)
  • Day of the National Flag (Ukraine)
  • Liberation from Fascist Occupation Day (Romania)
  • International Day for the Remembrance of the Slave Trade and its Abolition
  • National Day for Physicians (Iran)
  • Umhlanga Day (Swaziland)

Some Famous People Born on (08/23):

  • 1754-Louis XVI of France
  • 1785-Oliver Hazard Perry, American commander
  • 1890-Harry Frank Guggenheim, American businessman and publisher, co-founded Newsday
  • 1912-Gene Kelly, American actor, singer, and dancer
  • 1917-Tex Williams, singer-songwriter and guitarist
  • 1931-Barbara Eden, American actress and singer
  • 1932-Mark Russell, American comedian and pianist
  • 1934-Sonny Jurgensen, American football player and sportscaster
  • 1943-Nelson DeMille-American lieutenant and author
  • 1946-Keith Moon-English drummer, songwriter, and producer
  • 1949-Shelley Long-American actress
  • 1949-Rick Springfield-Australian-American singer-songwriter, guitarist, and actor
  • 1958-Julio Franco, Dominican baseball player and manager
  • 1966-Rik Smits, Dutch-American basketball player
  • 1968-Chris DiMarco, American golfer
  • 1970-Jay Mohr, American actor, producer, screenwriter
  • 1970-River Phoenix, American actor, producer, screenwriter
  • 1978-Kobe Bryant, American basketball player and businessman
  • 1990-Mike Yastrzemski, American baseball player, grandson of my favorite all-time baseball player, Yaz. I found this cool too, his grandfather, Carl, celebrated his birthday on 8/22, the day before Mike.

Daily Weird Facts (from factslides.com):

There are over 500,000 alcohol-related deaths in Russia each year. 

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

“The true secret of happiness lies in taking a genuine interest in all the details of daily life.”—William Morris 

Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19 

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

$68.03/barrel on 08/13

$68.06/barrel on 09/09

$90.99/barrel on 02/18/22

$97.28/barrel on 07/22/22

$94.47/barrel on 08/02/22

$90.59/barrel on 08/22/22

My West Palm Beach gas station is charging $3.44/gallon, down 50 cents in 2 weeks, and below the national average. 

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

109.59 on 08/13/21

109.92 on 09/10/21

115.15 on 02/18/22

136.03 on 07/21/22

132.15 on 08/01/22

137.51 on 08/21/22

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426 

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

08/13/21 at $1.1797

09/10/21 at $1.1820

02/18/22 at $1.1342

07/21/22 at $1.0236

08/01/22 at $1.0201

08/21/22 at $.9943 wow!  We started this at $1.08. Highest since 2002

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655 

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

08/13/21 at $1.3866

09/10/21 at $1.385

02/18/22 at $1.3583

07/21/22 at $1.2017

08/01/22 at $1.2222

08/21/22 at $1.1763 uh oh

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

1.2515 on 08/13/21

1.2644 on 09/10/21

1.2737 on 02/18/22

1.2877 on 07/21/22

1.2848 on 08/01/22

1.3051 on 08/21/22 getting stronger

With data showing continuing price increases and the Fed’s aggressive action to combat that inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation, one would think Gold would be advancing. But, it has been dormant. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce 

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00 

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

08/13/21 $1,781.50

09/09/21 $1,797.20

02/28/22 $1,897.60

07/22/22 $1,728.90

08/02/22 $1,796.90

08/22/22 $1,749.40

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18 

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19 

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19 

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!

$46,574.40 on 09/09/21

$67,582.60 on 11/08/21 not a Commentary date, but the all-time high

$35,070.10 on 01/22/22 not a Commentary date, but relevant to show its volatility

$40,015.10 on 02/18/22 

$23,143.10 on 07/22/22

$22,975.30 on 08/02/22

$21,169.80 on 08/21/22 down 340.60

On 3/13/20, just post COVID-19 breakout, Bitcoin had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It made almost exactly a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels, wiping out all 2021 gains. All of a sudden, it began climbing higher again in the Fall of 2021, hitting an all-time high of $67,582.10 on 11/08/21. But, volatility wasn’t over and was not for the faint of heart. The SEC signaled it is willing to take a hard line approach towards cryptoasset regulation and what Chair Gary Gensler has called the “Wild West of finance”, by threatening to sue Coinbase over a plan to offer accounts that pay interest on cryptoasset holdings. This has also intensified the debate about the SEC’s jurisdiction over cryptoassets. All of this led to another massive correction of nearly 50% (again), bringing it down to interim low of $35,070.10 on 01/22/22. Now, as I look at the moves since I wrote the last Repo Commentary, it was about $40,015 then and rallied to $47,454 on 03/28/22. Then it started the long road down, cratering at $18,948 on 06/18/22. It is currently struggling to maintain some upward momentum, but it is creating a long period of stable prices, which may lead to a breakout. Blockchain suffered on Friday, with blockchain stocks opening lower and cryptocurrencies generally weaker, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both plunging. My sources are still speaking regularly to me about Staking and Mining. They also are now talking about auction bidding for NFTs. Since the beginning of the year, the value of cryptoassets held in decentralized finance entities, commonly called DeFi, has fallen from $170 billion to about $61 billion, according to data provider Defi Llama. This industry suffered a major blow when the US Treasury sanctioned Tornado Cash, a platform which helps traders enhance their anonymity. 

Brexit

The Belfast Telegraph reports how Brexit and a blundering DUP have ensured that United Kingdom union’s days may well be numbered. If there was a poll tomorrow, 48% of the Irish would vote to remain in the UK and 41% would vote to continue the Irish unity. Meanwhile, in Scotland, support for rejoining the EU has been skyrocketing among voters. The Times reports that there is a huge delay for the “Festival of Brexit” at Weston-super-Mare. The UK government is in dispute with the EU over the UK’s membership in the EU 100 billion Horizon research program. It has written the EU urging it to “end persistent delays” in delivering on its promise to allow British access to EU research collaborations. Some critics believe that this is just the preamble to a UK withdrawal from the program. There is a call now to make post-Brexit grace periods permanent. That would mean that the NI Protocol would not be fully implemented. That diplomatic dispute is worsening and there is more EU legal action over post-Brexit border rules. A minister says that inflation could increase the bill for outstanding UK spending commitments to the EU by up to GBP 7.5 billion. 

Global Financial News:

Five Chinese state-run companies plan to delist from the NYSE before the US forces them to do so, in a dispute over auditing. The companies are: Aluminum Corporation of China, China Life Insurance, China Petroleum & Chemical, PetroChina, and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical, according to the WSJ and Financial Times. The IPO market is on track for the slowest year since 1995, due to increasing interest rates, already elevated inflation, and the Russia/Ukraine war.  The pipeline in the US has dried up, forcing young companies to draw down cash and wait for IPOs to make a comeback. Wall Street firms are continuing to work to develop blockchain into their trading, with varying success. The idea is that blockchain will lower costs, time, and risks. Having been involved in FinTech in some way my entire career, I know that that can be a political struggle within Wall Street firms, as some management views it as an expense item, not a revenue item. It’s a hard argument to wage, to explain that savings translates to future increase revenue. Also, the allure of Fintech and running on best-of-class technology has an attraction for clients and can directly lead to revenue, giving the firm gravitas. Sorry, I’m starting to argue my own new position. JPMorgan Chase already has been using its Onyx, its blockchain-based network in place, while Goldman Sachs is trading some securities on blockchain-based networks and working to develop its own platform, per the WSJ.  “Blockchain technology is going to rewire all financial services,” says former NYSE President Tom Farley. Money managers, investors, and financial market strategists are positioning themselves for continued inflation, believing that recent interest-rate hikes will bring down inflation from recent highs, but doubt the world’s central banks will actually get inflation down to their targets, mostly around 2%, any time soon. Fund managers are shifting into inflation-protected bonds, commodities, and increasing their allocations to cash, per Bloomberg. Eric Noll has been elected as the next chair of FINRA, succeeding my former Morgan Stanley colleague, Eileen Murray. Hedge funds have positioned in record numbers that this week’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Reserve Chair Powell’s speech will reveal a commitment to maintain the current hawkish tightening policy of the FOMC. There were rumors that the Fed might turn more dovish and hint at easier monetary policy in 2023, but those rumors have quieted down.  Banks issued $9.2 billion in loans to cities and states in Q2, filling the gap left my mutual funds who abandoned the municipal bond market amid rising inflation and yields. It was the highest quarterly growth in municipal lending in about a decade. Moscow Exchange will prohibit US Dollar’s use as collateral, per Reuters. A rule proposed by the SEC would use trading volume to expand the definition of a market dealer, while a second proposed rule would require traders with more than $50 million in assets to be classified as dealers, in what might be an overreach of authority, according to the WSJ editorial board. Did you know that the average duration of a Recession is just 10 months, going back to WWII. We are technically in a Recession, after 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which started in January. So, technically, based on historical average, we may be out of this Recession by November. A counter-argument to that though is that since 1950, each time inflation has exceeded 4% while unemployment was below 5%, a recession began sometime in the next 2 years. So, while we are technically in a Recession by definition, maybe the Recession hasn’t even hit yet. Don’t look now, but CPI registered its second official reduction of the year, down 0.2% in April and down 0.6% in June. So, inflation may be starting to be tamed. Earnings also weren’t bad for stocks, as 77% of the S&P 500 companies beat earnings estimates in Q2. I’ve always been kind of a contrarian. When the herd loves a trade, that’s when I want to get out of it or sell it to them. Recent surveys show that just 1 in 4 people think now is a good time to invest, and a whopping 65% say they are keeping more cash out of the market than they should. This is true herd mentality, sell when tickers are in the red and buy when tickers are in the green. But, this is opposite of a profitable strategy, unless you are very careful. You may wind up selling near the lows and buying near the highs.

US Market News:

Still at levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is still well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. But, it has retreated since the beginning of 2022, when it set a record high. The aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve to squash alarming inflation (brought about partly by the huge multi-$trillion injections of money into the economy by the US government to combat the economic disaster brought on by the pandemic), the war in the Ukraine, and negative GDP numbers, gave a 3-punch combo to the stock market. Strategists now are differing on the sustainability of stock rally, which is the longest winning streak this year. JPMorgan strategists say the rise can extend through year-end, while Morgan Stanley strategists expect a resumption of bearishness soon, per Bloomberg. On Friday, the 3 major US stock indices opened lower en masse, as we hit a huge $2 trillion option expiration date. It was referred to as a “gamma unclench.”

Here are the latest DJIA closes (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates): 

08/21/22  33,063.61 down 643.13 for the day

08/01/22  32,798.40

07/21/22  32,036.90

02/17/22  34,312.03

01/04/22   36,799.65 all-time record high close

11/08/21  36,432.22

09/08/21  35,031.07

08/13/21  35,515.38

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53 

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 pre-pandemic high

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58 

12/26/18 at 2,467.70 

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

08/13/21 at 4,468.00

09/09/21 at 4,493.28

01/03/22 at 4,796.56 all-time high

02/17/22 at 4,380.26

07/21/22 at 3,955.47

08/01/22 at 4,118.63

08/21/22 at 4,137.99 down 90.49

S&P has drifted from its all-time high at the beginning of the year.

Nasdaq closed on:

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high 

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95 

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

08/13/21 at 14,822.90 

09/08/21 at 15,286.64 

12/27/21 at 15,871.26 all-time high

02/17/22 at 13,716.72

07/21/22 at 12,059.61

08/01/22 at 12,368.98

08/22/22 at 12,381.57 down 323.64

Nasdaq managed to reach its all-time high before 2021 ended, but has suffered a 20% drop since, as tech has gotten hit hard.

The US Treasury market is focused on Inflation, the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, and Ukraine and Russia. Maybe, it has an eye on GDP and Unemployment and Housing bubble. I think back when I started in 1982 and 20% Fed Funds overnight on year-ends and typical double-digit regular Fed Funds and how today’s typical traders and salespeople have not seen any of that. Yet, even though the yields are much higher now on US Treasuries over the entire curve, particularly versus the 0.00-0.25% Fed Funds target of the last few years. Yet, if you look at my tables below, Treasury yields have backed up nearly to the exact same levels they were in October 2018, a mere 4 years ago. And, who says Treasuries don’t have price volatility like stocks?!?!  I hope that Risk Managers who set haircut policy for longer-term Repos pay attention to the price/yield volatility and move away from 0% haircuts. Do they not remember Long Term Capital?

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28% 

05/10/20 at 0.16% 

07/24/20 at 0.14% 

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%

09/09/21 at 0.23%

02/17/22 at 1.49% what a dramatic change, as the Fed moved into tightening policy to rein in inflation

07/21/22 at 3.10%

08/01/22 at 2.90%

08/22/22 at 3.32% 

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21

09/09/21 at 0.43%

02/17/22 at 1.70% back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.07%

08/01/22 at 2.82%

08/22/22 at 3.36%

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38% 

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 0.79%

02/17/22 at 1.85% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.00%

08/02/22 at 2.66%

08/22/22 at 3.17%

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63% 

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24% 

07/14/21 at 1.11%

08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.08%

02/17/22 at 1.94% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 2.99%

08/02/22 at 2.64%

08/22/22 at 3.12%

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65% 

12/06/19 at 1.84% 

02/06/20 at 1.65% 

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02% 

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37% 

08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.30%

02/17/22 at 1.97%

07/21/22 at 2.91%

08/01/22 at 2.60% 

08/22/22 at 3.03%

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21

09/09/21 at 1.90%

02/17/22 at 2.31% 

07/21/22 at 3.08%

08/02/22 at 2.92%

08/22/22 at 3.24%

Housing News:

Housing prices are still through the roof in places inland from California, NYC, and other traditionally expensive locales. Experts blame this on COVID. The remote working environment forced on many companies, has made people crave more space and move out of cities, shorelines, and states, which kind of spread the housing crisis inland to other states. The Atlantic reports that home prices nationwide jumped 20% last year, according to the Case-Shiller Index, the highest rate of increase since 1979 (even higher than the Housing Bubble of 2006-2007). In the 4 biggest cities of Florida, rents have gone up 25-55% year/year. California, despite losing 360,000 residents over the last few years, still has a housing shortage of nearly one million homes/apartments, which is why prices haven’t gone down. The Atlantic describes a typical bidding war taking place in suburban Texas, that would normally be seen in California’s frenzied housing market. The pandemic was expected to shift workers to remote locations in the suburbs and would bring metro prices down. Actually, two years later, housing costs in those metro areas are at record highs and the affordability crisis has spread across suburbia.

The Housing supply and demand forces have both been culprits in this housing crisis. Typically, they act inversely to each other and have opposite effects on prices. But, unusual circumstances were created by the pandemic. Once we were out of many of the COVID restrictions, homeowners who worked remotely, suddenly had savings and government aid, historically low interest rates, and took interest in their homes (which were now their workplaces). This caused a boom in home repairs and remodeling. It also caused a boom in demand for upgrading homes to new larger homes. The problem is that this increased demand ran into a wall of supply problems. There was suddenly a labor shortage, coupled with high tariffs, and a huge supply chain problem, so builders and building materials were in ridiculously short supply. Prices for materials, like lumber, increased by nearly 500% from March 2020 to March 2021. According to a housing industry expert, some 25% of all construction jobs remain unfilled. A number of already started city apartment building projects were halted. Now, with interest rates forced higher by the Federal Reserve and uncertain builders, permitting and supply continue to fall short of high demand. 

Currently, the average renter in any major US city spends more than 1/3 of their income on rent, and in Miami and Los Angeles, the typical renter spends more than ½ of their income on rent. 

Repo/Securities Financing News:                              

DTCC’s Project Ion, its distributed-ledger technology (DLT) driven settlement service is now live in a parallel production environment. It is now processing an average of more than 100,000 bilateral equity trades daily and up to 160,000 trades on peak days. This will align with the SEC’s plans to move the US market to an accelerate T+1 settlement cycle.  MarketAxess daily volume of matched repo trades has jumped 17% in first half of 2022. Eurex has promoted Maximilian Dannheimer to Head of Prime Sales and FIC Derivatives and Repo Sales, after 13 years at Eurex. Dixit Joshi will return to Credit Suisse as its CFO, leaving as group Treasurer of Deutsche Bank. Oliver Bisset-Johnson, former BNP Paribas trader, has become an agency lending trader at Deutsche Bank. The SEC’s decision to let MiFID II no-action letter expire could cause problems for the industry. The introduction of this expiration date could through global research markets and the relationships between European, global asset managers, and US brokers into chaos. Baton Systems has added OCC, the Chicago-based clearer of futures, options and securities lending trades, to its collateral management network. Now, clearing members of Baton will be able to automate collateral management across 11 CCPs globally via the Baton Core-Collateral ecosystem. An ECB Opinion Paper is recommending dropping CSDR mandatory buy-ins, as it takes a look at CSDR settlement discipline and assesses how well market participants have adapted to the cash penalties regime. 

I mentioned at the top that I’ve been currently consulting on a new product for the Securities Financing market, Modified Repo. It could solve a lot of liquidity issues for broker/dealers, CCPs, seclending agents, mREITs, pension funds, municipalities, money funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, corporate credit unions, ETFs, hedge funds, asset managers, and other sectors.  If you get a chance, ask me about it.

Upcoming Securities Financing Conferences:

IMN-25th Beneficial Owners’ European Securities Finance & Collateral Management Conference, London, 9/13/22. In person.

RMA-Securities Finance and Collateral Management Conference, Key Biscayne, FL, 10/10-10/13/22 in person. I will be there and looking forward to seeing you all!

Securities Trading Association (STA)-89th annual Market Structure Conference, Washington, DC, 10/12-10/14/22 hybrid, in person and streamed.

Finadium-Rates & Repo Conference 2022, 11/02/22, NYC hybrid, streamed and in-person reception the following week.

Securities Finance Times-Securities Finance Technology Symposium, 11/22/22, London, in person.

Federal Reserve News:

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 2.25-2.50% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). When I last wrote, the target rate was still 1.50-1.75%, but then the Fed on 07/27/22 announced a hike of 75bp in the target rate. It wasn’t quite the 100bp that many market participants were expecting, but it was still a big move. It will have a ripple effect on mortgage rates (particularly floating rate mortgages), prices, and consumer demandIt was part of the  Fed’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy to combat rampant inflation. The last inflation reading was a historic 9.1%. But, simultaneously, GDP showed two negative consecutive quarters, the definition of a Recession. What is a Federal Reserve to do?  Actually, the Fed has 2 main missions: Keep inflation in check (around 2%) and keep the unemployment rate at a low equilibrium level. It is not charged with keeping stocks from collapsing, supporting GDP, or other economic tasks, in its mission. Having  been a Fed watcher for my whole career, I know better than assuming one can predict the Fed’s behavior or what is Fedspeak and what is genuine foretelling. So, on Friday, Chairmen Powell threw a curve of Fedspeak in, following the 75bp increase in the Fed Funds target rate by the FOMC, he ‘observed’ that economic growth had slowed (a nod to the GDP figures), and wouldn’t ‘commit’ to another telegraphed 75bp rate hike in September. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will spin on a dime and stop raising rates and go fight lack of economic growth. We used to call this “irrational exuberance”, which like previously, has led to a rebound in the stock market. The Fed generally does not turn on a dime, or more specifically Fed policy does not usually turn on a dime. It is more like a supertanker that slowly changes course. In fact, I would liken it to the 3 decisions of a trader: buy, sell, or do nothing. Once it embarks on say Easing, it usually goes to a Neutral period, before embarking on Tightening. Except for huge economic crisis, like 2008, the Fed rarely moves right from one policy to the opposite policy immediately. Don’t forget, Powell did not retract the Fed officials’ June projection of the Fed Funds rate reaching 3.8% in 2023, which is currently 50bp higher than where the market is pricing it now. 

The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks.  

The next FOMC meetings are:  09/21/22, 11/02/22, and 12/14/22. All of the scheduled meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we were in. 

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight. Note that the Fed has the nomenclature backwards, it is actually Repoing securities out of the Reverse Repo Program and taking cash IN from its perspective. As if Repo nomenclature, bid and offer, and acronyms weren’t hard enough for everybody. 

The FOMC in July 2021 issued an additional statement regarding “Repurchase Agreement Arrangements”. It announced the establishment of a domestic Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). Both facilities are intended to be backstops to the money market.

There is talk in the market that the Fed is now going to be challenged to taper US Treasury purchases alongside a shrinking deficit. Also, it will be challenged to explain what it is doing in clear messages in this environment. Maybe the Fed should officially end forward guidance, as Bloomberg suggests? 

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. It has been extremely active and these are fairly strong quakes. There is some definite concentration in the South Pacific.

08/23 5.8 Balleny Islands region

08/23 4.8 SW of Meulaboh, Indonesia

08/23 5.2 SE of Pangai, Tonga

08/23 6.2 S of Pagar Alam, Indonesia

08/23 4.5 ESE Ofunato, Japan

08/23 5.0 W of Tual, Indonesia

08/23 5.4 Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

08/23 5.2 Pacific-Antarctic Ridge

08/23 4.5 S of Fiji Islands

08/23 4.8 NNE of Kon Tum, Vietnam

08/23 4.6 WNW of Tyrnavos, Greece

08/23 4.5 WSW of Lebu, Chile

08/22 4.5 WNW of Cold Bay, Alaska

08/22 4.5 WSW of Tingloy, Philippines

08/22 4.6 SW of Khost, Afghanistan

08/22 4.5 WSW of Santa Cruz, California

08/22 4.5 SSE of Cuauhtemoc, Mexico

08/22 5.5 SE of Nusa Dua, Indonesia

08/22 5.1 central Mid-Atlantic Ridge

08/22 5.3 NNE of Yonakuni, Japan

Weather:

Summer Heat waves continue to rage across parts of the United States, setting record highs and have affected over 140 million people. The heat has brought dangerous conditions in the Northwest, south-central US, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Well-organized areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to pose a threat for flooding in Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. There is a seemingly endless hose of monsoonal and Gulf of Mexico moisture that has created almost a conveyor belt of heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Southwest to the central Appalachians. These valleys and mountains are now quite vulnerable to flash flooding, as well as rising creeks and rivers. It has caused unprecedented flooding in Texas, in the desert Death Valley National Park, Zion National Park, etc., closing many of them. Death Valley NP will reopen weeks after devastating flooding. 

In Florida, we have had nonstop 92-97 degree heat, sometimes with Sahara desert dust (creating a greenhouse heat effect and affecting everyone’s allergies), or brutal breezeless humidity, shooting us up continually into 100-110 degree heat indices.  Last week was the same pattern every day, with intense afternoon thunderstorms. It’s very hard for anyone to do much outside, particularly sports like golf, as it is usually 90 degrees by 9am. I and others have suffered from heat exhaustion in attempting to play in the sun.

I welcome another new resource for the Repo Commentary, the World Weather Information Service, started in June 2022, covering 3,447 cities. Since June and July 2022, persistent, record-breaking heat waves have affected parts of Europe, sending temperatures soaring into triple digits, causing wildfires, evacuations, and heart-related deaths. In June, temperatures of 40-43 C (104-109 F) were recorded in parts of Europe, with the most severe temperature anomalies in France. The second heatwave occurred in mid-July and extended north to the United Kingdom, where temperatures surpassed 40 C (104 F) for the first time ever. The highest temperature recorded during this round of heatwaves is 47.0 C in Pinhao, Portugal on 07/14/22. For Fahrenheit users, that’s 47.0 x 9/5 +36=116.6 F. The heatwaves are believed to be part of a permanent climate change in Europe. Climatologists linked the extreme heat to the impact of climate change, and experts predict that changes in the jet stream as a result of climate change will cause heat waves with increasing frequency in Europe. Furthermore, they note that due to the jet stream, the increase in heatwaves for European countries is 3 to 4 times higher than for other countries in northern mid-latitudes, such as the US. Meteorologists blame the June heatwave on a rare interaction between the high pressures that generate atmospheric stability, Tropical Storm Alex, the strong sunshine of the boreal summer and an air mass emanating from North Africa that entered the Iberian Peninsula loaded with suspended dust and sand, which led to a haze over the area. Last year, July 2021, Europe was dealing with devastating floods. 

Top US earth scientists from NASA and NOAA announced Thursday that 2021 was among the hottest years on record, the 6th hottest for average global surface temperature, to be precise. That makes the last 8 years the 8 warmest in over 140 years of reliable record-keeping. Temperatures in 2021 were nearly 2 degrees hotter than average temperatures in the late 1800s. But, more importantly, NASA and NOAA both issued warnings for the decades-long trend of upward temperatures. With current carbon-cutting commitments from global nations, the world is on track to warm by some 5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would have extreme, disastrous environmental consequences. We are already seeing some of those consequences, according to both organizations, including extreme fires, severe deluges, destabilized ice sheets, ocean heating, sea level rise, great disruptions to animal life, and vector-borne diseases (creatures that infect us with pathogens, like mosquitoes and ticks). President Biden’s administration has been focusing recently on climate change and even is discussing the radical use of massive windfarms for the Gulf of Mexico to replace the traditional offshore oil rigs there. 

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  On 12/09/21, CSU issued an extended forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. La Nina pattern should keep the area less active, after two consecutive years of higher-than-average named storms. La Nina has the opposite effect from El Nino, which is when Pacific waters are warmed and there tends to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. La Nina tends to cool Pacific waters. In 2021, ocean water temperatures hit a record high average temperature. 2021 was the third most active hurricane season on record for named storms with 21 named storms and 7 hurricanes. 2020 had 30 named storms and 2005 had 28 named storms.

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. 

Sports News:       

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

In the 2021 pandemic-impacted season, in the World Series, the Atlanta Braves shocked the sports world by beating the favored Houston Astros 4 games to 2. 

The 2022 season is almost two-thirds through.

My Red Sox never showed up this year. They had a good few streaks, but currently they are in the cellar of the AL East, where the high-flying Yankees hold a commanding lead, despite becoming more human lately, with a summer slump. The Moreno family is exploring selling the Angels. Ironically, they are probably the most under-performing baseball team with the greatest talent in MLB. They had one of the best players all-time, until recently, Albert Pujols. They have the best player every year, Mike Trout, and the best phenom, Ohtani, who is one of their best hitters and pitchers. Even retiring Albert Pujols has been on a tear lately. Pujols just tied Barry Bonds for the most pitchers (449) ever homered off all-time. It was the 693rd HR of his career, putting him only 21 behind Babe Ruth. Something you don’t see often, the Twins turned a triple play for the second time this season, this time against the Rangers. It was the 17th triple play in Twins history. The latest standings show the Yankees in first in AL East, the Guardians in first in the AL Central with the Twins and White Sox on their heels, and the Astros well ahead in the AL West. In the NL East, the Mets have a lead over the Braves, the Cards have a lead over the Brewers in the NL Central, and the Dodgers are crushing everyone in the NL West. Dodger great announcer Vin Scully died on 08/02/22 at age 94. 

Golf:

The PGA season is winding down or heating up, depending on your perspective. Yes, they played the 4 majors. And, yes, one of them was called the Players Championship. But, that’s a misnomer. Anyway, the whole year, players have been building up their FedEx Cup points, which eventually lead a certain number to the first leg of the FedEx Cup Championship (kinda like the Triple Crown in horse racing). The second leg was held this past weekend at the BMW Championship in Wilmington, DE. Each leg, the field is reduced to just the top number of players. The finale will be this week at East Lake Golf Club. Will Zalatoris was ranked No.3 in FedEx Cup points, so would have been a favorite to win the FedEx Cup Championship and would have started the tournament at -7. I forgot to explain that depending on placement in the preceding legs of the Cup, a player is given an advantage or disadvantage of strokes. So, although Cantlay won the BMW Championship, the FedEx Cup leader ahead of him is Scott Scheffler, who sits at -10 going into the Championship. The reason I bring up Zalatoris is that he injured himself, badly, in the 3rd round of the BMW Championship, herniating 2 discs in his back. So, he has withdrawn from the real Championship. He gets all the great exemptions for the 2023 season. But, he can’t get the $18 million winner’s check. Not only that, had he played and held on to 3rd place, he would have at least gotten a check for $5 million. But, because he withdrew, he is immediately dropped to last place in this stage, which is only 30 golfers. He will only get a check for $500,000. Only. He’s also out for next month’s Presidents Cup. Yeah, did I say that this is the end of the 2022 PGA Season? Well, not yet.

Here’s a subject that it is irritating for a lot of Floridians. I got into a major discussion this past weekend with some golfers. Florida, for a long time, boasted that it was the mecca of golf. Not only is the PGA headquartered here, but so is the USGA, and the LPGA. In addition, almost every top golfer in the world, not just the USA, now lives here. In Palm Beach Gardens and Jupiter, at least 12 top pro golfers live. So, it is complete consternation that the PGA has decided to move to Houston, TX and, in fact, just unveiled its state-of-the-art headquarters.  Previously, they were headquartered at very dated PGA National (where the Honda Classic is held). And, if that isn’t enough, in 2020, the USGA announced that it was moving its second headquarters and its tournaments from its World of Golf Village location in St. Augustine, FL to the Pinehurst (Southern Pines course) in North Carolina, “the home of American golf.” It is also moving its main headquarters from current facility in Liberty Corner, New Jersey. The USGA’s huge museum and library will be staying in New Jersey. 

Perhaps in response to the LIV, the PGA just announced its 2022-2023 schedule of 44 regular-season tournaments and has increased the purses to a record $428.6 million in prize money. In other golf news, former Masters champion and current LIV Golf golfer, Patrick Reed, has just sued Golf Channel and Golf Channel analyst, Brandel Chamblee, for $750 million in alleged damages, saying that Chamblee has been mean to him and has hurt his career. Seriously?? This is what it says in the suit, filed in Houston: “Golf Channel and Brandel Chamblee have conspired as joint tort-feasors for and with the PGA Tour, it’s (sic) executives and it’s (sic) commissioner Jay Monahan, to engage in a pattern and practice of defaming Mr. Reed, misreporting information with falsity and/reckless disregard for the truth…purposely omitting pertinent key material facts to mislead the public, and actively targeting Mr. Reed since he was 23-years-old to destroy his reputation, create hate, and a hostile work environment for him…” Hilariously, it goes on to say that Chamblee’s analysis has led fans to taunt Reed! So, now if a professional athlete doesn’t like the way he is portrayed by analysts or sports networks, likely because of his poor play or abilities, he can sue them? We may as well extend that to Hollywood and allow every actor or actress who got a bad review from a critic to sue that critic, because that review affected box office sales on a movie or a play, and that hurt the actor’s feelings and pocketbook. Tom Weiskopf died on 08/21/22 at age 79.

NFL:

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. It was the first time that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

The 2021 NFL season ended with a dramatic playoff schedule of many close and Overtime games. In the end, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals (who were the worst team in the NFL only 2 years ago), 23-20. It was only the second time (and in a row) that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

We have begun preseason for 2022 NFL season. In fact, I thin the finale is 09/12.  Tampa Bay’s No.1 and the NFL No.1 probably wide receiver, Mike Evans, hurt his hamstring already. QB Tom Brady also needed to take 11 days off of practice and preseason to handle a personal issue. I think it may be a family health issue. TE Rob Gronkowski who was going to come out of retirement again to join Brady on the Bucs, thought better of it and stayed retired. That’s okay, because the Bucs added about 4 pro-bowl receivers and a couple of star tight ends, so they’ll probably be okay. So, Deshaun Watson was originally suspended for 6 games of the 2022 season. The NFL negotiated a deal with the NFLPA to suspend him for 11 games (season is 16 games) and fine him $5 million. So, the Browns, who seemed intent on hoarding QBs and 1st-round draft picks, lost their starting QB for 11 games this season. Deshaun is running the scout team. Jacoby Brissett has been slated to start the first 11 games.  QB Joshua Dobbs is expected to be their No.2 QB, or No.3 if you are including Watson. The Browns’ No.1 pick and previous starting QB whom they traded to the Panthers will be their opposing QB in Game 1 of the season.  Ironically, as Baker Mayfield stands under center against the Browns, the Browns are still paying him $10.5 million salary this year. Panthers QB Sam Darnold is now the No.2 QB on that team. Weirdly, there is a connection there. Mayfield was picked No.1 in the 2018 Draft by the Browns and Darnold was picked No.3, two spots behind him, by the Jets. The Seahawk’s coach Pete Carroll says that the team will take its time to decide on a starting QB between Geno Smith and Drew Lock. Their season opener will be against the Denver Broncos with new QB Russell Wilson. Ravens RB Gus Edwards is out for at least 4 weeks of season with a knee injury. Chargers CB J.C.Jackson had ankle surgery and will be out 2-4 weeks. Commanders DE Chase Young is out first 4 weeks of season with a knee injury. Washington will retire QB Sonny Jurgensen’s No.9 jersey during the 2022 season. 

NHL:

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic. In the end, The Tampa Bay Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions, beating the Montreal Canadiens 4-1. 

The 2021-2022 season began on 10/20/21. It ended with a spectacular playoff schedule. The Tampa Bay Lightning tried to 3-peat as Stanley Cup Champions, but ultimately lost to the Colorado Avalanche. 

The Carolina Hurricanes have added veteran center Paul Stastny. The Bruins made the fans happy (me included) by re-signing captain Pierre Bergeron and center David Krejci.  ASU has named its new multi-purpose arena, and Coyotes home, Mullett Arena. Some of you will remember playing golf with me at one of the conferences on that Ping course in sleet!  There are a lot of trade rumors swirling. The Oilers are supposedly planning on targeting Patrick Kane and Phil Kessel. Bruins Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy are both sidelined for the first couple of months of the season. 

NBA:

The 2020-2021 NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The 2021-2022 NBA season had a normal 82-game schedule and the Finals were won by the Warriors over my Boston Celtics in an exciting series. The NBA has decided to retire the late Bill Russell’s jersey for all teams. 

The Nets and Kevin Durant have agreed to “move forward” together. There are teams looking at Lakers Carmelo Anthony. Crypto.com Arena has announced plans to upgrade the home of the Los Angeles Lakers. The Suns will bring back the “Sunburst” uniform for 2022-23. Haslem is set to return to play for the Heat for his 20th consecutive season with one team, joining Kobe Bryant and Dirk Nowiztki in that feat. LeBron and Tatum shined at the abbreviated CrawsOver, a star-studded pro-am game. There is a blood donation rumor out there about Magic Johnson.

Auto Racing:

The NASCAR Cup Series of 2022 has begun. Here is the 2022 schedule and winners:

02/06/22 Busch Clash at LA Memorial Coliseum-Joey Logano

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona-Brad Keselowski

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona-Chris Buescher

02/20/22 DAYTONA 500-Austin Cindric

02/27/22 Wise Power 400 Fontana,CA-Kyle Larson

03/06/22 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas-Alex Bowman

03/13/22 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix-Chase Briscoe

03/20/22 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta-William Byron

03/27/22 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Austin-Ross Chastain

04/03/22 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway-Denny Hamlin

04/09/22 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville-William Byron

04/17/22 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol-Kyle Busch

04/24/22 GEICO 500 at Talladega-Ross Chastain

05/01/22 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover-Chase Elliott

05/08/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington-Joey Logano

05/15/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas-Kurt Busch

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Open at Texas-Daniel Suarez 

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas-Ryan Blaney

05/29/22 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway-Denny Hamlin

06/05/22 NASCAR Cup Series at WWTR in Illinois-Joey Logano

06/12/22 Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway-Daniel Suarez

06/26/22 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway-Chase Elliott

07/03/22 Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY at Road America-Tyler Reddick

07/10/22 Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart at Atlanta-Chase Elliott

07/17/22 Ambettor 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway-Christopher Bell

07/24/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway-Chase Elliott

07/31/22 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Indianapolis-Tyler Reddick

08/07/22 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan-Kevin Harvick

08/14/22 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond-Kyle Larson

08/21/22 Go Bowling at The Glen, Watkins Glen

08/27/22 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona

09/04/22 PLAYOFFS round of 16: Southern 500 at Darlington

09/11/22 PLAYOFFS: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

09/17/22 PLAYOFFS: Bass Pros Shops Night Race at Bristol

09/25/22 PLAYOFFS round of 12: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas

10/02/22 PLAYOFFS: YellaWood 500 at Talladega

10/09/22 PLAYOFFS: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte

10/16/22 PLAYOFFS round of 8: South Point 400 at Las Vegas

10/23/22 PLAYOFFS: Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami

10/30/22 PLAYOFFS: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

11/06/22 PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIP at Phoenix 

Formula One integrity is hanging in the balance after failure to publish an Abu Dhabi report.  There was a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. F1 has announced another 23-race F1 calendar for 2022. Here is the 2022 schedule and here are the winners. Hamilton hasn’t won a single race yet, which is a shock. And Verstappen seems to be winning most of them:

03/20/22-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix-Leclerc

03/27/22-Saudi Arabia-Verstappen edged Leclerc

04/10/22-Australia Heineken-Leclerc

04/24/22-Italy Rolex Gran Premio Dell-Emilia Romagna-Verstappen

05/08/22-United States Crypto.com Miami-Verstappen

05/22/22-Spain Pirelli Gran Premio de Espana-Verstappen

05/29/22-Monaco-Perez

06/12/22-Azerbaijan-Verstappen   

06/19/22-Canada-Verstappen

07/03/22-Great Britain-Sainz

07/10/22-Austria Grosser Preis Von Osterreich-Leclerc

07/24/22-France-Verstappen

07/31/22-Hungary Magyar Nagydij-Verstappen

08/28/22-Belgium Rolex 

09/04/22-Netherlands Heineken Dutch

09/11/22-Italy Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia

09/25/22-Russia VTB

10/02/22-Singapore

10/09/22-Japan

10/23/22-United States Aramco

10/30/22-Mexico

11/13/22-Brazil Heineken

11/30/22-Abu Dhabi Etihad Airways

IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  The 2022 schedule and the winners:

02/27/22 St. Petersburg-Scott McLaughlin

03/20/22 Texas-Josef Newgarden

04/10/22 Long Beach-Josef Newgarden

05/01/22 Barber-Pato O’Ward

05/14/22 Indy Road Course-Colton Herta

05/29/22 Indy 500-Marcus Ericsson

06/05/22 Detroit-Will Power

06/12/22 Elkhart Lake-Josef Newgarden

07/03/22 Mid-Ohio-Scott McLaughlin

07/17/22 Toronto-Scott Dixon

07/23/22 Iowa-Josef Newgarden

07/24/22 iowa-Pato O’Ward

07/30/22 Indy Road Course-Alexander Rossi

08/07/22 Nashville-Scott Dixon

08/20/22 St. Louis-Josef Newgarden

09/04/22 Portland

09/22/22 Laguna Seca

Travel News:

Most people think that vehicle crashes and deaths are an equal-opportunity health problem. That is not true. According to the CDC, lower-income people are much more likely to die in crashes. Also, the racial gaps are quite large, larger even than racial gaps on cancer deaths. This gap (8.21 Blacks per 100,000, 6.81 Latino, 6.33 White, 1.42 Asian) is even more notable now that the US is experiencing an alarming increase in vehicle deaths. The Secretary of Transportation says it is “a national crisis of fatalities and serious injuries on our roadways.” It is much more alarming than I ever knew.  More than 115 Americans died on average every day this year. Experts are still puzzled by the cause of the increase, though many point to distracted driving and less aggressive policing of speeders as possible influences. 

Low-cost Icelandic airline, Play, plans to launch flights from Washington Dulles International. British Airways plans to cut 5,000 round-trip flights this Winter. Royal Caribbean and Celebrity Cruises will now accept at-home negative COVID-19 test results for unvaccinated passengers. You can’t turn the news on without hearing about all the flights that are being cancelled every day in the US, either due to lack of flight attendants, able pilots, air traffic controllers, or other FAA personnel. Now there is a new interactive website from the Department of Transportation that will show cancellation and delay policies for US airlines. It will be launched in the coming weeks (09/02) and represents an effort by the DOT to arm passengers with information amid widespread summer travel chaos. The key feature of the website is a section of travelers’ options when there is a cancellation or delay that was “due to circumstances within the airline’s control.” DOT Secretary Buttigieg said directly in a letter to all airlines, “When passengers do experience cancelations and delays, they deserve clear and transparent information on the services that your airline will provide, to address the expenses and inconveniences resulting from these disruptions,” adding the “level of disruption Americans have experienced this summer is unacceptable.” The DOT has requested “at a minimum” that airlines provide meal vouchers for traveler who experience a delay of 3 hours or more, as well as lodging for traveler who are forced to wait overnight at an airport. The DOT has also proposed a rule change that would require airlines to issue a refund if a domestic flight is delayed by more than 3 hours. Airlines across the US and the world have experienced widespread problems over the summer, which have generally been blamed on a combination of staffing shortages and air traffic control issues. In total, more than 100,000 flights have been canceled in the US so far this year and nearly 1 million flights have been delayed. According to the DOT, US airlines have delayed about 24% of domestic flights and canceled about 3.2% of flights in the first six months of 2022. Several airlines cut back on summer schedules in an effort to keep up, but some have extended those efforts into the fall, especially American Airlines and United Airlines. American Airlines is cutting 31,000 flights ahead of holiday season. The Cayman Islands is eliminating all COVID-19 travel restrictions. Did you know that many countries now require proof of return when flying or sailing there? You need to have proof that you have a return flight or sailing back to the US, or they won’t let you enter that country. I believe this is to cut down on illegal immigration. If you have a work visa or temporary visa to be in the country, that would also suffice. I had a friend who was traveling to the Bahamas where his boat happens to be and he had to show proof of return to the US, in order to gain entry into the Bahamas. Some Venice tourists have been fined over $1500 and called out by the Mayor for riding motorized surfboards down the Grand Canal. Yuck, I’ve seen what that water looks like. Great Smoky Mountains National Park will begin charging parking fees starting next year. You can island hop around Hawaii for $39 on Southwest Airlines through the end of the year. ExpressJet Airlines, a subsidiary of United, has filed for bankruptcy. Airbnb is continuing to crack down on parties with new booking technology. You can bring your car along on your next Amtrak trip with the $39 auto train sale. Frontier is celebrating new routes with a $69 flight sale. You can now take a seaplane from NYC to Washington, DC. Airbnb US hosts earned more than $300 million last Labor Day Weekend. According to Airbnb, these are the most popular US destinations for Labor Day weekend:

  1. Columbus, OH (?)
  2. Raleigh, NC
  3. Tampa, FL
  4. North Kingstown, RI
  5. Jacksonville, FL
  6. Cambridge, MA
  7. San Francisco, CA
  8. Reno, NV
  9. Saint Petersburg, FL
  10. North Charleston, SC

Health News:  

As of today (08/24/22), globally, over 6.458,487 people have died from COVID-19.  More than 597,810,083 (08/24/22) people have been confirmed infected with COVID-19. The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world, 1,041,517. The next COVID-19 booster shots will target Omicron. The boosters will be bivalent and include both the original vaccine formula, as well as a component that targets Omicron. 

The COVID-19 pandemic, one of the deadliest in history, triggered severe social and economic disruption around the world, including the largest global recession since the Great Depression. Widespread supply shortages, including food shortages, were caused by supply chain disruption. The resultant near-global lockdowns created an unprecedented reduction in pollution. Educational institutions, public areas, and entertainment venues were partially or fully closed, as were businesses and restaurants, and many events were cancelled or postponed. Misinformation circulated through social media and mass media, and political tensions dramatically increased. The pandemic raised issues of racial and geographic discrimination, health equity, and the balance between public health goals and individual rights. Resultant business restrictions and remote working permanently restructured the economy, leading to workers leaving jobs and changing careers, and businesses severely reduced or permanently shuttered. The impact of the lack of skilled workers now in certain industries and at certain levels of workforce hierarchy is still being felt today, expressed in the airline industry’s cancellations of flights, restaurants restricted hours or tables, commercial real estate vacancy increases, etc. due to lack of workers. 

President Biden’s wife, the First Lady, has now tested positive for COVID-19, shortly after her husband tested positive for the second time in a month. He is now negative.

The CDC has decided to do an “ambitious” massive overhaul of the agency, in light of the many missteps it had during the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, a week later, Dr. Fauci decided that he will relinquish his duties at CDC and semi-retire, after nearly 4 decades, beginning in December. He has been the de facto ‘fall guy’ for anything negative related to COVID-19. For those of you who live under a rock and don’t get these pestering phone calls and emails, there are many lawsuits and a class action suit against the Marine Corps Camp Lejeune by soldiers and their families, who served there between August 1953 and December 1987, due to alleged contaminated water on base. The side effects allegedly include:

  • Bladder cancer
  • Cardiac birth defect
  • Female infertility
  • Hepatic Steatosis
  • Miscarriage
  • Neurobehavioral Effects
  • Other Cancers
  • And more

I just wanted to make sure you and your family knew, before I block the emails from coming in.

Cannabis for chronic pain has been linked to a slightly increased risk of arrhythmia, according to a preliminary study. A new study shows that skipping breakfast can negatively affect your child’s physical and mental health. What they eat and where they eat are also important. A new study finds that some people with Monkeypox may not have symptoms. A new CDC investigation finds that even with appropriate cleaning and surface disinfection, monkeypox virus is still detectable on most surfaces. The FDA has approved a new version of HUMIRA Biosimilar known as HADLIMA to treat certain types of arthritis and other autoimmune disorders. The CDC is investigating if Romaine Lettuce is the source of the recent E.coli outbreak that has caused 29 illnesses and 9 hospitalizations in Michigan and Ohio. Hearing Aids will soon be available over-the-counter, without prescriptions, at drugstores this fall, due to a new ruling by the FDA. The latest TikTok trend is dangerous, which is no surprise with TikTok trends. Videos claiming that you can improve the quality of your sleep and reduce snoring by duck-taping your mouth shut, is being labeled dangerous by many health experts. There is now a nationwide recall of Capri Sun, as total of 5,760 cases of the drink have been voluntarily recalled by the brand’s parent company, Kraft Heinz. Officials in NYC say that polio has been detected there and may be spreading among unvaccinated New Yorkers, with hundreds of cases unaccounted for.  Baby gear manufacturer 4moms has recalled their MamaRoo Baby Swing, and RockaRoo Baby Rockers due to a strangulation risk from an unsecured strap.

Animal News:

Two Argentine paddleboarders were surrounded by 12 whales, which swam next to them for about an hour.  The FDA is taking steps to move away from animal testing and experts say that this may ultimately lead to the development of more effective medications for humans. Bird flu has killed at least 700 vultures at Georgia animal sanctuary. A 61-year-old Florida postal worker is dead after she was mauled by 5 dogs. Her vehicle broke down on Sunday in Putnam County, and she was attacked by the dogs while working on the vehicle. A neighbor with a firearm shot it in the air to try to dissuade the dogs, which was unsuccessful. Other neighbors and the dogs’ owner joined to pull the animals off the woman. The animals were then seized by authorities and will be euthanized. Animal Control officials had visited the dogs’ home at least twice in the last three years. Michigan officials are probing mystery canine parvovirus-like disease after over 30 dogs die. One of the world’s largest moths has been detected in the US. It has a wingspan of 10 inches and was spotted in Washington State. A capuchin monkey is believed to have dialed 911 from a California zoo, Zoo to You, near Paso Robles, sending San Luis Obispo County Sheriff’s deputies to the location. A 10-year-old boy has lost part of his leg, after shark attack while on vacation in the Florida Keys. 

Entertainment News:

Singer/Actress Olivia Newton-John died on 08/08/22. She was 73 and had fought cancer three times over the last decade. She is best known for being one of the earliest successful crossover artists from country to pop music. She is equally as well known for her iconic role as Sandy in the movie GREASE.  She was one of my favorites. Actress Anne Heche died on 08/12/22 at age 53, after succumbing to injuries she received in a car accident in which the car drove through an entire house. 

Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez got re-married at his antebellum home south of Savannah, GA. They got married in one of those Elvis chapels in Las Vegas earlier this summer. John Boyega says he is done with the STAR WARS franchise. Snoop Dogg is presenting a children’s series Doggyland-Kids Songs & Nursery Rhymes. I don’t know what to say. Modern Family star Sarah Hyland married Wells Adams. Andrew Garfield reveals “starving” himself for his role in movie SILENCE. Scott Disick suffered minor injuries in a car accident over the weekend. Ten months after the shooting on the RUST set, Alec Baldwin says he still thinks about it every day. A League of Their Own gets a makeover from the successful movie, in an ambitious but uneven new Amazon series. I know, can’t we create new movies and series, or is there no originality or creativity left in Hollywood? Sylvester Stallone’s wife of 25 years has just filed divorce here in Palm Beach County.

I need to see JURASSIC WORLD (which is the 6th installment in the Jurassic franchise), OPERATION MINCEMEAT (2021), AVATAR: THE WAY OF THE WATER (2022), UNCHARTED (2022), BULLET TRAIN (2022), and THE GRAY MAN (2022). But, these are the ones that I HAVE seen and my 1-10 rating:

2021 Movies

NO TIME TO DIE                                8.0

NOBODY                                              7.5

WRATH OF MAN                               7.0

STILLWATER                                     7.0

THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS   7.0

THE CARD COUNTER                      6.5

THE UNFORGIVABLE                      6.0

HOUSE OF GUCCI                            5.0

GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE     4.0

2022 Movies

TOPGUN: MAVERICK                      8.8

ELVIS                                                    8.5

WATCHER                                           6.5

Technology & Space News:

The WSJ reports that startup Fintech lenders that hold bank charters are giving more attention to attracting deposits as a source of capital to, as interest rates rise and the credit quality of many retail customers is deteriorating. They are now looking for long-term investors with the patience to ride out a downturn and for new buyers of the loans they originate. The FTC has dropped Mark Zuckerberg from lawsuit seeking to block Meta’s latest VR acquisition. Meta has reached a $37.5 million settlement of Facebook location tracking lawsuit. A former Twitter executive is blowing the whistle on the company. He says that Twitter is vulnerable to Russian and Chinese influence. He alleges reckless and negligent cybersecurity policies. Twitter has warned employees that their bonuses could be cut in half this year. The timing of the whistle blower may have an impact on Elon Musk’s attempt to takeover Twitter. He has just subpoenaed the former CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey. Instagram is testing a new feature that looks just like rival BeReal. Apple has issued an emergency security alert. You should probably update your Apple devices right now!  A monumental case looks to crack open the world of auto-warranty robocalls. A spacewalk at the ISS was cut short by an issue with Russian cosmonaut’s spacesuit. One controller said to him, “Drop everything and start going back right away.” NASA has just released sound from a black hole that sounds very spooky and is getting a lot of attention on Twitter. NASA has proudly moved its new super-rocket, Artemis, to the launchpad, its first such rocket in 50 years. It is taller than the Statue of Liberty and will be unmanned the first couple of times to the Moon. Later it will be manned and those astronauts have been undergoing extensive training for months now, mostly in swimming pool labs. Artemis is intended to give NASA an early lead in the Moon race with China, who intends to eventually set up a base there with Russia. So, this time the space race is with China. The US also intends to build a base on the Moon and more than 20 nations have signed on to the American-led Artemis program to explore the Moon. Artemis is intended to go to the Moon and eventually go to Mars.

US News:

Liz Cheney, former Republican Senator from Wyoming, lost the Republican Primary on 08/16 to a Trump-supported Republican. Cheney, daughter of infamous Dick Cheney, chaired the Senate investigation into the Washington, DC riots on January 6, and has been very critical of former President Trump. She now is considering a Presidential run to stop Trump from being re-elected.  A Democrat beat a Republican in a New York Congressional race, which some see as a bellweather of the national mood. Now that Lake Mead has been going dry with its decades-long drought, officials have found 5 bodies, sunken boats, and a ghost town, so far. Lake Mead, which is located below the Hoover Dam on the Nevada-Arizona border. The water surfaced there has dropped more than 143 feet since 2000. The water surface is now at the same level that it was in 1937, when the lake was filling up after the Hoover Dam had just been built. Those of you with children are probably aware that, as part of the pandemic governmental aid, school lunches in the US were free for two years, feeding 26 million students. Well, that program has just ended and is having an impact on the financial well-being, especially of, families on the border of still qualifying for some aid. President Biden was able to get his sweeping Inflation Reduction Act into law. The new US law contains wins for land conservation and for farmers, but it misses opportunities for school lunch programs and soil erosion prevention. It makes a significant move, $400 billion, against Climate Change, but it is late for the US to get in the battle. It is intended to promote domestic production of clean energy technology and generally retrofitting America to survive climate change. If all goes to plan, the Act would reduce US emissions by 40% by 2030. There are many tax credits and rebates for Americans to buy electric vehicles (EVs), install heat pumps and better insulation, and put solar panels on their roofs. It could result in several thousands of dollars per household. Cleverly, the government chose not to take the hard road of meaningful action on climate change by an actual phaseout of use of fossil fuels and go up against the huge lobbies. Instead, the government turned to the tax code, and used public money to fund the public good of mass decarbonization. That new demand to get large tax credits will then spur huge development in product suppliers and fuel that industry, leading to an overall increase in awareness and position for climate change fighters. Most analysts believe that Nordstrom has arguably the best-looking department stores and customer service in clothing retailers. But, even those attributes aren’t enough to lure consumers to spend money on discretionary purchases like clothing, with inflation raging. The company is even feeling the pinch at the Nordstrom Rack clearance items at their discounted outlet stores. So, it continues to take even steeper markdowns on its items. The slowing demand environment will cause a $200 million hit to profits in the second half of the year at Nordstrom. It is emblematic of other industries relying on discretionary spending. Its profit warning and red flag commentary caused a 15% drop in its stock price today in pre-market trading. 

International News:

In the Russia/Ukraine war, Russian authorities are accusing the Ukraine for carrying out the car bombing that killed Daria Dugina, 29, an ultranationalist commentator who was very pro-Putin. Ukraine has denied responsibility. As we approach the six-month anniversary of the war, Ukraine’s President warned citizens of potential intensified action by Russia on the anniversary. Money for programs to help Ukrainians has been robust, but the war has drawn funding away from other crises, per the UN. The Thai court has suspended the PM and coup leader Prayuth. There are now no fuel imports to UK from Russia for the first time. Imports of goods from Russia fell to GBP 33 million in June, the lowest level since 1997. Peru is suing an oil company, Repsol, for $4.5 billion over an oil spill of 10,000 barrels that it sees as the worst ecological disaster around Lima in recent memory. An underwater pipeline owned by the company caused a tsunami-size oil spill in January, when an Italian-flagged oil tanker, Mare Doricum, was unloading at Repsol’s La Pampilla refinery.  There is also an ongoing criminal investigation into Repsol’s executives. In South Africa, thousands of strikers in a nationwide strike against the high cost of living are demanding government action. Passengers were recently stuck for hours inside the Channel Tunnel between England and France. India has fired its Air Force officers for a missile misfire. China is in the midst of its worst drought on record. The UN Secretary General Guterres is shocked by the resumption of Ethiopia fighting and has called for “an immediate cessation of hostilities.” Fighting has resumed in Ethiopia’s civil war in the north of the country, after a 5-month ceasefire. Tigray forces deny that a plane was shot down by the Ethiopian federal government and that it was carrying weapons for Tigray from Sudan. 

Florida:

The Brightline train has struck a person again in Florida. Oddly, on the same day, the commuter Tri-Rail, also struck a person on the other track in Palm Beach County.

Here’s a look at new restaurants in 2022 for Palm Beach County:

  • Casa Cana-North Tequesta (opened February)
  • Lewis Steakhouse (sister to Okeechobee Steakhouse)-Jupiter/Indiantown (opened May)
  • Taco Shack-Jupiter/Abacoa (opened July)
  • Rembar-Jupiter/Bluffs (opened May)
  • AquaGrille-Juno Beach (opened March)
  • Mystic Lobster Roll Company-Juno Beach (opened April)
  • Double Roads Tavern w stage-Jupiter (relocating)
  • HoneyBelle-Palm Beach Gardens/PGA National (opened February)
  • Voodoo Bayou-Palm Beach Gardens/Downtown (opened February)
  • Cactus Grille and Tequila Bar-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross (opened January)
  • Legends Tavern & Grill-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross (opened May)
  • Ela (Indian)-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross
  • El Camino-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened June)
  • Zona Blu-West Palm Beach/Okeechobee (opened April)
  • Pig Beach BBQ-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened June)
  • Common Grounds Brew and Roastery-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened February)
  • Bodega Taqueria y Tequila-West Palm Beach/Clematis (opened February)
  • Mockingbird at The Regional-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened February)
  • The SoSo-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened April)
  • Hive Bakery Café-West Palm Beach/S. Dixie (opened March)
  • Sweetgreen-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened January)
  • Kosher Chobee-West Palm Beach/Okeechobee (opened June)
  • Sicilian Oven-Wellington Mall (opened June)
  • Bar 25-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave. 
  • The Falcon-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave (opened May)
  • The Gringo-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave (opened March)
  • Akira Back-Delray/Pineapple (opened March)
  • The Blue Dog Cookhouse and Bar-Boca Raton (opened April)
  • Mister 01 Extraordinary Pizza-Boca Raton (opened March)
  • Ah-Beetz-Delray Beach (opened May)
  • Spadella-Delray Beach (opened November)

I would list all of the restaurants that closed during the pandemic for good, even just the ones that had been open for at least 15 years, but I’m afraid the list might be longer, and depressing.

Repo Commentary-8/2/22

I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry. I have recently completed several projects (below) and am looking to lend my almost 40 years of expertise to firms via consulting or via full-time positions.

  • I designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo, consulting with Pierpoint’s Finance Academy. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo
  • I continue to share my opinion and expertise with the industry through articles in various periodicals.
  • I have been consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.  
  • I have been consulting for 2 years on a new product for the Repo market, Modified Repo, which could solve many industry issues, from liquidity to balance sheet optimization, to even Firesale Risk. 
  • I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums. 

So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, contact me at 

(646-753-1300) mobile

(jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or 

On LinkedIn

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under at work or even remotely. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former employers and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better! 

Holidays or Events (08/02):

  • Day of Azerbaijani cinema (Azerbaijan)
  • Our Lady of the Angels (Costa Rica)
  • Paratroopers Day (Russia)
  • Republic Day (North Macedonia)
  • Roma Holocaust Memorial Day (Council of Europe, European Parliament)
  • Dinosaurs Day (no not me)
  • National CAD Day
  • National Coloring Book Day
  • National Ice Cream Sandwich Day
  • National Night Out

Some Famous People Born on (08/02):

  • 1696-Mahmud I, Ottoman sultan
  • 1835-Elisha Gray, American businesswoman, co-founded Western Electric
  • 1892-Jack Warner, Canadian-born American production manager and producer, co-founded Warner Bros.
  • 1905-Myrna Loy, American actress
  • 1923-Shimon Peres, Polish-Israeli lawyer, President of Israel
  • 1924-James Baldwin, American novelist, poet, and critic
  • 1924-Carroll O’Connor, American actor, director, producer, and screenwriter
  • 1932-Lamar Hunt, American businessman, co-founded the AFL and World Championship Tennis
  • 1932-Peter O-Toole, British-Irish actor and producer
  • 1939-Wes Craven, American director, producer, and screenwriter
  • 1964-Mary-Louise Parker, American actress
  • 1966-Tim Wakefield, American baseball player and sportscaster
  • 1970-Tony Amonte, American hockey player and coach

Daily Weird Facts:

In Russia, there are 9 million more women than men.

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

“Keep your face to the sunshine and you cannot see a shadow.”—Helen Keller 

Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19 

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

$68.03/barrel on 08/13

$68.06/barrel on 09/09

$90.99/barrel on 02/18/22

$97.28/barrel on 07/22/22

$94.47/barrel on 08/02/22

My West Palm Beach gas station is charging $3.94/gallon, down 25 cents in 2 weeks, and below the national average. 

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates). I did decide to trim this running list to just a few dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

109.59 on 08/13/21

109.92 on 09/10/21

115.15 on 02/18/22

136.03 on 07/21/22

132.15 on 08/01/22

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426 

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

08/13/21 at $1.1797

09/10/21 at $1.1820

02/18/22 at $1.1342

07/21/22 at $1.0236

08/01/22 at $1.0201

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655 

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

08/13/21 at $1.3866

09/10/21 at $1.385

02/18/22 at $1.3583

07/21/22 at $1.2017

08/01/22 at $1.2222

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

1.2515 on 08/13/21

1.2644 on 09/10/21

1.2737 on 02/18/22

1.2877 on 07/21/22

1.2848 on 08/01/22

With data showing continuing price increases and the Fed’s aggressive action to combat that inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation, has become a popular topic again. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce 

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00 

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

08/13/21 $1,781.50

09/09/21 $1,797.20

02/28/22 $1,897.60

07/22/22 $1,728.90

08/02/22 $1,796.90

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18 

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19 

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19 

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!

$46,574.40 on 09/09/21

$67,582.60 on 11/08/21 not a Commentary date, but the all-time high

$35,070.10 on 01/22/22 not a Commentary date, but relevant to show its volatility

$40,015.10 on 02/18/22 

$23,143.10 on 07/22/22

$22,975.30 on 08/02/22

On 3/13/20, just post COVID-19 breakout, Bitcoin had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It made almost exactly a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels, wiping out all 2021 gains. All of a sudden, it began climbing higher again in the Fall of 2021, hitting an all-time high of $67,582.10 on 11/08/21. But, volatility wasn’t over and was not for the faint of heart. The SEC signaled it is willing to take a hard line approach towards cryptoasset regulation and what Chair Gary Gensler has called the “Wild West of finance”, by threatening to sue Coinbase over a plan to offer accounts that pay interest on cryptoasset holdings. This has also intensified the debate about the SEC’s jurisdiction over cryptoassets. All of this led to another massive correction of nearly 50% (again), bringing it down to interim low of $35,070.10 on 01/22/22. Now, as I look at the moves since I wrote the last Repo Commentary, it was about $40,015 then and rallied to $47,454 on 03/28/22. Then it started the long road down, cratering at $18,948 on 06/18/22. It is currently struggling to maintain some upward momentum, but it is creating a long period of stable prices, which may lead to a breakout. The SEC is beefing up its crypto enforcement unit and has just charged a number of people for insider trading. 

Brexit

I was just about to delete Brexit section, especially with PM Boris being unceremoniously hustled out of office. But, then CNN and decided to keep going. So, Brexit apparently badly needs fixing, but no Conservative has been brave enough to say it.

Global Financial News:

Recession chatter is dominating the airwaves. Not inflation. Uncertainty about the US economy has continued to smother M&A activity. About $1 trillion in US deals have been made in the year up to late July, per Dealogic, which is a drop of almost 40% from the same period last year. TD Bank is reportedly close to acquiring investment bank Cowen for more than $1 billion. Financial News reports that institutions have driven a whopping 1800% increase in revenue at Fidelity crypto unit. WSJ reports that HSBC will resume paying full dividends. After the latest 75bp Fed rate hike, the CME saw a large jump in SOFR trading there. The Treasury Department has increased the borrowing estimate for the 3 months ending in September (Q3) by about $262 billion to about $444 billion.  The change partially reflects that the US Treasury’s calculations in May didn’t assume that the Federal Reserve would reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, because the Fed hadn’t yet announced that decision. The US Public Company Accounting Board has said it will accept nothing less than full, unrestricted access to the audit papers of Chinese companies trading publicly in the country. The PCAOB said that if it doesn’t get that complete access to audit working papers, all of the companies in China that are listed on US exchanges would have a trading prohibition in the US. Economists are debating inflationary impact of Senate re

US Market News:

Still at levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is still well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. But, it has retreated since the beginning of 2022, when it set a record high. The aggressive monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve to squash alarming inflation (brought about partly by the huge multi-$trillion injections of money into the economy by the US government to combat the economic disaster brought on by the pandemic), the war in the Ukraine, and negative GDP numbers, gave a 3-punch combo to the stock market. Now, it seems that the negative GDP numbers have given rise to a strange belief that the Federal Reserve will now deftly pull off a pivot to stop raising rates and somehow miraculously save the economy from Recession (or Stagflation). This seems to have led to the latest rebound by the Dow and overall stock market. The latest economic figures actually show a technical Recession, the Fed didn’t stop raising rates but actually raised them 75bp last Wednesday (okay, it wasn’t 100bp as expected, but…), and the war in Ukraine continues. 

Here are the latest DJIA closes (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates): 

02/17/22  34,312.03

01/04/22   36,799.65 all-time record high close

09/08/21  35,031.07

08/13/21  35,515.38

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53 

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 pre-pandemic high

2/18/22     34,079.18

11/8/21     36,432.22

7/21/22     32,036.90

8/1/22       32,798.40

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58 

12/26/18 at 2,467.70 

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

08/13/21 at 4,468.00

09/09/21 at 4,493.28

01/03/22 at 4,796.56 all-time high

02/17/22 at 4,380.26

07/21/22 at 3,955.47

08/01/22 at 4,118.63

S&P has drifted from its all-time high at the beginning of the year.

Nasdaq closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high 

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95 

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

08/13/21 at 14,822.90 

09/08/21 at 15,286.64 

12/27/21 at 15,871.26 all-time high

02/17/22 at 13,716.72

07/21/22 at 12,059.61

08/01/22 at 12,368.98

Nasdaq managed to reach its all-time high before 2021 ended, but has suffered a 20% drop since, as tech has gotten hit hard.

The US Treasury market is focused on Inflation, the Fed’s aggressive tightening policy, and Ukraine and Russia. Two-year yields are now way back to where they were almost exactly four years ago. Yesterday, Bank of America strategist said that if the US economy slows significantly, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury Note could fall to 2% within 6-12 months. In the last 11 days, the 10-year yield has dropped 33bp to 2.58%. 

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28% 

05/10/20 at 0.16% 

07/24/20 at 0.14% 

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%

09/09/21 at 0.23%

02/17/22 at 1.49% what a dramatic change, as the Fed moved into tightening policy to rein in inflation

07/21/22 at 3.10%

08/01/22 at 2.90%

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21

09/09/21 at 0.43%

02/17/22 at 1.70% back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.07%

08/01/22 at 2.82%

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38% 

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 0.79%

02/17/22 at 1.85% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.00%

08/02/22 at 2.66%

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63% 

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24% 

07/14/21 at 1.11%

08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.08%

02/17/22 at 1.94% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 2.99%

08/02/22 at 2.64%

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65% 

12/06/19 at 1.84% 

02/06/20 at 1.65% 

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02% 

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37% 

08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.30%

02/17/22 at 1.97%

07/21/22 at 2.91%

08/01/22 at 2.60% 

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21

09/09/21 at 1.90%

02/17/22 at 2.31% 

07/21/22 at 3.08%

08/02/22 at 2.92%

Housing News:

The 

Repo/Securities Financing News:                              

BNY Mellon recently announced the first phase of the new user interface for their flagship application, AccessEdge.  In Securities Finance Times, CEO Brian Ruane goes into more depth about this and the bank’s growing collateral business. My buddy, Mark Faulkner, in the same issue, discusses Credit Benchmark’s approach to securities lending indemnification (and double indemnification), always a hot topic. EquiLend has launched EquiLend RegTech Solutions, a new division developed to aid clients in meeting global regulatory requirements. The division will be led by Kevin McNulty, former CEO of ISLA. Delta One has announced the launch of an equity finance trading platform. 

My friend, Rob Goobie, at HOOPP, announced on LinkedIn that the Global Peer Financing Association (GPFA) has added BMO, taking the GPFA to membership with assets over $10 trillion! Awesome job by Rob and GPFA!  As you know, P2P Financing was near and dear to me since 2008 and i’m very happy to see it taking off now and becoming an industry-led official organization to help global members. I just noticed that the upcoming 10/12-10/14 89th Annual Market Structure Conference in Washington, DC, put on by STA (Security Traders Association), is going to feature “Fireside Interviews” as panel presentations. This was an idea I pushed to our industry organizations to include in our conferences years ago. It’s a fireside chat, making the audience feel like they are privileged to be listening in on a private conversation, with a moderator who acts more like a newscaster interviewing people. Apparently, a few of my ideas were ahead of their time.

I mentioned at the top that I’ve been currently consulting on a new product for the Securities Financing market, Modified Repo. It could solve a lot of liquidity issues for broker/dealers, CCPs, seclending agents, mREITs, pension funds, municipalities, money funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, corporate credit unions, ETFs, hedge funds, asset managers, and other sectors.  If you get a chance, ask me about it.

Upcoming Securities Financing Conferences:

IMN-25th Beneficial Owners’ European Securities Finance & Collateral Management Conference, London, 9/13/22. In person.

RMA-Securities Finance and Collateral Management Conference, Key Biscayne, FL, 10/10-10/13/22 in person. I will be there and looking forward to seeing you all!

Securities Trading Association (STA)-89th annual Market Structure Conference, Washington, DC, 10/12-10/14/22 hybrid, in person and streamed.

Finadium-Rates & Repo Conference 2022, 11/02/22, NYC hybrid, streamed and in-person reception the following week.

Federal Reserve News:

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 2.25-2.50% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). When I last wrote, the target rate was still 1.50-1.75%, but then the Fed on 07/27/22 announced a hike of 75bp in the target rate. It wasn’t quite the 100bp that many market participants were expecting, but it was still a big move. It will have a ripple effect on mortgage rates (particularly floating rate mortgages), prices, and consumer demandIt was part of the  Fed’s aggressive tightening of monetary policy to combat rampant inflation. The last inflation reading was a historic 9.1%. But, simultaneously, GDP showed two negative consecutive quarters, the definition of a Recession. What is a Federal Reserve to do?  Actually, the Fed has 2 main missions: Keep inflation in check (around 2%) and keep the unemployment rate at a low equilibrium level. It is not charged with keeping stocks from collapsing, supporting GDP, or other economic tasks, in its mission. Having  been a Fed watcher for my whole career, I know better than assuming one can predict the Fed’s behavior or what is Fedspeak and what is genuine foretelling. So, on Friday, Chairmen Powell threw a curve of Fedspeak in, following the 75bp increase in the Fed Funds target rate by the FOMC, he ‘observed’ that economic growth had slowed (a nod to the GDP figures), and wouldn’t ‘commit’ to another telegraphed 75bp rate hike in September. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will spin on a dime and stop raising rates and go fight lack of economic growth. We used to call this “irrational exuberance”, which like previously, has led to a rebound in the stock market. The Fed generally does not turn on a dime, or more specifically Fed policy does not usually turn on a dime. It is more like a supertanker that slowly changes course. In fact, I would liken it to the 3 decisions of a trader: buy, sell, or do nothing. Once it embarks on say Easing, it usually goes to a Neutral period, before embarking on Tightening. Except for huge economic crisis, like 2008, the Fed rarely moves right from one policy to the opposite policy immediately. Don’t forget, Powell did not retract the Fed officials’ June projection of the Fed Funds rate reaching 3.8% in 2023, which is currently 50bp higher than where the market is pricing it now. 

The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks.  

The next FOMC meetings are:  09/21/22, 11/02/22, and 12/14/22. All of the scheduled meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we were in. 

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight. Note that the Fed has the nomenclature backwards, it is actually Repoing securities out of the Reverse Repo Program and taking cash IN from its perspective. As if Repo nomenclature, bid and offer, and acronyms weren’t hard enough for everybody. 

The FOMC in July 2021 issued an additional statement regarding “Repurchase Agreement Arrangements”. It announced the establishment of a domestic Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). Both facilities are intended to be backstops to the money market. 

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. The South Pacific is getting active, particularly in the Philippines and Fiji. South America is getting active, particularly in Chile. Those areas are on either edge of the Pacific Rim plate.

07/28 5.2 SW of Jiquilillo, Nicaragua

07/28 4.5 Owen Fracture Zone region

07/28 4.5 N of Besao, Philippines

07/28 4.9 NNE of Jamestown, Saint Helena

07/28 6.1 NW of Tocopilla, Chile

07/27 4.8 S of Fiji Islands

07/27 4.7 S of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

07/27 4.7 E of Yujing, Taiwan

07/27 5.0 ENE of Bantay, Philippines

07/27 6.2 ENE of Calama, Chile

07/27 4.9 Luzon, Philippines

07/27 4.9 S of ‘Ohonua, Tonga

07/27 5.5 S of the Fiji Islands

07/27 4.7 WSW of Ternate, Indonesia

Weather:

Summer Heat waves continue to rage across parts of the United States, setting record highs and have affected over 140 million people. They have also severely tested various power grids, particularly the one in Texas, which is made up of many parts that are 50-years-old. The heat has brought dangerous conditions in the Northwest, south-central US, and parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas on Thursday. Well-organized areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to pose a threat for flooding in the eastern Ohio Valley and Four Corners regions today, especially in Kentucky, West Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico. There is a seemingly endless hose of monsoonal and Gulf of Mexico moisture that has created almost a conveyor belt of heavy rain and thunderstorms from the Southwest to the central Appalachians. These valleys and mountains are now quite vulnerable to flash flooding, as well as rising creeks and rivers. Flooding in Kentucky has killed at least 37 people and left at least 30 others missing. 

In Florida, we’ve been fortunate that, despite mid-90s temperatures and humidity around 70%, sending heat indices to over 100 degrees, the strong Sahara winds coming off the Atlantic have really cut our precipitation and sheared any major storms from forming. 

I welcome another new resource for the Repo Commentary, the World Weather Information Service, started in June 2022, covering 3,447 cities. Since June and July 2022, persistent, record-breaking heat waves have affected parts of Europe, sending temperatures soaring into triple digits, causing wildfires, evacuations, and heart-related deaths. In June, temperatures of 40-43 C (104-109 F) were recorded in parts of Europe, with the most severe temperature anomalies in France. The second heatwave occurred in mid-July and extended north to the United Kingdom, where temperatures surpassed 40 C (104 F) for the first time ever. The highest temperature recorded during this round of heatwaves is 47.0 C in Pinhao, Portugal on 07/14/22. For Fahrenheit users, that’s 47.0 x 9/5 +36=116.6 F. The heatwaves are believed to be part of a permanent climate change in Europe. Climatologists linked the extreme heat to the impact of climate change, and experts predict that changes in the jet stream as a result of climate change will cause heat waves with increasing frequency in Europe. Furthermore, they note that due to the jet stream, the increase in heatwaves for European countries is 3 to 4 times higher than for other countries in northern mid-latitudes, such as the US. Meteorologists blame the June heatwave on a rare interaction between the high pressures that generate atmospheric stability, Tropical Storm Alex, the strong sunshine of the boreal summer and an air mass emanating from North Africa that entered the Iberian Peninsula loaded with suspended dust and sand, which led to a haze over the area. Last year, July 2021, Europe was dealing with devastating floods. 

Top US earth scientists from NASA and NOAA announced Thursday that 2021 was among the hottest years on record, the 6th hottest for average global surface temperature, to be precise. That makes the last 8 years the 8 warmest in over 140 years of reliable record-keeping. Temperatures in 2021 were nearly 2 degrees hotter than average temperatures in the late 1800s. But, more importantly, NASA and NOAA both issued warnings for the decades-long trend of upward temperatures. With current carbon-cutting commitments from global nations, the world is on track to warm by some 5 degrees Fahrenheit, which would have extreme, disastrous environmental consequences. We are already seeing some of those consequences, according to both organizations, including extreme fires, severe deluges, destabilized ice sheets, ocean heating, sea level rise, great disruptions to animal life, and vector-borne diseases (creatures that infect us with pathogens, like mosquitoes and ticks). President Biden’s administration has been focusing recently on climate change and even is discussing the radical use of massive windfarms for the Gulf of Mexico to replace the traditional offshore oil rigs there. 

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  On 12/09/21, CSU issued an extended forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. La Nina pattern should keep the area less active, after two consecutive years of higher-than-average named storms. La Nina has the opposite effect from El Nino, which is when Pacific waters are warmed and there tends to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. La Nina tends to cool Pacific waters. In 2021, ocean water temperatures hit a record high average temperature. 2021 was the third most active hurricane season on record for named storms with 21 named storms and 7 hurricanes. 2020 had 30 named storms and 2005 had 28 named storms.

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. 

Sports News:       

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

In the 2021 pandemic-impacted season, in the World Series, the Atlanta Braves shocked the sports world by beating the favored Houston Astros 4 games to 2. 

The 2022 season just hit its midpoint and held the All-Star Game, which the American League won 3-2. It was the least watched MLB All-Star Game ever.  Maybe because of the contract negotiation nonsense. Julio Rodriguez, of the Mariners, won the Homerun Derby. He beat Juan Soto of the Nationals, just after news broke that the Nats are considering trading Soto. There was even some more Soto-dissing, as his flight landed at 1:30am before the Home Run Derby, after the Nationals refused to charter a flight, after he turned down another contract offer.  

The Hall of Fame induction ceremony at Cooperstown last weekend for 7 people was outstanding! David Ortiz made it into a triumph, with many Twins, Red Sox, and Dominican Republic fans in attendance. There are now 340 members of the MLB Hall of Fame, and only 268 of them were former ballplayers. That is a very small percentage of the 20,161 ballplayers (as of 07/22/22) who have played in the Major Leagues. It is a very exclusive club to earn your way into. 

After the creation of a new Competition Committee, commissioner Rob Manfred can finally implement new rules more quickly than in the past, and the indications are that MLB will have big changes prior to 2023. Two of those changes will be the pitch clock (currently being used in the Minor Leagues) and limits on the Infield Shift by fielders. 

The trade deadline for MLB is today at 6pm, and has already caused a flurry of activity. My Red Sox were involved, performing the very rare trade of a player, Red Sox longtime catcher Christian Vazquez, to the team in the other dugout, after batting practice and just before the first pitch was thrown. He left the field in a Red Sox batting jersey, then walked over to the other dugout to don his new Astros jersey. The Red Sox are in last place in the AL East, after starting out strong before the All-Star break and then hitting a 7-18 skid. The Red Sox picked up catcher Reese McGuire from the White Sox to take Vazquez’s place. The Red Sox also are finalizing a trade to bring over OF Tommy Pham from the Reds. The Astros added star 1B Trey Mancini. It looks like two-way phenom MVP Shohei Ohtani will remain with the Angels, but the Yankees and Padres made ‘serious’ offers.  The Yankees got reliever Scott Effross from the Cubs. Braves designated for assignment star Robinson Cano and obtained an INF from the Nationals. Brewers traded starter Josh Hader to Padres for 2 relievers. Yankees picked up Frankie Montas from the A’s. The Braves and Austin Riley agreed to a 10-year/$212 million contract extension. 

Golf:

The PGA Tour 2020-2021 season was an expanded one, due to COVID-19 related cancellations and postponements, mostly in 2020. Although most touring pros play between 20 and 30 tournaments in the season, the actual season was comprised of an expanded 50 official PGA events. 

The upcoming golf tournament schedule has the PGA at 

LIV Golf frontman, Greg Norman, claims in an interview that he offered Tiger Woods between $700 million and $800 million to join the rogue tour.  Woods declined the offer and has since denounced the Saudi-backed rogue league. Perhaps in response to the LIV, the PGA just announced its 2022-2023 schedule of 44 regular-season tournaments and has increased the purses to a record $428.6 million in prize money.  

NFL:

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. It was the first time that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

The 2021 NFL season ended with a dramatic playoff schedule of many close and Overtime games. In the end, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals (who were the worst team in the NFL only 2 years ago), 23-20. The Rams did not cover the 4 point spread. Rams WR Cooper Kupp was named the MVP of the Super Bowl and the game was played coincidentally in the Rams’ brand new home stadium, which cost $5.2 billion to build. It was only the second time (and in a row) that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

QB Kyler Murray, on Thursday, reportedly agreed to a 5year/$230.5 million extension with the Cardinals. The Browns, perennially involved in the top pick of the Draft and an insatiable appetite for new QBs in the last 7 years, have decided that they do want another QB, but it won’t likely be Jimmy Garapolo. They paid up for QB Deshaun Watson as their No.1 QB, despite the likelihood that he will be suspended for sexual abuse charges for at least part of 2022 season by the NFL. No.2 QB Jacoby Brissett will step up to No.1 for now. They have A.J. McCarron and Josh Rosen working out now for the No.2 position. That would make Joshua Dobbs the No.3, until Watson comes off suspension. Since the 2018 Draft, Josh Rosen has been QB for the Falcons, the Cardinals, the Dolphins, the Bucs, and the 49ers. Reportedly, the Browns are still looking at QB Cam Newton! What is it with their fascination for collecting QBs??? Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has reported to training camp on Thursday, amidst contract questions. The Cowboys’ classic helmets will return for Thanksgiving Day game. The Bills are hoping to make the Super Bowl with QB Josh Allen, or there will be personnel changes. There are rumors, started by his girlfriend, that TE Rob Gronkowski will come out of retirement (again) to play football this season. I hope he knows that the Bucs just signed TE Kyle Rudolph, likely Gronk’s replacement. On Monday, NFL QB Deshaun Watson, now of the Cleveland Browns, found out that he will be suspended only 6 games this season, instead of 12 games, and will not be fined for multiple counts of sexual misconduct. 

NHL:

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic. In the end, The Tampa Bay Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions, beating the Montreal Canadiens 4-1. 

The 2021-2022 season began on 10/20/21. It ended with a spectacular playoff schedule. The Tampa Bay Lightning tried to 3-peat as Stanley Cup Champions, but ultimately lost to the Colorado Avalanche. 

NHL is now in free agency time, and my Boston Bruins, who did okay in last season’s playoffs, are rumored to be interested in Flames star Matthew Tkachuk. Niederreiter got a 2year deal with the Predators. Kapanen has signed with the Penguins. The Bruins have yet to re-sign their 36-year-old Captain, Bergeron. Other free agents available still are: Kadri, Kessel, Stastny, Klingberg, Subban, Yandle, and Holtby.

Cycling:

In cycling, Aneemiek van Vleuten won the Tour de France Femmes.

Soccer:

In association football, UEFA Women’s Euro 2022 has concluded with England defeating Germany in the Final. 

NBA:

The 2020-2021 NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The 2021-2022 NBA season had a normal 82-game schedule and the Finals were won by the Warriors over my Boston Celtics in an exciting series. The Summer League has just completed, sort of their developmental league and spring training. Kings’ Keegan Murray has been named MVP of Summer League. The Summer League title went to the Portland Blazers. 

Auto Racing:

The NASCAR Cup Series of 2022 has begun. Here is the 2022 schedule and winners:

02/06/22 Busch Clash at LA Memorial Coliseum-Joey Logano

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona

02/20/22 DAYTONA 500

02/27/22 Wise Power 400 Fontana,CA

03/06/22 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas

03/13/22 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix

03/20/22 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta

03/27/22 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Austin

04/03/22 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway

04/09/22 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville

04/17/22 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol

04/24/22 GEICO 500 at Talladega

05/01/22 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover

05/08/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington

05/15/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Open at Texas 

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas

05/29/22 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

06/05/22 NASCAR Cup Series at WWTR in Illinois

06/12/22 Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway

06/26/22 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

07/03/22 Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY at Road America

07/10/22 Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart at Atlanta

07/17/22 Ambettor 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

07/24/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway

07/31/22 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Indianapolis

08/07/22 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

08/14/22 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond

08/21/22 Go Bowling at The Glen, Watkins Glen

08/27/22 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona

09/04/22 PLAYOFFS round of 16: Southern 500 at Darlington

09/11/22 PLAYOFFS: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

09/17/22 PLAYOFFS: Bass Pros Shops Night Race at Bristol

09/25/22 PLAYOFFS round of 12: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas

10/02/22 PLAYOFFS: YellaWood 500 at Talladega

10/09/22 PLAYOFFS: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte

10/16/22 PLAYOFFS round of 8: South Point 400 at Las Vegas

10/23/22 PLAYOFFS: Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami

10/30/22 PLAYOFFS: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

11/06/22 PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIP at Phoenix 

Formula One integrity is hanging in the balance after failure to publish an Abu Dhabi report.  There was a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. F1 has announced another 23-race F1 calendar for 2022. Here is the 2022 schedule and here are the winners:

03/20/22-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix

03/27/22-Saudi Arabia

04/10/22-Australia Heineken

04/24/22-Italy Rolex Gran Premio Dell-Emilia Romagna

05/08/22-United States Crypto.com Miami 

05/22/22-Spain Pirelli Gran Premio de Espana

05/29/22-Monaco

06/12/22-Azerbaijan

06/19/22-Canada

07/03/22-Great Britain

07/10/22-Austria Grosser Preis Von Osterreich

07/24/22-France

07/31/22-Hungary Magyar Nagydij

08/28/22-Belgium Rolex 

09/04/22-Netherlands Heineken Dutch

09/11/22-Italy Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia

09/25/22-Russia VTB

10/02/22-Singapore

10/09/22-Japan

10/23/22-United States Aramco

10/30/22-Mexico

11/13/22-Brazil Heineken

11/30/22-Abu Dhabi Etihad Airways

IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  The 2022 schedule and the winners:

02/27/22 St. Petersburg

03/20/22 Texas

04/10/22 Long Beach

05/01/22 Barber

05/14/22 Indy Road Course

05/29/22 Indy 500

06/05/22 Detroit

06/12/22 Elkhart Lake

07/03/22 Mid-Ohio

07/17/22 Toronto

07/23/22 Iowa

07/24/22 iowa

07/30/22 Indy Road Course

08/07/22 Nashville

08/20/22 St. Louis

09/04/22 Portland

09/22/22 Laguna Seca

Travel News:

Tourists in Sri Lanka are being warned as Goa taxi protest turns violent. A new industry of yoga retreats has risen for World Cup widows in Brazil. Thailand is set to lose some 1.6 billion Euros in tourism revenue. India is going to cut red tape and finally issue visas on arrival. Qatar Airways has new all-business class flights. There has been a dramatic rise in British travelers visiting Germany. Wait! Did you know that British English spells that ‘travellers’, but American English spells that travelers? It like ‘cancelled’ and ‘canceled’, but not like ‘advertise’ and ‘advertize’. I always liked the way the British call an elevator a ‘lift’. What do you call it when you want to go down? For that matter, the Spanish call it an ‘ascensor’ to ascend, so what do they call it when they want to go down?  Have I digressed, or maybe regressed? See, you’re even learning new languages in the Repo Commentary!  The London to Glasgow (Scotland) train will host a comedy gig. Croatia’s GBP 444 million Chinese-built bridge on the Adriatic coast has finally opened. It is a stunning 1.5-mile-long structure that allows access to the ancient walled city of Dubrovnik. I’ve been there! It’s awesome! If you live in Great Britain and want the cheapest spot for the 2022 school summer vacation, that would be a sunny beach in Bulgaria. The most expensive spot would be Ibiza. Mont Blanc has become more difficult to climb. During a normal climbing season (summer), 100-120 climbers would summit Mont Blanc every day. This year, the number is down to just about a dozen. The reason is that there have been many more rockfalls and resultant gaping crevices.  It is now far more treacherous than in the past. Mont Blanc is not the only global peak that is suffering from less visitors. Mauna Kea, on the big island of Hawaii, is home to a cluster of observatories that provide a unique view of the skies. Concerns there are that too many observatories have been built and there is too much human activity degrading the Mauna Kea as a natural treasure. That may now change, as a new law is designed to help bring the cultural significance of the mountain back into focus. Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia continues to flood on a frustratingly regular basis, as it is sinking. Officials have not developed effective countermeasures yet, per National Geographic. On Monday, there was an emergency landing by a single-engine plane in Raleigh-Durham, NC. The aircraft was missing a landing gear and had to land on a roadway on its belly.  And, that’s not the weird part. When emergency crews got to the successfully landed plane, they found it empty. The pilot and co-pilot have disappeared. They don’t know if the jumped before landing or if they just ran off after landing. There is a manhunt for them now.

Health News:  

As of today (08/01/22), globally, over 6.401,337 million people have died from COVID-19.  More than 577,818,293 (08/01/22) people have been confirmed infected with COVID-19. The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world, 1,030,150. The COVID-19 pandemic, one of the deadliest in history, triggered severe social and economic disruption around the world, including the largest global recession since the Great Depression. Widespread supply shortages, including food shortages, were caused by supply chain disruption. The resultant near-global lockdowns created and unprecedented reduction in pollution. Educational institutions, public areas, and entertainment venues were partially or fully closed, as were businesses and restaurants, and many events were cancelled or postponed. Misinformation circulated through social media and mass media, and political tensions dramatically increased. The pandemic raised issues of racial and geographic discrimination, health equity, and the balance between public health goals and individual rights. Resultant business restrictions and remote working permanently restructured the economy, leading to workers leaving jobs and changing careers, and businesses severely reduced or permanently shuttered. The impact of the lack of skilled workers now in certain industries and at certain levels of workforce hierarchy is still being felt today, expressed in the airline industry’s cancellations of flights, restaurants restricted hours or tables, commercial real estate vacancy increases, etc. due to lack of workers. 

President Biden tested positive for COVID-19, shortly after I published the 07/22 Repo Commentary. He tested negative and went back to work, but then tested positive over the weekend. 

While you were working, a new psychological term was borne. Prolonged Grief Disorder has been the new diagnosis for being stuck in an endless loop of grief. I don’t know what to say or feel about that. Loss of smell is now considered a warning sign of Alzheimer’s. But, this brings into question, what if you lose your sense of smell because of COVID-19, which has happened to many people? Well, new findings suggest there might be a connection between Covid-related loss of smell and cognitive impairment, but experts say more research is needed. The study tracked 766 adults ages 55 to 95 for a year after their infection. Nearly 90% had a confirmed case of Covid and all completed regular physical, cognitive, and neuropsychiatric tests over the course of one year. Two-thirds of those infected had some type of cognitive impairment at the end of that year. In half of the participants, the impairment was severe. 

Animal News:

While you were sleeping, the Murder Hornet or Asian Giant Hornet, got a new, friendlier name. The Entomological Society of America announced on 7/25/22 that the common name for this species is now “northern giant hornet”. It was believed that the name ‘’murder hornet’’ unfairly villainized insects, the foundation of our food web. Insects already have a bad perception, and these giant hornets are not called ‘murder hornets’ in Japan, where they are native. People murder people, hornets don’t murder. It is a kind of anthropomorphism (ascribing human characteristics to non-human entities). The Los Angeles Animal Services will hold its first-ever pet adoption event at Dodger Stadium. Whale sharks are the world’s biggest omnivores, scientists have discovered. Polar bears are flocking to open landfills in the Arctic as climate change diminishes sea ice, according to a new study, and a few annoying TV ads. We are in the midst of Shark Week (along with the real one reported on by the media every day), which is being hosted by Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson on the Discovery Channel. Did you know that Shark Week has been running for a whopping 34 years? Sharks are older than the dinosaurs and even trees. NYC beaches were briefly closed for swimming last week, after multiple shark sightings. A 560-million-year-old tentacled creature may be the animal kingdom’s first known predators. Scientists uncovered a fossilized animal from the Ediacaran period which is likely related to modern jellyfish. Earlier this year, a bold theory that claimed Tyrannosaurus Rex was actually 3 separate species has been stomped on, and a new study refutes that claim. Monarch butterflies, teetering “on the edge of collapse,” have been added to the endangered species list. The migratory majestic monarchs are threatened by habitat loss, pesticide use, herbicide use, and climate change. An extremely rare white humpback whale washed up dead on an Australian beach. The world’s oldest male panda ever in captivity, has died at age 35, after weeks of ‘deteriorating health’ in a Hong Kong zoo.  In other panda news, scientists believe they have created a facial recognition computer program for pandas. Scientists have pinpointed the exact moment in evolutionary time when mammals became warm-blooded. They analyzed the ears of 341 living and extinct species and found it to be 233 million years ago, 19 million years later than scientists previously thought. They say it also happened far more quickly than the researchers expected. The closest living relative of extinct “Bigfoot” has been found. The massive, extinct primate was twice as tall as an adult human. This original Bigfoot (Gigantopithecus blacki) was a shaggy, bipedal ape which roamed the forests of Southeast Asia, before going extinct hundreds of thousands of years ago. It stood about 10 feet tall and weighed up to 595lbs. very few fossils of the massive creature have been found, thousands of teeth and only 4 partial jaws. Researchers found that the extinct “Bigfoot” isn’t a close human relative, like chimpanzees and bonobos. Rather, the gene sequences that most resembled this creature, belongs to modern orangutans, and the giant ape’s lineage is thought to have split from its cousin’s around 10-12 million years ago. 

Entertainment News:

Paul Sorvino died on 07/25 at age 83. He was a brilliant actor, famous for rolls in several mafia movies, including GOODFELLAS.  He also was an accomplished opera singer and sculptor, a true Renaissance man. Besides GOODFELLAS, he was in a lot of TV shows, like Law & Order. But, why anyone who is reading this Repo Commentary should really care about his passing is because he was also in REPO! THE GENETIC OPERA. Lol. I’m sure it was the other Repo. Allright, I looked it up and the great singer, Sarah Brightman, famous for all of her Andrew Lloyd Webber musical roles. And the great Paris Hilton was in the movie. The movie was about a worldwide epidemic that encouraged a biotech company to launch an organ-financing program similar in nature to a standard car loan. The repossession clause was a killer. Maybe, I should have stopped at Paris Hilton? Another star, Tony Dow, Wally on Leave it to Beaver, has died at age 77, from cancer. His death was actually announced 2 days before he actually died, by his management, when he went into Hospice. Beyonce fans at upset about the reported leak of her ”Renaissance” album. Jennifer Lopez had her 53rd birthday last week, on her honeymoon with Ben Affleck. Her birthday was only days after mine. That and Affleck is a Red Sox fan from Boston, are the only similarities the couple has with me. Rick Astley just celebrated the 35th anniversary of his hit song, “Never Gonna Give You Up”. Brendan Frasier is transforming into a 600-pound man for the movie THE WHALE. Mayim Bialik and Kenn Jennings have finally been named permanent co-hosts of Jeopardy!  The 2022 MTV Video Music Awards are coming up. They still have that one? Do they still have VJs? The 2022 Venice Film Festival is coming up. Adele has announced her new dates for her Las Vegas residency at Caesars Palace. She controversially cancelled her 24 shows previously scheduled for earlier this year, due to her worries about COVID-19 and her unhappiness with the quality of her show. She has been very apologetic to her fans. Her stint in Vegas will start in November and will feature 8 extra shows, for a total of 32. And you thought there was going to be any math on this blog.  Nick Cannon has welcomed his 8th child. He has had children with 5 different mothers. Interestingly, the first 2 children were twins with Mariah Carey and the third set of 2 children were also twins, that time with DJ Abby De La Rosa. Did you know that 17 HARRY POTTER actors have died? Is there something to this witchcraft thing? Chelsea Handler and Jo Koy announced their split with “heavy hearts.” Sophie Turner and Joe Jonas welcomed another child. Khloe Kardashian is expecting a second child with Tristan Thompson. So, I admit I am a Below Deck junkie, watching all the episodes of Below Deck Mediterranean, Below Deck Tahiti, Below Deck Caribbean, and now Below Deck Down Under. So, a chief stewardess on a superyacht said to the DailyMail that it is not like the shows. She said she works 16-hours days, cleaning stuff that is already clean. But, she said she once got an GBP 8,400 tip! I thought the tips were pooled for the whole crew and were given in an envelope, like on the shows? Erika Jayne shoved her male trainer during kickboxing class, after she was served a $50 million racketeering suit for allegedly “conspiring with ex Tom Girardi to steal millions”, related to his alleged Ponzi scheme that has caused a huge scandal on that Real Housewives version. Reese Witherspoon and Ryan Phillippe’s son Deacon will make acting debut in season 3 of Netflix’s Never Have I Ever. Hilaria Baldwin raises some eyebrows as she claims that “enemies” have sought to “destroy” her husband Alec Baldwin, less than a year after actor’s fatal accidental shooting on RUST set. Kevin Hart has teamed up with The Children’s Place to open a brand new community learning center and hand out school supplies in Harlem. Seth Meyers has tested positive for COVID-19. The talk show host, 48, has canceled (did you see that?) several Late Night episodes, as the apologizes to his “loyal viewers”. Ratings for the NBC late night show finally have risen. Sorry, not one of his ”loyal viewers”. He’s always been too ‘in your face’ political for my taste. I like more subtle, like David Letterman or clean humor Jay Leno. Gwyneth Paltrow revealed that she had sex with Halley Bieber’s father Stephen Baldwin “in a bathroom”. TMI. PINOCCHIO trailer reveals Ewan MacGregor as narrator Sebastian J. Cricket alongside Tilda Swinton for Guillermo del Toro’s stop-action movie. Did you know that the Britney Spears’ conservatorship case is still making its way through court? Charlie Sheen has a new TV series Ramble On. Kanye West presented A$AP Bari with a $162,000 Mercedes Maybach SUV, after the clothing designer crashed his previous vehicle. Shawn Mendes has cancelled the rest of his Wonder world tour to focus on his mental health. Mama June Shannon, 42, has weighed in on her daughter, Honey Boo Boo, 16, saying that she is “too young” to undergo non-surgical endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty for weight loss. Will Smith is now addressing the famous Oscars slap on Chris Rock in a new video. Frankly, I’m over it. I thought it was a childish action and I’m pleased and surprised that Chris Rock handled it so well. That’s my opinion, and I happen to be a big Will Smith fan.  But, this was just over the line. Prosecutors in Spain say they will ask a court to sentence Colombian pop star Shakira to 8 years and 2 months in prison, if she is convicted in her expected trial for tax fraud. She is accused of failing to pay the Spanish Government 14.5 million Euros in taxes between 2012-2014. They also want her fined 24 million Euros. As a promotion for the return of traditional menu items, Luke Skywalker (Mark Hamill) returned to working the drive-thru at a Jack in the Box restaurant. He was fired from Jack in the Box as a teenager for impersonating a clown when he worked the drive-thru. No, there were not shenanigans at the McDonald’s drive-thru I worked in Andover, MA for about 7 years (same place Jay Leno worked). 

I’m not a prude, as you well know. However, I have always kept the Repo Commentary as neutral as possible and off of extremely polarizing topics. I have been sensitive to all groups, knowing that my readership includes an enormous diverse bunch of people (we are still using ‘people’, right?). So, I just wonder when the TV censors all quit? It seems that sometime during COVID-19 outbreak that they must have quit or been fired. I grew up with strict censorship on TV, even Prime Time and how much skin you could show, and after Prime Time, which maybe was PG. So, I find myself shaking my head at the outrageously bawdy ads that are now on TV every day!  I don’t want to single out specific companies, but I think you’ve seen them enough that it is all public domain, and I’m not saying anything untrue about them. It could have started with Charmin bathroom tissue, and us all encouraged to “enjoy the Go”. I was like, “where did that come from and how are they allowed to say that?” I think the phrase might be more mainstream now than I thought. As, yesterday, I heard an ad with women discussing the word, “p**p”, as part of the commercial. About 9 months ago (I think that’s coincidental) there was an ad about pre-contraception (I don’t know if that’s a word either), featuring a woman in a pink/red room, which apparently was more than a metaphor for a female sex organ, and she was eagerly waiting her date (also probably a metaphor). I think every time that ad comes on, I sit there with my mouth open in shock. Somehow, about 3 months later, a Dr. Shannon Klingman introduced us to her revolutionary product during dinner hours, called Lume, which she created as an antiperspirant or deodorant, I think deodorant, for the ENTIRE body. She then listed those parts of the body that were not the traditional parts for deodorant, like underarms. I’m sure that there are many others I missed or just developed memory loss for, so I’ll just finish with the one I saw last night (granted, past the prime time), which was about a razor that could be used for certain human hairs, which it not only named and made cartoon characters of, but they sang a song about themselves. Is it just me, am I the “Church Lady” from Saturday Night Live, or am I just old and will soon tell kids to “get off of my lawn?” Beyonce is changing one of her new songs, cutting out a word that people have used as a slur. Lizzo removed the same word from lyrics in June. 

I need to see JURASSIC WORLD (which is the 6th installment in the Jurassic franchise), OPERATION MINCEMEAT (2021), AVATAR: THE WAY OF THE WATER (2022), UNCHARTED (2022), BULLET TRAIN (2022), and THE GRAY MAN (2022). But, these are the ones that I HAVE seen and my 1-10 rating:

2021 Movies

NO TIME TO DIE                                8.0

NOBODY                                              7.5

WRATH OF MAN                               7.0

STILLWATER                                     7.0

THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS   7.0

THE CARD COUNTER                      6.5

THE UNFORGIVABLE                      6.0

HOUSE OF GUCCI                            5.0

GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE     4.0

2022 Movies

TOPGUN: MAVERICK                      8.8

ELVIS                                                    8.5

WATCHER                                           6.5

Technology & Space News:

It is not unusual for me to speak about financial technology or even moderate our industry panels on the subject. After all, at the 3 companies I worked for, I started a version of financial technology, albeit maybe crude compared to today’s standards. The next wave of digital change is upon us and forward-looking companies will take this opportunity to create a competitive advantage in the future. I’m still wrapping my head around the word ‘metaverse’. 

Have you wondered why Elon Musk is launching thousands of satellites? Sometimes, that keeps ME up at night. Well, his company SpaceX is launching its Starlink project, which aims to provide high-speed Internet services from space, to even remote areas of the Earth. Now, you are starting to remember that pledge he made a while ago. Starlink operates in low orbit. While they can link to Earth faster, being low orbit, they have to cover larger areas, so they need more of them. Experts believe that Starlink has launched 3,000 of them into space since 2018. Those same experts, and a few others who were annoyed that they weren’t included in the first batch, surmise (that’s for my mother, who still reads the Repo Commentary, or so she says) that Starlink will massive amounts of infrastructure, like cables and towers, reach remote areas of the Earth. The company already has 400,000 subscribers in 36 countries. It currently costs more than traditional Internet services. There are some other benefits, like when the Russian forces have advanced in Ukraine, they have closed down Ukrainian internet services and tried to block social media. But, Elon Musk made Starlink available in Ukraine immediately after the invasion started. About 15,000 of Starlink’s sets of dishes and routers have been shipped to the Ukraine. They have helped keep things going, like public services and government, according to Starlink. Also, Ukrainian military forces are using it to communicate on the battlefield. Signals cannot be jammed like ordinary radio signals can, and it only takes 15 minutes to set up the kit. 

The detractors point out that putting satellites into low orbit could lead to problems, like hitting other vessels and create fragments of wreckage and more space junk. There have even recently been a number of near misses involving the Starlink satellites, including near misses with China’s space station. Low-Earth orbit space junk could also impair travel into higher orbits, where our navigational satellites and telecoms satellites are situated. 

US News:

An assault-style weapons ban has passed the House, but will probably fail in the Senate. A Wisconsin activist says he committed voter fraud to expose potential voter fraud.  Wait, so you can commit a crime, but then argue it was to expose that it could be done, and be exonerated. Interesting play. Okay, I saw the headline and knew I wasn’t going to like this, Alex Jones’ company has filed for bankruptcy amid the Texas trial to award damages of $150 million to two of the Sandy Hook massacre families. They sued and won a default judgment against Alex Jones’ primary company, Free Speech Systems. Jones had already been found legally responsible in a separate defamation case in Connecticut about claims he made about the 2012 Sandy Hook mass shooting. Three smaller companies tied to Jones declared bankruptcy earlier this year. In a bizarre legal twist, probably to further delay proceedings in the Connecticut trial, Jones also filed a complaint on Thursday against his own company in Connecticut. At least 16 people are dead after Kentucky’s catastrophic flooding and that death toll is expected to rise. St. Louis is reeling from another round of floodwaters. The Republican National Committee has warned former President Trump that it will stop paying his legal bills, if he runs for President again. A female journalist was told her skirt was too short when she was reporting on an Alabama execution. Kansas is weighing new abortion restrictions. No doubt you’ve heard about people seeking an abortion going across state lines to states that have more less-restrictive laws, since the ruling by the US Supreme Court. There is talk that Canada could also become an option for US abortion-seekers. While Canadian clinics are able to serve American women seeking abortions, experts say the country isn’t an ideal solution.  Canada has had abortion decriminalized since 1988, but traveling across the border to seek care in Canadian abortion clinics is generally out of reach for many abortion-seekers in the US, who do not have the resources.  In 2014, half of abortion recipients in the US lived below the poverty line. So, traveling to Canada could include plane tickets, gas, lodging, or other expenses. One of those other expenses could be child care, as approximately 6 out of 10 women who have had abortions are already mothers, according to 2019 data from the CDC. US News is reporting that Europe is now looking at abortion reform. Overall, the book banning issue is getting uglier. The Proud Boys, the far-right group with a history of street fighting, showed up at a drag-queen-hosted story hour for families in a library in San Lorenzo, CA. Some other larger conservative political issues have overlapped and spurred book banning debates, like Florida’s recent so-called “Don’t Say Gay” law.  A judge sentenced Guy Reffitt, a Texas man who brought a pistol and zip ties to the Capitol on January 6 to more than 7 years in prison. Former President Trump endorsed “Eric” in today’s Republican Senate primary in Missouri, but failed to say which rival candidate, both named Eric, he was backing. Several other states have primaries today. 

International News:

A US drone strike this weekend in Kabul, Afghanistan, reportedly the first such attack, since the US left Afghanistan last year, killed the leader of Al Qaeda, who helped plan the 9/11 attacks. He also played roles in the attack on the destroyer USS Cole in 2000 and the 1998 embassy bombings in Africa that killed hundreds of Americans.  

I saw a scary NY Times headline today, “A New Axis”, which looks at the tensions rising in Taiwan, the war in the Ukraine, and seemingly shared interests of China, Russia, and Iran. The three countries, who view the US as an adversary, in the article are being used as a modern-day equivalent to the Axis Powers from WWII. President Biden, himself, has mentioned that the world is breaking into two competing blocs—democracy versus autocracy. Russia, China, and Iran seem to be increasing their cooperation. On Sunday, a makeshift drone explosion hit Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters, wounding 6 people.  Meanwhile, one of Ukraine’s richest men, a grain merchant, was killed in what Ukrainian authorities said was a carefully targeted Russian missile strike on his home. On Friday, a prison where at least 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed, appears to have come from a blast within the building, which is under Russian control. Each side has blamed the other side for the blast. The Russians have refused to let the Red Cross come in and visit the prison to make sure wounded POWs had proper treatment, which violates the Geneva Convention on the rights of POWs. The Ukrainian grain harvest this year is in danger of being half its normal size, because of the war. However, Russia and Ukraine recently reached an agreement that would allow the release of millions of tons of grain held up in Black Sea ports, before they go bad. 

Australian Parliament is considering lifting the 25-year-old ban on euthanasia. There is a US proposal to free WNBA Brittney Griner and former US Marine Paul Whelan for a notorious Russian arms dealer. A former Marine was freed earlier this year, after 3 years in a Russian prison, in a similar prisoner swap. Remember, up until only a decade ago, the US refused to do prisoner swaps (except for the U-2 guy in the ‘50s). 

Meanwhile, there is a situation brewing in China/Taiwan, as China warns the US against intervening in its dealing with Taiwan. The White House is listening to China and apparently not planning to interfere. However, the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, is putting her President and her party in a pickle, as she agreed to a trip to China and a stop in Taiwan. China has said a stop by her in Taiwan would be considered a provocation by the US. Didn’t the US have ONE foreign policy that the administration, the Cabinet, and Congress would follow?

Newly discovered remains found in the search for Natalee Holloway belong to a Caucasian person of European descent, according preliminary DNA tests, and experts say the profile is a match for the missing teenager who was declared dead in 2012. The 18-year-old disappeared in Aruba on May 30, 2005. She was on her last day of a graduation trip on the Caribbean Island with her high school class of 124 fellow graduates, when she didn’t return to her hotel. Holloway’s body was never found, and seven years later, she was declared dead. But, her family has continued a private investigation, particularly into the lead suspect, a Dutch native , who was later convicted of the abduction and murder of another woman in a Peruvian hotel. The new investigation into the bone fragments will be part of a six-part docuseries which premiered Saturday on the Oxygen TV network, The Disappearance of Natalee Holloway.”

It’s not the 1920s or even the 1820s, but rather the 2020s. Yet here we are discussing the growing trend in the US over the past few years, starting with isolated battles to a much broader effort aimed at books about sexual and racial identity. Book-banning efforts are now widespread in the US.  It’s grown from a school issue, to a community issue, and now to a polarizing political issue. Back in the day, some specific parents might hear about a particular book because their child brought a copy home. Now, the many parents can see the material on social media and complain there until it goes viral. Once viral, the complaints spread to other cities, schools, and libraries across the country. Some politicians have used book banning as an issue to argue that inappropriate material is in schools, including books about sexuality, racism, and even history (with an intention to re-write history), typically while pushing their own agenda. Other politicians are seizing on the COVID-19 forced home-schooling to argue that parents, not schools, should control what their children read. 

Florida:

The Brightline train has struck again in Florida. A man was hit and killed this morning in Delray Beach, FL, as he was crossing the tracks. There is no station in Delray Beach, nor was the man crossing at a street crossing.  In January 2020, an AP analysis found that Brightline had the worst death rate per mile of any railroad in the country.  Investigators found that none of the deaths were the railroad’s fault, determining that many were suicides or drivers/pedestrians trying to beat the crossing gates and trains. 

If you’ve been down here to Palm Beach County, you may have noticed a lot of new residential and commercial towers that were just built or are in the process of being built in downtown West Palm Beach, northern Flagler, in The Square (previously Rosemary Square and before that CityPlace), in Palm Beach Gardens near the Mall, and along the railroad tracks. Things are changing dramatically throughout the county, probably most in West Palm Beach. Most of what you remember from CityPlace is gone. Brio, Cantida Laredo, Bruzzi, Blue Martini, Mojitos, Panera, Revolution Bowling, Macy’s, etc. In their place, several tall buildings have gone up, one being built across from Cheescake Factory, which will move into its ground floor when completed. The AMC movie theater will be leaving and replaced by another residential tower. City Cellar restaurant has been joined by newcomer El Camino (ate there Wednesday night and it was fantastic!). it’s in the same spot that used to be Jimmy’s BBQ, Taverna Opa, and FAO Schwartz, if you remember back then. I’m not sure what will happen with Il Belaggio, a fine restaurant by the fountains. The huge space that was once BB Kings, the Palace, Bar Louis, and even Legal Seafood back in the day, and has been empty for 2 or 3 years, is going to be replaced by this residential tower coming. You will notice at least 4 new residential towers just north of The Square, near the Brightline train station. Fun Copper Blues and live stage will be moving to the bowling alley spot, Revolution, where there is a much larger stage and a huge sportsbook-looking room. There are new places over the bridge in Palm Beach too, especially along Poinciana. Here’s a look at new restaurants in 2022 for Palm Beach County:

  • Casa Cana-North Tequesta (opened February)
  • Lewis Steakhouse (sister to Okeechobee Steakhouse)-Jupiter/Indiantown (opened May)
  • Taco Shack-Jupiter/Abacoa (opened July)
  • Rembar-Jupiter/Bluffs (opened May)
  • AquaGrille-Juno Beach (opened March)
  • Mystic Lobster Roll Company-Juno Beach (opened April)
  • Double Roads Tavern w stage-Jupiter (relocating)
  • HoneyBelle-Palm Beach Gardens/PGA National (opened February)
  • Voodoo Bayou-Palm Beach Gardens/Downtown (opened February)
  • Cactus Grille and Tequila Bar-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross (opened January)
  • Legends Tavern & Grill-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross (opened May)
  • Ela (Indian)-Palm Beach Gardens/Donald Ross
  • El Camino-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened June)
  • Zona Blu-West Palm Beach/Okeechobee (opened April)
  • Pig Beach BBQ-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened June)
  • Common Grounds Brew and Roastery-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened February)
  • Bodega Taqueria y Tequila-West Palm Beach/Clematis (opened February)
  • Mockingbird at The Regional-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened February)
  • The SoSo-West Palm Beach/S.Dixie (opened April)
  • Hive Bakery Café-West Palm Beach/S. Dixie (opened March)
  • Sweetgreen-West Palm Beach/The Square (opened January)
  • Kosher Chobee-West Palm Beach/Okeechobee (opened June)
  • Sicilian Oven-Wellington Mall (opened June)
  • Bar 25-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave. 
  • The Falcon-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave (opened May)
  • The Gringo-Delray Beach/Atlantic Ave (opened March)
  • Akira Back-Delray/Pineapple (opened March)
  • The Blue Dog Cookhouse and Bar-Boca Raton (opened April)
  • Mister 01 Extraordinary Pizza-Boca Raton (opened March)
  • Ah-Beetz-Delray Beach (opened May)
  • Spadella-Delray Beach (opened November)

I would list all of the restaurants that closed during the pandemic for good, even just the ones that had been open for at least 15 years, but I’m afraid the list might be longer, and depressing.

Jokes and Such:

At one time, probably before I was born, this was considered the No.1 joke in the world:

  • “I’ve just been on a once-in-a-lifetime holiday. I’ll tell you what, never again!” 

Sorry, just not that funny to me. Now, I have to be careful with some of you and your sensitivities. I’ll try.

  • A woman gets on a bus with her baby. The driver says, “ugh, that’s the ugliest baby I ever seen!” The woman walks to the rear of the bus and sits down, fuming. She says to the man next to her, “The driver just insulted me!” The man says, “you go up there and tell him off. Go on, I’ll hold your monkey for you.”
  • I went to the Zoo the other day. There was only a dog in it. It was shihtzu.
  • Okay, now you know how this is going to go. But, I’m keeping it cleanish.
  • A dyslexic man walks into a bra.
  • A young blonde (sorry) woman fears her husband is having an affair, so she goes to a shop and buys a handgun. The next day she comes home to find her husband in bed with a beautiful redhead. She grabs the gun and hold it to her head. The husband jumps out of bed, begging and pleading with her not to shoot herself. The hysterical blonde tells her husband, “shutup!, You’re next!”
  • Just to show you how clean these can be…I said to the gym teacher, “can you teach me to do the splits?” He said, “how flexible are you?” I said, “I can’t make Tuesdays.”
  • Police arrested two kids yesterday, one was drinking battery acid, the other was eating fireworks. They charged one – and let the other off.
  • Two aerials get married. The ceremony was rubbish – but the reception was brilliant.
  • “Doc, I can’t stop singing The Green, Green Grass of Home. He said: ‘That sounds like Tom Jones syndrome.’ ‘Is it common?’ I asked. ‘It’s not unusual’ he replied.
  • I’m on a whiskey diet. I’ve lost three days already.
  • A man walks into a bar with a roll of Tarmac under his arm and says: “Pint please… and one for the road.”
  • I went to the doctor the other day and said: “Have you got anything for wind?” So he gave me a kite.
  • My mother-in law fell down a wishing well. I was amazed, I never knew they worked.
  • I saw this bloke chatting up a cheetah. I thought: “He’s trying to pull a fast one.”
  • A woman has twins, and gives them up for adoption. One goes to a family in Egypt and is named “Amal”. The other goes to a family in Spain, who name him “Juan”. Years later Juan sends a picture of himself to his mother. Upon receiving the picture, she tells her husband that she wished she also had a picture of Amal. Her husband responds: “They’re twins. If you’ve seen Juan, you’ve seen Amal.” Yeah, I know, you thought I was going to go the wrong direction.
  • Two fish in a tank. One says: “How do you drive this thing?”
  • I went to buy some camouflage trousers the other day – but I couldn’t find any.
  • When Susan’s boyfriend proposed she said: “I love the simple things in life, but I don’t want one of them as a husband”. 
  • My therapist says I have a preoccupation with vengeance.  We’ll see about that.
  • I rang up 9-1-1 and said: “I want to report a nuisance caller.” The operator said: “Not you again.”
  •   Alright, it’s been too clean, I know…After watching STAR WARS with my son for the first time today, he looked up at me and asked, “Daddy, why was R2D2 so dirty?” Puzzled I asked him what he meant. He replied, “well, they had to bleep out every word he said.”
  •   Oh, alright, not relevant AND dirty. A praying mantis is sitting at a bar and asks the bartender for his third drink. The bartender says, “Charlie, you know that will be your third beer and your wife is waiting?” Charlie says, “oh what does it matter, she’s just going to bite my head off anyway.”

Repo Commentary-07/22/22

Thank you to all of you who wished me a Happy Birthday on July 11th. It was also Tom Sapio’s birthday, my former business partner at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Although my Repo Commentary took some time off since 2/18/2022 (although I wrote most of another one in March 2022), I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry. I have recently completed several projects (below) and am looking to lend my almost 40 years of expertise to firms via consulting or via full-time positions.

  • I designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo, consulting with Pierpoint’s Finance Academy. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo
  • I continue to share my opinion and expertise with the industry through articles in various periodicals.
  • I have been consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.  
  • I have been consulting for 2 years on a new product for the Repo market, Modified Repo, which could solve many industry issues, from liquidity to balance sheet optimization, to even Firesale Risk. 
  • I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums. 

So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, contact me at 

(646-753-1300) mobile

(jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or 

On LinkedIn

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under at work or even remotely. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former employers and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better! 

Holidays or Events (07/22):

  • Hammock Day
  • Lion’s Share Day
  • National Mango Day
  • National Penuche Fudge Day
  • National Ratcatcher’s Day
  • Pi Approximation Day or Casual Pi Day
  • Spoonerism Day
  • Summer Leisure Day
  • National Press Day in Azerbaijan
  • Revolution Day in The Gambia
  • Sarawak Independence Day (Malaysia)

Some Famous People Born on (07/22):

  • 1890-Rose Kennedy, American philanthropist
  • 1928-Orson Bean, American actor
  • 1932-Oscar de la Renta, Dominican-American fashion designer
  • 1938-Terence Stamp, English actor
  • 1940-Alex Trebek, Canadian-American game show host and producer
  • 1941-George Clinton, American singer-songwriter and producer
  • 1943-Bobby Sherman, American singer-songwriter and producer
  • 1944-Rick Davies, English singer-songwriter and keyboard player (The Kinks)
  • 1944-Sparky Lyle, American baseball player and manager
  • 1946-Danny Glover, American actor, director, and producer
  • 1947-Albert Brooks, American actor, comedian, director and screenwriter
  • 1947-Don Henley, American singer-songwriter, drummer (Eagles)
  • 1953-Brian Howe, English singer-songwriter (Bad Company)
  • 1955-Willem Dafoe, American actor
  • 1960-John Leguizamo, Colombian-American actor, producer, screenwriter
  • 1964-David Spade, American actor, producer, screenwriter
  • 1965-Shawn Michaels-American wrestler, trainer, and actor
  • 1966-Tim Brown, American football player and coach
  • 1972-Keyshawn Johnson, American football player and sportscaster
  • 1973-Mike Sweeney, American baseball player, sportscaster
  • 1992-Selena Gomez, American singer and actress
  • 1995-Ezekiel Elliott, American football player

Daily Weird Facts:

In Russia, it’s now illegal to tell kids that gay people exist.

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

“When something is important enough, you do it even if the odds are not in your favor.”—Elon Musk 

Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19 

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

$68.03/barrel on 08/13

$68.06/barrel on 09/09

$90.99/barrel on 02/18/22

$97.28/barrel on 07/22/22

My West Palm Beach gas station is charging $4.19/gallon, up 70 cents in 5 months, but below the national average. OPEC is meeting this week and the Ukrainian War is looming over oil prices. Why, you ask? Because the US Government has yet to open the Keystone XL pipeline, which would have produced 830,000 barrels of oil a day, making us less dependent on the 595,000 barrels of oil a day that we import from Russia.

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates). I did decide to trim this running list to just a few dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

109.59 on 08/13/21

109.92 on 09/10/21

115.15 on 02/18/22

136.03 on 07/21/22

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426 

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

08/13/21 at $1.1797

09/10/21 at $1.1820

02/18/22 at $1.1342

07/21/22 at $1.0236

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655 

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

08/13/21 at $1.3866

09/10/21 at $1.385

02/18/22 at $1.3583

07/21/22 at $1.2017

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

1.2515 on 08/13/21

1.2644 on 09/10/21

1.2737 on 02/18/22

1.2877 on 07/21/22

With data showing continuing price increases and the Fed’s aggressive concern about inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation has become a popular topic again. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce 

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00 

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

08/13/21 $1,781.50

09/09/21 $1,797.20

02/28/22 $1,897.60

07/22/22 $1,728.90

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18 

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19 

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19 

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!

$46,574.40 on 09/09/21

$67,582.60 on 11/08/21 not a Commentary date, but the all-time high

$35,070.10 on 01/22/22 not a Commentary date, but relevant to show its volatility

$40,015.10 on 02/18/22 

$23,143.10 on 07/22/22

On 3/13/20, just post COVID-19 breakout, Bitcoin had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It made almost exactly a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels, wiping out all 2021 gains. All of a sudden, it began climbing higher again in the Fall of 2021, hitting an all-time high of $67,582.10 on 11/08/21. But, volatility wasn’t over and was not for the faint of heart. The SEC signaled it is willing to take a hard line approach towards cryptoasset regulation and what Chair Gary Gensler has called the “Wild West of finance”, by threatening to sue Coinbase over a plan to offer accounts that pay interest on cryptoasset holdings. This has also intensified the debate about the SEC’s jurisdiction over cryptoassets. All of this led to another massive correction of nearly 50% (again), bringing it down to interim low of $35,070.10 on 01/22/22. Now, as I look at the moves since I wrote the last Repo Commentary, it was about $40,015 then and rallied to $47,454 on 03/28/22. Then it started the long road down, cratering at $18,948 on 06/18/22. It is currently struggling to maintain some upward momentum, but it is creating a long period of stable prices, which may lead to a breakout. 

That flight to safety, anti-inflation move into Gold by investors is not being shared by the fiat currency Bitcoin, as some analysts said it could. Tesla earnings met Q2 expectations, so Elon Musk sold 75% of the company’s investment in Bitcoin on Wednesday. Surprisingly, Bitcoin did not go down. Perhaps, because he cited that he was open to buying more and he was selling it only because of China mining shutdowns. But, interestingly, he didn’t sell any of the company’s Dogecoin. Tesla bought about $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in early 2021, probably at prices around $38,000/coin, so he probably sold about $936,000 worth of Bitcoin at about $29,000/coin, according to analysts. Bitcoin closed Wednesday at $23,253/coin.  

The FSB issued a report that estimated that the crypto market capitalization grew 3.5 times in 2021 to a value of $2.6 trillion. The FSB says that the booming crypto assets market could pose a serious threat to financial stability, if regulators fail to take action. The FSB is the global watchdog which monitors financial authorities in 24 countries. “Systemically important banks and other financial institutions are increasingly willing to undertake activities in, and gain exposures to, crypto assets. The prevalence of more complex investment strategies, including through derivatives and other leveraged products that reference crypto assets, also has increased,” according to the FSB. The FSB went on to say, “As in the case of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, as small amount of known exposure does not necessarily mean a small amount of risk, particularly if there exists a lack of transparency and insufficient regulatory coverage.” The report looked at the vulnerabilities of 3 aspects of crypto assets markets: unbacked currencies such as bitcoin; stablecoins such as Tether, which is backed by reserve assets; and decentralized finance (DeFi) and crypto asset trading platforms. FSB showed concern about consumer vulnerability to high credit and operational risk, liquidity mismatch, and reserve runs, as well as apparent high price volatility, the environmental impact of running mining machines, and the potential uses for money laundering, ransomware, and cybercrime. The FBI has established a cryptocurrency unit as part of the Justice Department’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team to evaluate crimes that involve cryptocurrencies and perform its own blockchain analysis. The ex-Coinbase manager has been arrested in a US crypto insider-trading case. 

Global Financial News:

Allied Irish Bank has cancelled a controversial plan to remove cash services from 70 Irish branches.  

US Market News:

At levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is still well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. But, it has retreated since the beginning of 2022, when it set a record high. The steps taken by the White House and the Federal Reserve to boost the economy out of a deep Recession from the pandemic caused a huge spike in inflation (but not much in GDP or Consumer Demand), which the Federal Reserve is now aggressively squashing. Unfortunately, in raising interest rates aggressively, the Fed is actually hurting Consumer Demand and GDP even more, bringing back the specter of Stagflation—a stagnant economy with high interest rates and prices. 

Here are the latest DJIA closes (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates): 

02/17/22  34,312.03

01/04/22   36,799.65 all-time record high close

09/08/21  35,031.07

08/13/21  35,515.38

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53 

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 pre-pandemic high

2/18/22     34,079.18

11/8/21     36,432.22

7/21/22     32,036.90

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58 

12/26/18 at 2,467.70 

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

08/13/21 at 4,468.00

09/09/21 at 4,493.28

01/03/22 at 4,796.56 all-time high

02/17/22 at 4,380.26

07/21/22 at 3,955.47

S&P has drifted from its all-time high at the beginning of the year.

Nasdaq closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high 

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95 

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

08/13/21 at 14,822.90 

09/08/21 at 15,286.64 

12/27/21 at 15,871.26 all-time high

02/17/22 at 13,716.72

07/21/22 at 12,059.61

Nasdaq managed to reach its all-time high before 2021 ended, but has suffered a 20% drop since, as tech has gotten hit hard.

The US Treasury market is focused not only on Inflation, the Fed’s announced tightening policy, and Ukraine and Russia. Two-year yields are now way back to where they were almost exactly two years ago.

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28% 

05/10/20 at 0.16% 

07/24/20 at 0.14% 

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%

09/09/21 at 0.23%

02/17/22 at 1.49% what a dramatic change, as the Fed moved into tightening policy to rein in inflation

07/21/22 at 3.10%

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21

09/09/21 at 0.43%

02/17/22 at 1.70% back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.07%

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38% 

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 0.79%

02/17/22 at 1.85% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 3.00%

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63% 

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24% 

07/14/21 at 1.11%

08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.08%

02/17/22 at 1.94% also back to 2019 levels

07/21/22 at 2.99%

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65% 

12/06/19 at 1.84% 

02/06/20 at 1.65% 

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02% 

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37% 

08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.30%

02/17/22 at 1.97%

07/21/22 at 2.91% 

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21

09/09/21 at 1.90%

02/17/22 at 2.31% 

07/21/22 at 3.08%

Housing News:

The roaring fire in the nation’s housing market, which saw many properties in bidding wars and many buyers unable to find homes, has been largely extinguished. Except for certain areas and certain price points, there has been a screeching halt due to the Fed’s aggressive inflation-fighting monetary tightening. Mortgage rates have nearly doubled from their lows a year or two ago. I have a friend who had a 6 5/8% 30-year mortgage and refinanced in May 2020, when the Fed Funds target rate was 0-0.25% for new 30-year mortgage at 3 3/8%. That same 30-year mortgage is now going for 6.67%, almost exactly what it was when she refinanced. The Fed is expected to raise its target Fed Funds rate another full 1% next Wednesday, which will make mortgages even further out of reach for the average home buyers. It hasn’t helped that home sellers are sitting on the high prices of months ago and not really budging. Top that off, builders are worried about getting stuck with expensive materials and their confidence has dropped and so has available supply. What do all those countering ebbs and flows mean? It means that Mortgage Applications are down 21% and supply and demand for home purchases has suddenly shrunk. Looking at Florida real estate, the brokers are telling me that June statistics show that Miami real estate is still on fire! They point to year/year median sales price +18.4% for single family homes, and +19.9% for townhouses and condos. However, they are overlooking that Closed Sales year/year are -20.1% and -25% respectively. Also, Months Supply of Inventory are +35.7% in single family homes. In Palm Beach County, Closed Sales are -30.5% for single family homes and -34.6% for townhouses/condos. 

Repo/Securities Financing News:                              

My friend, Rob Goobie, at HOOPP, announced on LinkedIn that the Global Peer Financing Association (GPFA) has added BMO, taking the GPFA to membership with assets over $10 trillion! Awesome job by Rob and GPFA!  As you know, P2P Financing was near and dear to me since 2008 and i’m very happy to see it taking off now and becoming an industry-led official organization to help global members. I just noticed that the upcoming 10/12-10/14 89th Annual Market Structure Conference in Washington, DC, put on by STA (Security Traders Association), is going to feature “Fireside Interviews” as panel presentations. This was an idea I pushed to our industry organizations to include in our conferences years ago. It’s a fireside chat, making the audience feel like they are privileged to be listening in on a private conversation, with a moderator who acts more like a newscaster interviewing people. Apparently, a few of my ideas were ahead of their time.

I mentioned at the top that I’ve been currently consulting on a new product for the Securities Financing market, Modified Repo. It could solve a lot of liquidity issues for broker/dealers, CCPs, seclending agents, mREITs, pension funds, municipalities, money funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, corporate credit unions, ETFs, hedge funds, asset managers, and other sectors.  If you get a chance, ask me about it.

Upcoming Securities Financing Conferences:

IMN-25th Beneficial Owners’ European Securities Finance & Collateral Management Conference, London, 9/13/22. In person.

RMA-Securities Finance and Collateral Management Conference, Key Biscayne, FL, 10/10-10/13/22 in person. I will be there and looking forward to seeing you all!

Securities Trading Association (STA)-89th annual Market Structure Conference, Washington, DC, 10/12-10/14/22 hybrid, in person and streamed.

Finadium-Rates & Repo Conference 2022, 11/02/22, NYC hybrid, streamed and in-person reception the following week.

Federal Reserve News:

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 1.50-1.75% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). When I last wrote, the target rate was still 0.00%-0.25%. But, then the Fed embarked on an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to combat rampant inflation. The last inflation reading was a historic 9.1%. But, simultaneously, GDP showed two negative consecutive quarters, the definition of a Recession. What is a Federal Reserve to do?  Actually, the Fed has 2 main missions: Keep inflation in check (around 2%) and keep the unemployment rate at a low equilibrium level. It is not charged with keeping stocks from collapsing, supporting GDP, or other economic tasks, in its mission. The Fed is widely expected to raise the target Fed Funds rate again, this time by 1% (100bp), when it meets next week on 7/27/22.

The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks.  

The next FOMC meetings are:  07/27/22, 09/21/22, 11/02/22, and 12/14/22. All of the scheduled meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we are in. At the last FOMC meeting on 01/26/22, the accompanying statement focused on the Fed’s longer-run goals, tightening monetary policy as a strategy to rein in inflation, and the principles for reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. It decided to leave the interest rate paid on Reserve balances at 0.15%, maintained the Fed Funds rate target in a range of 0.00-0.25% (unchanged), complete the increase of SOMA holdings of US Treasuries by $40 billion and Agency MBS by $20 billion per its monthly purchase plan, but reduce that in February to $20 billion and $10 billion respectively, while leaving it the option to buy Treasuries and Agency MBS as it sees fit to sustain smooth functioning of those outright markets. It also agreed to continue to reinvest all principal payments from US Treasuries and interest payments from Agency Debt and Agency MBS into Agency MBS purchases. It also said it would continue to engage in Dollar Roll and Coupon Swap transactions as necessary to facilitate the settlement of the Fed’s Agency MBS transactions. It also said it would conduct O/N Repos with a minimum Bid rate of 0.25% and with a limit of $500 billion (which can be increased temporarily if necessary at the discretion of the Fed Chairman), conduct O/N Reverse Repo operations at an Offering rate of 0.05% and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day (a limit which can also be increased temporarily if necessary at the discretion of the Fed Chairman), 

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight. Note that the Fed has the nomenclature backwards, it is actually Repoing securities out of the Reverse Repo Program and taking cash IN from its perspective. As if Repo nomenclature, bid and offer, and acronyms weren’t hard enough for everybody. 

The FOMC in July 2021 issued an additional statement regarding “Repurchase Agreement Arrangements”. It announced the establishment of a domestic Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). Both facilities are intended to be backstops to the money market. The SRF will have daily O/N repo operations against US Treasuries, Agency Debentures, and Agency MBS pools, with a maximum total size of $500 billion. The minimum bid rate for repos under the facility will be the top end of the Fed Funds range, currently 0.25%, which is currently ABOVE the general level of O/N Repo Rates.  Again, let’s make sure we understand the backward nomenclature. Although the Fed is referring to this facility as Repo, they are actually taking IN Collateral and putting OUT cash (which you and I know is the definition of a Reverse Repo from our or the Fed’s perspective). The initial counterparties will be their 22 Primary Dealers, which we knew, and be expanded to other ‘depository institutions.’ The FIMA repo facility will actually operate a little easier, as the Fed will enter into O/N reverse repos as needed with foreign official institutions against their holding of US Treasuries already maintained in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, mostly in the SOMA accounts. That rate will also be 0.25% now and the per counterparty limit will be $60 billion. This facility could be key for these institutions to receive US dollar funding, when propping up their own currencies, rather than selling their US Treasuries outright. 

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. Will update next issue.

Weather:

Heat waves across the United States have set record highs and affected over 140 million people. They have also severely tested that power grid in Texas, which is made up of many parts that are 50-years-old. Unprecedented, record-breaking heat waves across Europe, sending temperatures soaring into triple digits, have left more than 4,200 people dead. 

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  On 12/09/21, CSU issued an extended forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. La Nina pattern should keep the area active, after two consecutive years of higher-than-average named storms. La Nina has the opposite effect from El Nino, which is when Pacific waters are warmed and there tends to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. 2021 was the third most active hurricane season on record for named storms with 21 named storms and 7 hurricanes. 2020 had 30 named storms and 2005 had 28 named storms.

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. 

Sports News:       

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

In the 2021 pandemic-impacted season, in the World Series, the Atlanta Braves shocked the sports world by beating the favored Houston Astros 4 games to 2. 

The 2022 season just hit its midpoint and held the All-Star Game, which the American League won 3-2. It was the least watched MLB All-Star Game ever.  Maybe because of the contract negotiation nonsense. Julio Rodriguez, of the Mariners, won the Homerun Derby. He beat Juan Soto of the Nationals, just after news broke that the Nats are considering trading Soto. There was even some more Soto-dissing, as his flight landed at 1:30am before the Home Run Derby, after the Nationals refused to charter a flight, after he turned down another contract offer.  

MLB and MLBPA finally agreed on a new CBA and played a shortened 15-game (instead of 30-game) Spring Training, before starting the regular season a little late. Unfortunately, I lost several opportunities to sing the National Anthem, with less games. I sang one game for the Nationals and Astros. And, I just sang “God Bless America” for a minor league game on July 4th, just before the fireworks.  This weekend, Cooperstown will induct the Class of 2022, including David Ortiz.  

While the Repo Commentary was away, the Mets hired Elizabeth Benn as director of Major League operations. Derek Jeter was out as the Marlins CEO, citing different “vision for the future of the franchise.” In the modern baseball era, 154 position players (non-pitchers) finished their professional careers with just one plate appearance in the Major Leagues. Of those, only 16 managed to get a hit in that at-bat. Joan Joyce, arguably the greatest softball player ever, once conquered baseball legends Hank Aaron and Ted Williams. She also competed on the LPGA Tour for 19 years. She is also in the Connecticut Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame, a Volleyball coach who took her team the National Tournament 4 times, a professional bowler, a runner-up in ABC’s Superstars tennis competition, and has more than 900 wins as a coach at FAU, here in Boca Raton, FL. But, in professional softball, as a pitcher, she was 753-42, with a .09 ERA over 20 seasons, 150 no-hitters, and 50 perfect games, while hitting .400. It was estimated that she threw the softball 119 mph. She struck out Aaron in an exhibition game. Then she was supposed to pitch to my favorite player, Carl Yastrzemski, a few years later, but Yaz was too scared to face Joyce’s dreaded rise-ball, and told them no. In 1966, she faced Ted Williams for a Jimmy Fund fundraiser. She threw to him for about 10 minutes and he couldn’t make contact. Williams paid her the most supreme compliment, saying she was the greatest pitcher he’d ever faced. 

The Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi and the Angels fired Joe Maddon. The Toronto Blue Jays fired their manager, Charlie Montoya, right before the All Star Game. They are still in contention for the AL Wild Card, so the timing is a little odd. But, everything is a little odd in the AL this year, as the Yankees have won nearly 75% of their games, way ahead of any other team in baseball. They are on pace for 113 wins, and a chance to catch the all-time record of 116 wins, set by the Mariners in 2001. My Red Sox are struggling way behind the Yankees, but in contention for the AL Wild Card spots. There have been other interesting baseball storylines, including speeding up the game with pitch clocks to 30 seconds (more changes being tried in minor leagues as well).  While the ALCS and NLCS seem like they are eternally populated by the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, and Braves, the Phillies, Orioles, and Mariners are showing some signs of life this year and may eventually upset the apple cart. The Phillies, after landing star Bryce Harper for the price of the rest of the team, have vaulted into domination, while the Nationals on the losing end of that free agency move, have fallen to obscurity. Nats Juan Soto is only 23, so there is going to be great demand for the slugger. Trading him would be a blockbuster move, similar to trades of Manny Machado, Mookie Betts, and Miguel Cabrera. The Mets and Red Sox have been talking about a trade for the Mets first baseman, Dominic Smith. There are also rumors that the Red Sox are also involved in the talks for Juan Soto. Yankees slugger Aaron Judge is a free agent at the end of this season. In fact, Jacob deGrom, Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Nolan Arenado, and Dansby Swanson could be free agents. Here’s a thought, the best player in baseball for the last 10 years, Mike Trout, is still on the hapless Angels. Now, the new phenom, MVP Shohei Ohtani, who is thrilling us at the plate and on the mound, is due to be a free agent in 18 months. Is he going to put up with the Angels mediocrity, like Trout? The trade deadline is 08/02/22. 

After the creation of a new Competition Committee, commissioner Rob Manfred can finally implement new rules more quickly than in the past, and the indications are that MLB will have big changes prior to 2023. Two of those changes will be the pitch clock (currently being used in the Minor Leagues) and limits on the Infield Shift by fielders. 

Golf:

The PGA Tour 2020-2021 season was an expanded one, due to COVID-19 related cancellations and postponements, mostly in 2020. Although most touring pros play between 20 and 30 tournaments in the season, the actual season was comprised of an expanded 50 official PGA events. 

The 2022 season kicked off in Hawaii and has been exciting. World No.1 ranked Jon Rahm was voted the European Tour’s Player of the Year. The 2022 Majors have been played and were exciting. Ironically, the two best players in the 4 Majors, Rory McIlroy and Will Zalatoris (-29 and -21 performances), didn’t win any of them.  The Open (British Open) was played last weekend and the winner was Cameron Smith, who snatched the tournament from Rory McIlroy at the end. The US Open was won by Matthew Fitzpatrick. The PGA Championship was won by Justin Thomas. The Masters was won by Scottie Sheffler. Now, the PGA makes its way back to the US for this week’s 3M Open. Currently, the Official World Golf Rankings show Scottie Sheffler at No.1, Cameron Smith at No.2, and Rory McIlroy at No.3.

Dominating golf news this season though, a breakaway Saudi-backed Super Golf League is threatening the PGA Tour.  It has begun its abbreviated, 10 tournament season. Next week will be the 3rd tournament. It is fronted by Greg Norman. Several PGA players have come out against it, including Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Brooks Koepka. Reportedly, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Scott, and Phil Mickelson have taken large offers from the new league. Brooks Koepka also did a 180 and joined LIV. There is a rumor that Bryson is being paid as much as $135 million. Norman announced in January that the Saudi-funded golf tournaments would be played in Great Britain and the Middle East as part of a new 10-event series on the Asian Tour. Norman intends to hold tournaments in the future also on US soil. Now, the NY Post reports that Charles Barkley will be play in an LIV Golf pro-am, as Greg Norman is preparing a broadcasting offer for him. Henrik Stinson has just joined the LIV Tour and being criticized by Padraig Harrington, who says he has “no empathy” for Henrik, and is on the committee that will decide the next captain of the European Ryder Cup team. The committee stripped Stinson of his captaincy for the Ryder Cup team, saying he signed a contract.

The upcoming golf tournament schedule has the PGA at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, FL, starting Thursday 3/3, and for the PGA Tour players who weren’t invited to that, there is the alternate tournament, the Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve Golf Club in Rio Grande, Puerto Rico, also starting on Thursday 3/3. Next week, the PGA Tour has the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, FL, considered by many as the 5th Major. Remember that this year the Masters Tournament returns to its normal April slot, not the Fall slot it took because of the pandemic. The European Tour started the Kenya Open on 3/2 at Muthaiga GC.  The LPGA is playing the HSBC Women’s Champion, starting 3/2, at Sentosa Golf Club-Tanjong Course.

NFL:

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. It was the first time that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

The 2021 NFL season ended with a dramatic playoff schedule of many close and Overtime games. In the end, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals (who were the worst team in the NFL only 2 years ago), 23-20. The Rams did not cover the 4 point spread. Rams WR Cooper Kupp was named the MVP of the Super Bowl and the game was played coincidentally in the Rams’ brand new home stadium, which cost $5.2 billion to build. It was only the second time (and in a row) that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

There were 7 Head Coach changes for 2022, including the helm of Vikings, Bears, Giants, Broncos, Jaguars, Raiders, and Dolphins. 

QB Kyler Murray, on Thursday, reportedly agreed to a 5year/$230.5 million extension with the Cardinals. The Browns, perennially involved in the top pick of the Draft and an insatiable appetite for new QBs in the last 7 years, have decided that they do want another QB, but it won’t likely be Jimmy Garapolo. They paid up for QB Deshaun Watson as their No.1 QB, despite the likelihood that he will be suspended for sexual abuse charges for at least part of 2022 season by the NFL. No.2 QB Jacoby Brissett will step up to No.1 for now. They have A.J. McCarron and Josh Rosen working out now for the No.2 position. That would make Joshua Dobbs the No.3, until Watson comes off suspension. Since the 2018 Draft, Josh Rosen has been QB for the Falcons, the Cardinals, the Dolphins, the Bucs, and the 49ers. Reportedly, the Browns are still looking at QB Cam Newton! What is it with their fascination for collecting QBs??? Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has reported to training camp on Thursday, amidst contract questions. The Cowboys’ classic helmets will return for Thanksgiving Day game. The Bills are hoping to make the Super Bowl with QB Josh Allen, or there will be personnel changes. There are rumors, started by his girlfriend, that TE Rob Gronkowski will come out of retirement (again) to play football this season. I hope he knows that the Bucs just signed TE Kyle Rudolph, likely Gronk’s replacement. 

NCAA Football

Texas A&M star WR Ainias Smith was arrested on DWI, weapon, and marijuana charges. On the heels of winning the National Championship over Alabama, Georgia rewarded coach Kirby Smart with a massive new contract through 2031. 

NHL:

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic. In the end, The Tampa Bay Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions, beating the Montreal Canadiens 4-1. 

The 2021-2022 season began on 10/20/21. It ended with a spectacular playoff schedule. The Tampa Bay Lightning tried to 3-peat as Stanley Cup Champions, but ultimately lost to the Colorado Avalanche. 

NHL is now in free agency time, and my Boston Bruins, who did okay in last season’s playoffs, are rumored to be interested in Flames star Matthew Tkachuk. Niederreiter got a 2year deal with the Predators. Kapanen has signed with the Penguins. The Bruins have yet to re-sign their 36-year-old Captain, Bergeron. Other free agents available still are: Kadri, Kessel, Stastny, Klingberg, Subban, Yandle, and Holtby.

NBA:

The 2020-2021 NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The 2021-2022 NBA season had a normal 82-game schedule and the Finals were won by the Warriors over my Boston Celtics in an exciting series. The Summer League has just completed, sort of their developmental league and spring training. Kings’ Keegan Murray has been named MVP of Summer League. The Summer League title went to the Portland Blazers. 

Wednesday night, ESPN held the ESPY Awards, hosted by Steph Curry. He roasted LeBron James, the Celtics, and many more. The Sixers announced plans to build a new $1.3 billion arena. Harden has agreed to a 2year deal with the 76ers. The Suns re-signed Ayton. Bucks signed Connaughton to an extension. The Cavaliers have unveiled 3 new uniforms for upcoming season. 

Auto Racing:

The NASCAR Cup Series of 2022 has begun. Here is the 2022 schedule and winners:

02/06/22 Busch Clash at LA Memorial Coliseum-Joey Logano

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona

02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona

02/20/22 DAYTONA 500

02/27/22 Wise Power 400 Fontana,CA

03/06/22 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas

03/13/22 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix

03/20/22 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta

03/27/22 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Austin

04/03/22 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway

04/09/22 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville

04/17/22 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol

04/24/22 GEICO 500 at Talladega

05/01/22 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover

05/08/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington

05/15/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Open at Texas 

05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas

05/29/22 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway

06/05/22 NASCAR Cup Series at WWTR in Illinois

06/12/22 Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway

06/26/22 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

07/03/22 Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY at Road America

07/10/22 Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart at Atlanta

07/17/22 Ambettor 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

07/24/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway

07/31/22 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Indianapolis

08/07/22 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

08/14/22 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond

08/21/22 Go Bowling at The Glen, Watkins Glen

08/27/22 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona

09/04/22 PLAYOFFS round of 16: Southern 500 at Darlington

09/11/22 PLAYOFFS: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

09/17/22 PLAYOFFS: Bass Pros Shops Night Race at Bristol

09/25/22 PLAYOFFS round of 12: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas

10/02/22 PLAYOFFS: YellaWood 500 at Talladega

10/09/22 PLAYOFFS: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte

10/16/22 PLAYOFFS round of 8: South Point 400 at Las Vegas

10/23/22 PLAYOFFS: Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami

10/30/22 PLAYOFFS: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville

11/06/22 PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIP at Phoenix 

Formula One integrity is hanging in the balance after failure to publish an Abu Dhabi report.  There was a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. F1 has announced another 23-race F1 calendar for 2022. Here is the 2022 schedule and here are the winners:

03/20/22-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix

03/27/22-Saudi Arabia

04/10/22-Australia Heineken

04/24/22-Italy Rolex Gran Premio Dell-Emilia Romagna

05/08/22-United States Crypto.com Miami 

05/22/22-Spain Pirelli Gran Premio de Espana

05/29/22-Monaco

06/12/22-Azerbaijan

06/19/22-Canada

07/03/22-Great Britain

07/10/22-Austria Grosser Preis Von Osterreich

07/24/22-France

07/31/22-Hungary Magyar Nagydij

08/28/22-Belgium Rolex 

09/04/22-Netherlands Heineken Dutch

09/11/22-Italy Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia

09/25/22-Russia VTB

10/02/22-Singapore

10/09/22-Japan

10/23/22-United States Aramco

10/30/22-Mexico

11/13/22-Brazil Heineken

11/30/22-Abu Dhabi Etihad Airways

IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  The 2022 schedule and the winners:

02/27/22 St. Petersburg

03/20/22 Texas

04/10/22 Long Beach

05/01/22 Barber

05/14/22 Indy Road Course

05/29/22 Indy 500

06/05/22 Detroit

06/12/22 Elkhart Lake

07/03/22 Mid-Ohio

07/17/22 Toronto

07/23/22 Iowa

07/24/22 iowa

07/30/22 Indy Road Course

08/07/22 Nashville

08/20/22 St. Louis

09/04/22 Portland

09/22/22 Laguna Seca

Travel News:

Ecosystems around lakes all over the world are changing and it may cause those lakes to look very different sooner than later. On a similar topic, lovers of Lake Tahoe take an aggressive approach year-round to “Keep Tahoe Blue”, with people regularly diving in the lake to the bottom to clean up any garbage in the lake that straddles the Nevada and California border. Saudi Arabia has turned an oil rig into a resort for thrill-seekers, renovating an old rig with 800 hotel rooms, 11 restaurants, water slides, a wave pool, roller coasters, ziplines, bungee-jumping, go-karts, submersibles, and even a Ferris wheel. Naturally, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has named it “The Rig”. Investigators believe a massive 1,200-foot Panamanian cargo ship ruptured the California oil pipeline with its anchor, dragging the pipeline and releasing thousands of gallons of crude oil into the ocean off of California. Delta and Peloton are teaming up to offer stretching classes in the air. Supposedly, it won’t impact the passenger next to you on already tight-seating flights. The new classes will be available, complete with instructors, for “all Delta Air Lines flights equipped with seatback entertainment globally.” The classes will focus on stretching and mid-flight meditation. I’m still skeptical of the impact in such close quarters, but it’s a brilliant branding move by Peloton.  A rogue 58-foot wave off the coast of Canada’s Vancouver Island in 2020 took everyone by surprise. It was a record wave, not because of its height, but because of the disparity between it and all the waves around it. Researchers believe such a wave is so rare that is likely happens only once every 1,300 years. I’ve been extolling the virtues of the new high-speed train service here in Florida, Brightline, which was then purchased by Virgin Atlantic. They have beautiful trains with white upholstery and flight attendant service of snacks and drinks and gorgeous terminals (better than airport terminals) at West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Miami cruise ship nexus. Well, it started out great less than 4 years ago, cutting the commute time from West Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale to 30min at 88mph (from what would have been a horrendous drive on deadly I95 for as much as an hour) and to Miami in one hour (a drive on the same deadliest stretch of highway in the US on I95 that could take as much as 2 ½ hours)! I’ve taken it several times. Then, COVID-19 hit and the service had to be shut down for 17 months. It reopened a short while ago and I hopped on to go to and from Miami. Well, unfortunately, on the way back the train hit somebody committing suicide, so the 135 or so of us found ourselves as part of some unfortunate man’s suicide, and also found ourselves with a 4-hour delay. Unfortunately, because the train travels at 88mph and runs on the same heavy track that the freight trains run on at about 20mph, many people and cars think they can get across below the gates without getting hit. But, also many people have found it a convenient way to commit suicide. In the short time that it has been operating, 50 people have already committed suicide on this stretch of track. It’s very hard to stop, as people could cross the track at any point, unless they put up many cameras so they can stop the train or they fence in all of their land. However, at the crossings, the fencing probably wouldn’t work. I don’t know the solution, but it is a big problem. Ironically, probably for the copycat attention, another man committed suicide in West Palm Beach the next day, stepping in front of a freight train on the same track. And, just two days ago a car tried to run the gate in Delray Beach on the same track and was demolished, killing one and injuring another. In other Brightline news, they just received a shipment of a train from California that can run at about 110mph, just as they are completing track extension to Orlando, to be followed by another track extension to Tampa. Meanwhile, a station for Boca Raton has been approved. Stay tuned for more updates! 

Health News:  

As of today (02/22), globally, over 6.38 million people have died from COVID-19. More than 567,000,000 people have been confirmed infected with COVID-19. The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world. The COVID-19 pandemic, one of the deadliest in history, triggered severe social and economic disruption around the world, including the largest global recession since the Great Depression. Widespread supply shortages, including food shortages, were caused by supply chain disruption. The resultant near-global lockdowns created and unprecedented reduction in pollution. Educational institutions, public areas, and entertainment venues were partially or fully closed, as were businesses and restaurants, and many events were cancelled or postponed. Misinformation circulated through social media and mass media, and political tensions dramatically increased. The pandemic raised issues of racial and geographic discrimination, health equity, and the balance between public health goals and individual rights. Resultant business restrictions and remote working permanently restructured the economy, leading to workers leaving jobs and changing careers, and businesses severely reduced or permanently shuttered. The impact of the lack of skilled workers now in certain industries and at certain levels of workforce hierarchy is still being felt today, expressed in the airline industry’s cancellations of flights, restaurants restricted hours or tables, commercial real estate vacancy increases, etc. due to lack of workers. 

Despite being extremely careful throughout the pandemic, having both Pfizer shots and the subsequent two booster shots, I finally tested positive on 12/29/21, unfortunately the day I was to fly to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta to see Michigan State beat Pittsburgh. I stayed home, so I wouldn’t infect anyone else, particularly those with weaker immune systems than I have. I had only a little fogginess, congestion, and a cough for a few days. Unfortunately, I kept testing positive for 16 days, so I kept quarantining! On Thursday, President Biden tested positive for COVID-19, raising health concerns for the 79-year-old President. His symptoms are reportedly very mild. 

We all have that one friend (or more) that gets on the topic of sleeplessness (particularly in our very stressful industry) and then extols the virtues of Melatonin. Yeah, you know the friend!  Anyway, GoodRX tells members that melatonin is used to help control your sleep-wake cycle and there is no good evidence that taking too much of the supplement can lead to an overdose.  However, high doses can cause side effects like these:  serious complications in adults who take high doses of melatonin combined with other sedating medications or substances, like alcohol; headache; nausea; drowsiness; irritability; and dizziness.  If you are feeling side effects of taking too much melatonin and are drowsy, you CAN got to sleep, but you should have an adult with you, until you are fully awake and rested. That adult staying with you should try to wake you up every 30 minutes while you are sleeping. And, if your breathing becomes irregular or if you are unable to wake up, 911 should be called or you should be taken to the nearest Emergency room. Amazon announced that it would buy primary-care company One Medical for $3.49 billion. It will add this part of healthcare to its recently acquired mail-order pharmacy PillPack. 

Animal News:

Archaeologists have discovered the remains of a giant sea scorpion that date back about 435 million years ago.  The scorpion, found in China, measured a meter in length and had long barbed limbs. Researchers have discovered that Iron Age miners had dietary staples of cheese and beer in Europe. Researchers examined preserved fecal matter dating back 2,700 years from salt mines in Austria and found evidence of two species of fungi often used to ferment cheese and beer. Interestingly, miners from the 18th and 19th century had the same taste for cheese and beer. Last month, the first aardvark was born in the 90-year history of the Chester Zoo in England.  Aardvarks are native to sub-Saharan Africa and there are only 109 in zoos worldwide. 

A rise in reported shark attacks has beachgoers and officials concerned up and down the East Coast from Massachusetts to Florida, and the California coast. On Wednesday, a 16-year-old surfer was bitten by a shark on Long Island, becoming the 6th Long Island beachgoer to be attacked by a shark this summer.  He was bitten about 60 feet offshore at Kismet Beach on Fire Island, and suffered a 4-inch gash on his foot. Beachgoers are now seeing red flags on Long Island beaches, closed Boston beaches, and shark patrols in Miami. Here in Florida, this past weekend, friends of mine went to the Lake Worth beach and pier, just 5 minutes from here and saw a 9-foot tiger shark prowling in very shallow water, which led to the entire beach being closed for the day. Last weekend, a 40-year-old woman was bitten on the leg, presumably by a shark, while wading in Daytona Beach Shores. On Tuesday, all Rockaway beaches in NYC were closed following multiple shark sightings, according to police. In California, a 62-year-old swimmer suffered major injuries to his stomach, arm and leg in an great white shark attack last month. Now, the reality versus the media hoopla: last year, only one person in the US died from an unprovoked shark attack, a man who was boogie-boarding in California’s Morro Bay on Christmas Eve. Researchers with the International Shark Attack File DID record 73 unprovoked attacks last year, an uptick from the decade-low 52 bites in 2020, but closer to the 5-year global average of 72 annually. According to the Shark Attack File, 1 in 79,746 people will be struck by lightning and die, much higher than the risk of dying from a shark attack, which is 1 in more than 3.7 million. Okay, let’s hear from the Defenders of Wildlife, who point out that bees kill more people every year (53), as do cows (52). So, if you go on vacation, you needn’t worry as much about sharks, as you should about getting to and from your vacation, since according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration estimates, in 2021, nearly 43,000 people died in the US from motor vehicle crashes. That’s the deadliest year since 2005 for vehicle deaths. In 2020, the fatality rate for motor vehicle crashes in the US was 11.7 per 100,000 people, way higher than shark attacks or deaths. According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, that fatality rate was 4.9 per 100,000 in Massachusetts (being from Massachusetts, I am quite dubious of that number), to as high as 25.4 per 100,000 in Mississippi. In a person’s life, the risk of dying from an auto accident is 1 in 84, per Shark Attack File. Currently, people have a 1 in 5 chance of dying of heart disease and a 1 in 7 chance of dying of cancer, according to the same organization. So, are we off the sharks now? Did you know that some 4,000 people in the US die of drowning every year, according to the CDC. And, an additional 8,000 people end up in the ER. 

Okay, I think I dug up enough information about death and death rates to even make me squeamish. Let’s look at the why so many shark attacks. A study published last October showed that juvenile great white sharks, for example, cannot significantly tell the difference between humans swimming, humans paddling surfboards, and prey like sea lions and seals, especially when they are at the stage of learning what constitutes food. I personally believe that there is something different about the bites sharks are making this year. It seems to be less foot and hand bites and tasting and leaving alone. Some of these bites, like the torso bite in California, and the horrific leg bite on the girl scalloper early this month near Tallahassee, FL, seem to be from a shark who has decided that those humans were prey. But, what do I know, as a Repo veteran. Although you should see Repo market participants in a frenzy over 1bp! 

Entertainment News:

I finished the 11-year program Criminal Minds on Netflix. I got caught up in another FBI series, Quantico, but after several seasons, I grew tired of the plots. I think they may have ‘jumped the shark’ a few times, and my interest fizzled. I also watched the second 7 episodes of the 3rd season of Ozark.  I am disappointed that it’s over now. Of course, being as STAR WARS nerd, after watching The Book of Boba Fett on Disney+, I voraciously watched the next series Obi Wan Kenobi. The scenes and lightsaber fighting were amazing. And while they explained some holes in the original STAR WARS story, they also added some things that deviated from the story that I didn’t care for. For instance, there is another lightsaber duel between Darth Vader and Obi Wan Kenobi, not dissimilar to the one between the two that morphed Anakin Skywalker into Darth Vader. I’ve been catching up on my movies of 2021 and 2022. I went to the movies finally, to see TOPGUN: MAVERICK, MISSION IMPOSSIBLE and ELVIS. Of course, they were amazing, especially in couch theaters with iMax. The rest of the movies I watched were streamed on various TV channels.  Let me resurrect this feature I used to have in the Repo Commentary for movie-goers, my ratings of current movies that I have seen (some streamed, some on airplanes, and two in the theater):

2021 Movies

NO TIME TO DIE                                8.0

NOBODY                                              7.5

WRATH OF MAN                               7.0

STILLWATER                                     7.0

THE MATRIX RESURRECTIONS   7.0

THE CARD COUNTER                      6.5

THE UNFORGIVABLE                      6.0

HOUSE OF GUCCI                            5.0

GHOSTBUSTERS: AFTERLIFE     4.0

2022 Movies

TOPGUN: MAVERICK                      8.8

ELVIS                                                    8.5

WATCHER                                           6.5

While the Repo Commentary was away actor Zachary Horwitz admitted fabricating HBO and Netflix film deals in a $650-million Ponzi scheme that prosecutors say is the largest in Hollywood history. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. Nick Clegg has been promoted to the top job at Facebook. Prince Andrew remains in the news regarding accusations of a tie-in with Jeffrey Epstein’s trouble. Jess Phillips says the idea of Prince Andrew supporting such human trafficking is “ridiculous”. Lisa Barlow stormed off the set during the Season 2 reunion of Real Housewives of Salt Lake City. Not long after, that show was not renewed by Bravo!  Chris and Deanna Daughtry sent a message to supporters, 3 months after their daughter’s death. Kanye “Ye” West filed an official response after Kim Kardashian requests to be legally single. Prince Harry said he “doesn’t feel safe” bringing his and Meghan Markle’s kids to the UK. John Mayer refers to himself as “America’s Ex-Boyfriend.” Brad Pitt has sued ex Angelina Jolie over their joint winery. If you ever wished you could live at Disneyland (and I’m sure many kids have), now you basically can.  Alex Baldwin and others have been named in the wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of Halyna Hutchins. Coachella and Stagecoach festivals dropped their vaccination requirements. 

You may notice that since 02/18/22, I have actually tried to write a Repo Commentary several times, so there is some catch-up news in the Repo Commentary. Hopefully, we will get all regular and caught up, and I won’t need to do that. This headline just came across Thursday night as I type this, ELVIS actress Shonka Dukureh was found dead at 44. I just saw that movie when it came out (of course)! Kendall Jenner was granted a restraining order against an alleged trespasser. Ricky Martin is addressing his nephew’s “painful and devastating” allegations. Those allegations were just withdrawn in court. Chelsea Handler is tearing up over “painful” breakup with Jo Koy. And I thought I was done writing about this family, Honey Boo-Boo is about to undergo weight loss procedure. There are rumors that Hugh Grant will portray Prince Andrew in film about Jeffrey Epstein. This past weekend, Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck got married in Las Vegas and took a romantic trip to Paris. A friend of mine and not Ben Affleck reflected that JLo only needs 2 more rings to tie Tom Brady’s collection!!! Hysterical! Yes, I counted out her engagements and marriages, and it works. Bruce Springsteen fans are experiencing sticker shock at the high cost of tickets for his 2023 US arena tour. Valerie Bertinelli has requested a separate trial to validate her prenup in divorce from Tom Vitale. 

Technology & Space News:

Italian astronaut Samantha Cristoforetti has become the first European woman to reach the International Space Station. NASA released the first operational image taken by the James Webb Space Telescope.  Elon Musk, who is worth about $185 billion, making him the 2nd richest man in the world, surprisingly has chosen to live in a $50,000 small house. Of course, why should we be surprised by enigmatic Musk, who attached one of his Tesla roadsters to a SpaceX rocket and sent it into space, named his child “X AE A-12”, recently speculated that humans are all living in a simulation.  His house is actually worth less than one of his cars. Model 3 with options is over $50,000, Model S starts at $86,190, Model X SUV starts at $96,190 and goes up to $121,190 with options. The Roadster starts near $200,000. In May 2020, Musk announced that he would be selling all of his “physical possessions”, and according to Vanity Fair, he did just that, selling his 9309-square-foot mansion for $29.72 million and a second home for $6.77 million and a third home for $4.43 million. His current studio ‘home’ is only 375-square-feet!  The compact box-like home is from company Boxabl and Musk had it towed by a Tesla X to Boca Chica, TX, where the SpaceX headquarters are located. I know, you want to see what his house looks like now, well of course I have a picture (actually two!):

Casita Unit that Elon Musk lives in
Casita floor plan

US News:

The Secret Service erased, supposedly in a computer purge planned months in advance, January 6 text messages that could have helped verify or rebut some of the most stunning testimony about President Trump’s actions during the January 6 insurrection at the Capitol in Washington, DC. There are allegations that the Secret Service deleted the text messages AFTER the House requested them. The Camp Lejeune Justice Act of 2022 finds that the military base was found to be contaminated by a number of chemicals known as volatile organic compounds, particularly contaminating the water. After the Supreme Court recently overturned the Roe vs Wade ruling regarding abortion, shocking the country, the Justices decided to turn their attention to same-sex marriage. Mitt Romney is dismissing Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ opinion to reconsider the same-sex marriage ruling. Romney and others in Congress are now trying to fast track a bill that would make same-sex marriage legal by law, rather than just by ruling. In Michigan, a woman sued a man for $10,000 after a bad date, but the lawsuit was dismissed when she snapped at the district court judge. So, with interest rates skyrocketing to combat price increases which were skyrocketing, squashing some of the Housing Market, new data today shows that US Unemployment Claims rose for a 3rd week, to the highest level since November. More companies are announcing job cuts, suggesting softening in the labor market, likely due to falling GDP and Consumer Demand. 

International News:

The top international story is still the war in The Ukraine, as Russia finally did something with all of its military forces bunched up on the Ukrainian border, and began a coordinated assault on its former Soviet Union republic. It is the first warfare on European soil since WWII (1940s). It has also caused Europe’s largest refugee crisis since WWII. Russia invaded Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War that began in 2014. Russia has been attacking with tanks, armored personnel carriers, ships, LCVs, drones, rockets, soldiers, even alleged illegal cluster bombs. Russia has also put its nuclear armament on high alert, a threat of nuclear war if necessary. The UN General Assembly passed a resolution condemning the invasion and demanding a full withdrawal of Russian forces. The International Court of Justice ordered Russia to suspend military operations and the Council of Europe expelled Russia. The International Criminal Court has opened an investigation into crimes against humanity in Ukraine since 2013, as well as war crimes in the 2022 invasion. Many countries have imposed sanctions on Russia, which have had an impact on the Russian economy, Russian bonds and currency, and the world. Many countries have also supplied humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. In a recent move, President Putin has begun maneuvering to Annex Ukraine, making it part of Russia, which he feels would make any country supplying military aid to Ukraine, also to be attacking mother Russia. He would then view this as an Act of War against Russia. Russia may be facing a second war front, as Chechens threaten a new offensive against Russia.  The Chechens are opposed to Putin’s war in Ukraine. Russia has begun sending natural gas to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline system after a pause, bringing relief to the continent whose economy was starting to wobble under the strain of reduced supplies.  The US and UK now estimate that Russia has had more than 15,000 soldiers die in its war against Ukraine. 

Amid protests over the economic crisis, Ranil Wickremesinghe has been elected President of Sri Lanka. Angola’s former president Jose Eduardo dos Santos died at the age of 79. Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was assassinated while giving a campaign speech in Nara. 

Florida:

Down here in Florida, we’ve recently had some issues with our drawbridges. A few months ago, a woman in her 70s fell to her death, when the north Palm Beach bridge was opened while she was walking on it. The bridge operator wasn’t paying attention and was on her cellphone during the incident. On Thursday, the bridge operator agree to pay an $8.2 million settlement for the fall.  A massive twin tower luxury condo building, Olara, is being planned for North Flagler Drive in West Palm Beach, by the Savanna Fund. 

Jokes and Such:

Will update next issue. 

Repo Commentary-02/18/22

Sorry I have not been writing the Repo Commentary. The last one I wrote was 9/10/21, the day before 9/11. Much has been happening in life, job opportunities, and COVID-19 related stuff. I’m going to TRY not to catch you all up on ALL of the news that has happened since 9/11.

I lost two dear friends, Jim Malgieri, who unexpectedly passed away at age 61 and Bill Bolton, who passed away at age 63 from a heart attack.  Jim was a great man with a heart of gold. I had the pleasure of working with him at Morgan Stanley for several years and then working with him as a customer for my entire career. There were many golf rounds, lunches, dinners, and get-togethers over the many years. He was one of my closest friends on the Street. He had a way of entering everyone’s life and leaving a smile. He will be very missed. Bill was one of the top interdealer brokers during his tenure and one of my groomsmen at my 2nd wedding. He was a close friend and confidante for decades, and was full of life and energy. A former surfer in Hawaii, he finally ‘retired’ to be a nationally-ranked swimming coach nearby in Florida. He also wound up saving a woman’s life, after her car flipped over and sunk in a canal in Florida. 


I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry. Although I have completed several projects (below) and am looking to lend my 39 years of expertise to firms via consulting or via full-time positions.
  
•	I designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo, consulting with Pierpoint’s Finance Academy. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo. 
•	I continue my opinion and expertise with the industry through articles in various periodicals. 
•	I am consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.  
•	I am consulting on a new product for the Repo market, Modified Repo, which could solve many industry issues, from liquidity to balance sheet optimization, to even Firesale Risk. 
•	I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums. 

So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, call my mobile (646-753-1300), email (jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or hit me up on LinkedIn.  


My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under at work or even remotely. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former employers and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better! 


Holidays or Events (02/18):

•	Dialect Day (Amami Islands, Japan)
•	Independence Day (the Gambia from UK)
•	Kurdish Students Union Day (Iraqi Kurdistan)
•	National Democracy Day (1951 overthrow of the Rana Dynasty in Nepal)
•	Wife’s Day-Konudagur (Iceland)
•	Cow Milked While Flying in an Airplane Day
•	Crab-Stuffed Flounder Day
•	National Battery Day
•	National Caregivers Day
•	National Drink Wine Day
•	National Woman’s Heart Day
•	Pluto Discovery Day
•	Thumb Appreciation Day
Monday is a Federal holiday in the United States, Presidents Day, which celebrates the birthdays of President George Washington (02/22) and President Abraham Lincoln (02/12). Congress designated 02/22 as the first federal holiday (Washington’s Birthday) to honor an individual’s birth date, a holiday for all federal workers, in 1885. In 1971, the Uniform Monday Holiday Law changed the date to the third Monday in February. The position between the two Presidents’ birthdays gave rise to the popular name of Presidents Day. Some offices, banks and businesses are closed. The Federal Reserve is closed and both the NYSE and the Nasdaq are closed, perhaps a welcome breather lately. State, local, and federal government offices are generally closed.

Some Famous People Born on (02/18):


•	1516-Mary I of England
•	1745-Alessandro Volta, Italian physicist, invented the battery
•	1848-Louis Comfort Tiffany, American stained glass artist
•	1862-Charles M. Schwab, American businessman, co-founded Bethlehem Steel
•	1890-Edward Arnold, American actor
•	1906-Hans Asperger, Austrian pediatrician and academic
•	1919-Jack Palance, American boxer and actor
•	1922-Helen Gurley Brown, American journalist and author
•	1925-George Kennedy, American actor
•	1931-Johnny Hart, American cartoonist, co-created The Wizard of Id
•	1933-Yoko Ono, Japanese-American multimedia artist and musician (accused of breaking up the Beatles)
•	1952-Juice Newton, American singer-songwriter and guitarist
•	1954-John Travolta, American actor, singer and producer
•	1968-Molly Ringwald, American actress

Daily Weird Facts:

 
In 1986, a volcanic lake in Cameroon, Africa burped a CO2 gas cloud that killed 1,746 people in minutes. 

  

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:



“Your daily life is your temple and your religion. When you enter into it take with you your all.”—Khalil Gibran 



Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:
 
$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18 
$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18
$48.63 on 01/07/19 
$73.77/barrel on 4/29
$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20
$35.92/barrel on 3/11
$27.15/barrel on 3/18
$24.90/barrel on 4/01
$31.80/barrel on 4/12
$28.31/barrel on 4/17
$20.03/barrel on 4/27 
$35.69/barrel on 5/20
$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21
$66.34/barrel on 03/05
$61.30/barrel on 04/01
$63.68/barrel on 05/13
$72.25/barrel on 06/15
$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!
$72.30/barrel on 07/15
$68.03/barrel on 08/13
$68.06/barrel on 09/09
$90.99/barrel on 02/18/22


When I last wrote on 9/10/21, my West Palm Beach gas station was charging $3.39/gallon. Today, 2/18/22, it is charging exactly the same price. That’s interesting because Oil is up over 30% since 09/10/21. In fact, the price of Oil hasn’t reached this lofty level in more than 3 years, when US exploration was booming. 



One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates). I did decide to trim this running list to just a few dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20
99.23 on 03/11/20
103.55 on 12/16/20
110.63 on 04/01/21
108.61 on 04/28/21
110.05 on 06/15/21
111.44 on 07/02/21
109.94 on 07/15/21
109.59 on 08/13/21
109.92 on 09/10/21
115.15 on 02/18/22


One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426 
12/06/19 at $1.1688
03/11/20 at $1.1937
05/04/20 at $1.0903
12/16/20 at $1.2196
02/04/21 at $1.2625
04/01/21 at $1.1774
04/28/21 at $1.2123
07/02/21 at $1.1822
07/15/21 at $1.1806
08/13/21 at $1.1797
09/10/21 at $1.1820
02/18/22 at $1.1342


One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655 
12/06/19 at $1.3819
02/07/20 at $1.3574
03/24/20 at $1.2231
12/16/20 at $1.3494
02/16/21 at $1.3903
06/15/21 at $1.4083
07/02/21 at $1.3743
07/15/21 at $1.3819
08/13/21 at $1.3866
09/10/21 at $1.385
02/18/22 at $1.3583



One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18
1.2530 on 12/06/19
1.2390 on 01/17/20
1.3540 on 03/18/20
1.2752 on 12/16/20
1.2186 on 06/15/21
1.2417 on 07/02/21
1.2539 on 07/15/21
1.2515 on 08/13/21
1.2644 on 09/10/21
1.2737 on 02/18/22


With data showing reemerging inflation and the Fed’s concern about inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation has become a popular topic again soon. In addition, military unrest on the Ukrainian border increases the rush to gold. Gold prices:
 
10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce 
03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce
07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce
11/30/20 $1,774.00 
01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00
03/05/21 $1,698.70
04/28/21 $1,782.20
06/15/21 $1,859.90
07/02/21 $1,789.00
07/15/21 $1,828.00
08/13/21 $1,781.50
09/09/21 $1,797.20
02/28/22 $1,897.60


Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):
  
$8,185.21 on 7/25/18 
$6,350.00 on 10/5/18
$3,774.97 on 12/24/18
$3,598.90 on 01/16/19 
$3,421.10 on 02/06/19 
$8,100.00 on 05/16/19
$7,215.79 on 05/17/19
$11,919.30 on 06/25/19
$9,790.37 on 07/24/19
$10,183.90 on 09/10/19
$8,235.46 on 10/02/19
$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20
$9,793.18 on 02/07/20
$7,871.60 on 03/11/20
$3,867.00	 on 03/13/20
$5,216.64 on 03/18/20
$6,728.03 on 03/24/20
$7,748.29 on 04/27/20
$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event
$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event
$10,849.00 on 07/27/20
$15,160.90 on 11/10/20
$19,411.50 on 11/30/20
$20,665.10 on 12/16/20
$31,592.20 on 01/04/21
$36,607.50 on 02/04/21
$48,526.90 on 02/16/21
$58,093.71 on 02/21/21
$43,170.01 on 02/28/21
$49,207.43 on 03/05/21
$58,979.60 on 04/01/21
$63,237.00 on 04/15/21
$54,886.50 on 04/28/21
$54,242.00 on 05/12/21
$39,804.90 on 06/15/21
$33,039.30 on 07/02/21
$31,280.00 on 07/15/21
$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!
$46,574.40 on 09/09/21
$67,582.60 on 11/08/21 not a Commentary date, but the all-time high
$35,070.10 on 01/22/22 not a Commentary date, but relevant to show its volatility
$40,015.10 on 02/18/22 



On 3/13/20, just post COVID-19 breakout, Bitcoin had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It made almost exactly a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels, wiping out all 2021 gains. All of a sudden, it is began climbing higher again in the Fall of 2021, hitting an all-time high of $67,582.10 on 11/08/21. But, volatility wasn’t over and was not for the faint of heart. The SEC signaled it is willing to take a hard line approach towards cryptoasset regulation and what Chair Gary Gensler has called the “Wild West of finance”, by threatening to sue Coinbase over a plan to offer accounts that pay interest on cryptoasset holdings. This has also intensified the debate about the SEC’s jurisdiction over cryptoassets. All of this led to another massive correction of nearly 50% (again), bringing it down to interim low of $35,070.10 on 01/22/22. It had rallied back to about $45,000 recently, until falling to today’s number. 

The FSB issued a report that estimated that the crypto market capitalization grew 3.5 times in 2021 to a value of $2.6 trillion. The FSB says that the booming crypto assets market could pose a serious threat to financial stability, if regulators fail to take action. The FSB is the global watchdog which monitors financial authorities in 24 countries. “Systemically important banks and other financial institutions are increasingly willing to undertake activities in, and gain exposures to, crypto assets. The prevalence of more complex investment strategies, including through derivatives and other leveraged products that reference crypto assets, also has increased,” according to the FSB. The FSB went on to say, “As in the case of the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, as small amount of known exposure does not necessarily mean a small amount of risk, particularly if there exists a lack of transparency and insufficient regulatory coverage.” The report looked at the vulnerabilities of 3 aspects of crypto assets markets: unbacked currencies such as bitcoin; stablecoins such as Tether, which is backed by reserve assets; and decentralized finance (DeFi) and crypto asset trading platforms. FSB showed concern about consumer vulnerability to high credit and operational risk, liquidity mismatch, and reserve runs, as well as apparent high price volatility, the environmental impact of running mining machines, and the potential uses for money laundering, ransomware, and cybercrime. The FBI has established a cryptocurrency unit as part of the Justice Department’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team to evaluate crimes that involve cryptocurrencies and perform its own blockchain analysis. 

Brexit:

Brexit seems to be unravelling and there is panic among Boris Johnson’s allies. Many UK (71%) exporters are saying that Brexit hurts business and has increased prices.  But, Jacob Rees-Mogg says there is little evidence that Brexit hit trade hard. The UK government is now being forced to seek state-by-state US trade ties, after President Biden rejected a US-UK post-Brexit free trade deal. 


Global Financial News:

$2.2 trillion in derivatives linked to equities are due to expire today, according to Goldman Sachs. During the last 12 months, equity indices often have declined ahead of expiration of a large number of equity options. G-20 finance leaders released a statement that cites inflation and geopolitical risk as the main impediments to economic recovery from the pandemic. They also pointed to the disproportionate access to vaccination from nation to nation. Cecilia Rouse, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said during a Senate appearance that inflationary pressures “will begin to ease as COVID cases gradually decrease.” Separately, Fed’s James Bullard said that it is ”important to get moving” and reiterated a call to raise the Fed Funds target rate by a full percentage point (100bp) by the beginning of July. Senators have voted in favor of a bill that would allow the US government funding at the existing level until March 11, averting a shutdown ahead of today’s deadline. The bill now goes to the President for signoff. Once again, we have kicked the can down the road on shutdown and debt ceiling. A survey of primary dealers of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY shows high satisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s management and communication of switch to tightening policy. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has asked consumers to provide input to the agency to help identify potential new rules for banks and lenders. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase (according to Bloomberg) say they expect China’s benchmark CSI 300 Index to break out of its bearish conditions and rise to record highs over the next 12 months. Goldman Sachs, per Reuters, aims to boost return on tangible equity to 15%-17% from 14% and ROE to 14%-16% from 13% over the next 3 years. It plans to focus on Asset Management, Consumer Business and Transaction Banking to compensate for expected slowdowns in trading and investment banking. According to Standard Chartered CEO Winters, if Hong Kong leaves its harsh COVID-19 restrictions in place for too long, it could start losing business to Tokyo and Singapore, and its dominant role as a financial hub. The SEC is working on establishing rules for corporate reporting of greenhouse gas emissions but is facing issues on how much or how little information needs to be disclosed. Particularly, Scope 3 emissions are proving to be challenging. The European Commission plans to improve the transparency of the EU’s carbon market by pursuing the reporting of more granular data on the various types of emission derivatives being traded. 


US Market News:


At levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is still well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. But, it has retreated since the beginning of 2022, when it set a record high. We have retreated about 2,000 points from that level, due to uncertainty about the economy, over-valuations in certain industries, remnants of the impact of the pandemic, and military rumblings along the Ukrainian border with Russia. In fact, NATO is warning about an imminent attack by Russia, as Russia continues to demand that NATO not accept Ukraine as a member nation. US Jobless Claims were up, while Housing Starts were down. 

Here are the latest DJIA closes (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates): 


02/17/22  34,312.03
01/04/22	36,799.65 all-time record high close
09/08/21  35,031.07
08/13/21  35,515.38
07/14/21  34,933.23
07/01/21  34,633.53 
05/12/21  33,587.66
03/31/21  32,981.55
01/13/21	31,060.47
12/31/20	30,606.48
12/01/20	29,823.92
11/09/20	29,157.97
07/24/20	26,469.89
07/22/20	27,005.84
06/26/20	25,015.55
06/08/20	27,572.44
6/03/20	26,269.89
5/27/20	25,548.27
4/17/20	24,242.49
3/23/20    18,591.93
3/03/20	25,917.41
2/12/20	29,551.42 pre-pandemic high


 

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58 
12/26/18 at 2,467.70 
12/06/19 at 3,145.91
02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high
03/23/20 at 2,237.40
12/15/20 at 3,647.49
01/13/21 at 3,809.84
02/03/21 at 3,830.17
02/16/21 at 3,923.59
03/05/21 at 3,841.94
03/31/21 at 3,972.89
05/12/21 at 4,063.04
07/01/21 at 4,319.94
07/14/21 at 4,374.30
08/13/21 at 4,468.00
09/09/21 at 4,493.28
01/03/22 at 4,796.56 all-time high
02/17/22 at 4,380.26


S&P has drifted only a bit from its all-time high of seven weeks ago.


Nasdaq closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 7,788.45
12/26/18 at 6,554.36
12/06/19 at 8,656.07
02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high 
03/23/20 at 6,860.67
06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!
12/15/20 at 12.505.06
01/13/21 at 13,128.95 
02/03/21 at 13,610.54
02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high
03/05/21 at 12,920.15
03/31/21 at 13,246.87
05/12/21 at 13,031.68
07/01/21 at 14,522.38
07/14/21 at 14,644.95
08/13/21 at 14,822.90 
09/08/21 at 15,286.64 
12/27/21 at 15,871.26 all-time high
02/17/22 at 13,716.72

Nasdaq managed to reach its all-time high before 2021 ended, but has suffered a 13% drop since, as tech has gotten hit hard.

The US Treasury market is focused not only on Inflation, the Fed’s announced tightening policy, and Ukraine and Russia. Two-year yields are now way back to where they were almost exactly two years ago.


2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%
12/18/18 at 2.65%
12/06/19 at 1.61%
02/06/20 at 1.44%
03/11/20 at 0.50%
03/17/20 at 0.47%
03/23/20 at 0.28% 
05/10/20 at 0.16% 
07/24/20 at 0.14% 
12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!
01/04/21 at 0.11%
01/13/21 at 0.14%
02/03/21 at 0.11%
02/16/21 at 0.11%
03/05/21 at 0.14%
03/31/21 at 0.16%
05/12/21 at 0.16%
07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!
07/14/21 at 0.23%
08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%
09/09/21 at 0.23%
02/17/22 at 1.49% what a dramatic change, as the Fed moved into tightening policy to rein in inflation


3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%
12/18/18 at 2.64%
01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)
12/06/19 at 1.64%
02/06/20 at 1.43%
03/11/20 at 0.58%
03/17/20 at 0.54%
03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!
05/10/20 at 0.21%
07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!
11/09/20 at 0.25%
12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!
01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!
01/13/21 at 0.22%
02/16/21 at 0.17%
03/05/21 at 0.32%
03/31/21 at 0.35%
05/12/21 at 0.35%
07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!
07/14/21 at 0.44%
08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21
09/09/21 at 0.43%
02/17/22 at 1.70% back to 2019 levels



5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%
12/18/18 at 2.65%
12/06/19 at 1.67%
02/07/20 at 1.45%
03/11/20 at 0.66%
03/17/20 at 0.56%
03/23/20 at 0.38% 
03/26/20 at 0.51%
03/31/20 at 0.37%
07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!
12/15/20 at 0.37%
01/04/21 at 0.36%
01/13/21 at 0.48%
02/03/21 at 0.46%
02/16/21 at 0.42%
03/05/21 at 0.79%
03/31/21 at 0.92%
05/12/21 at 0.87%
07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase
07/14/21 at 0.80%
08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21
09/09/21 at 0.79%
02/17/22 at 1.85% also back to 2019 levels


7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%
12/18/18 at 2.74%
12/06/19 at 1.78%
02/06/20 at 1.56%
03/11/20 at 0.78%
03/17/20 at 0.91%
03/23/20 at 0.63% 
03/26/20 at 0.72%
03/31/20 at 0.55%
07/24/20 at 0.44% record low
11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level
12/15/20 at 0.64%
01/04/21 at 0.64%
01/13/21 at 0.80%
02/03/21 at 0.81%
02/16/21 at 0.76%
03/05/21 at 1.23%
03/31/21 at 1.40%
05/12/21 at 1.34%
07/01/21 at 1.24% 
07/14/21 at 1.11%
08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21
09/09/21 at 1.08%
02/17/22 at 1.94% also back to 2019 levels

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%
12/18/18 at 2.82%
09/09/19 at 1.83%
10/01/19 at 1.65% 
12/06/19 at 1.84% 
02/06/20 at 1.65% 
03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!
03/17/20 at 1.02% 
03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again
07/24/20 at 0.59% record low
11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level
12/15/20 at 0.92%
01/04/21 at 0.93%
01/13/21 at 1.10%
02/03/21 at 1.15%
02/16/21 at 1.09%
03/05/21 at 1.56%
03/31/21 at 1.74%
05/12/21 at 1.69%
07/01/21 at 1.48%
07/14/21 at 1.37% 
08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21
09/09/21 at 1.30%
02/17/22 at 1.97% 


30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%
12/18/18 at 3.07%
07/24/19 at 2.58%
09/10/19 at 2.11%
12/06/19 at 2.29%
02/06/20 at 2.11%
03/11/20 at 1.30%
03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!
03/23/20 at 1.33% back down
07/24/20 at 1.23% record low
11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level
12/15/20 at 1.65%
01/04/21 at 1.66%
01/13/21 at 1.82%
02/03/21 at 1.92%
02/16/21 at 1.84%
03/05/21 at 2.28%
03/31/21 at 2.41%
05/12/21 at 2.40%
07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%
07/14/21 at 1.98%
08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21
09/09/21 at 1.90%
02/17/22 at 2.31% 
	

Housing News:

The big housing news, besides the housing boom in Florida, is that Zillow, which purchased a record number of homes in the Q2 (although fewer than its competitor Opendoor purchased), has decided to halt purchasing homes outright. This strategic decision to stop its automated home-flipping business was implemented temporarily, according to Bloomberg. The company says that the halt was due to its being “beyond operational capacity in [Zillow Offers] business.” Zillow is now connecting homeowners who are looking to sell their homes to its local Premier Agent partners. The news was not received well by investors, as Zillow’s stock took a beating after Sunday’s announcement. It appears that the online real-estate company, nearly 17 years in the business, poorly managed the human aspect of the business, while developing the technology to accurately predict home values. So, it was supply constraints on the human vendor side. Yet, Opendoor Technologies didn’t seem to have a problem handling high volumes. Opendoor now operates in 44 markets, and all but 2 of Zillow’s 25 markets. It’s a kind of odd situation with the backdrop that nationally the country is in short supply of homes for people to purchase, but Zillow now has a backlog of homes to sell.  
 
Today’s US Census Bureau and US Dept of HUD jointly announced the statistics for January. Building Permits were up 0.7% over December rate and up 0.8% year/year. Housing Starts, however, were down 4.1% over December rate, but still up 0.8% year/year. That was a large chunk of a decline month/month. Single-Family Housing Starts were worse, down 5.6% month/month.  Housing Completions, probably due to horrific weather throughout the middle and northeast of the country, were down 5.2% month/month and down 6.2% year/year. 

It is still unclear if the “Great Reshuffling” that Zillow predicts (a permanence in remote work due to COVID-19), is taking place or not yet. Some companies are saying that for a month or so, employees can work from home. But, then there is also the impact of several companies now requiring employees to be vaccinated, which has differing impacts. See HEALTH section below. The fastest rent rise in 5 years is adding to concerns over UK cost of living increase. 
 


Repo/Securities Financing News:                               


So, I mentioned at the start that I am currently consulting on a new product for the Securities Financing market, Modified Repo. It could impact broker/dealers, CCPs, seclending agents, mREITs, pension funds, municipalities, money funds, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, corporate credit unions, ETFs, hedge funds, asset managers, and other sectors.  If you get a chance, ask me about it.



Federal Reserve News:


The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 0.00-0.25% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks.  


The next FOMC meetings are:  03/16/22, 05/04/22, 06/15/22, 07/27/22, 09/21/22, 11/02/22, and 12/14/22. All of the scheduled meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we are in. At the last FOMC meeting on 01/26/22, the accompanying statement focused on the Fed’s longer-run goals, tightening monetary policy as a strategy to rein in inflation, and the principles for reducing the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. It decided to leave the interest rate paid on Reserve balances at 0.15%, maintained the Fed Funds rate target in a range of 0.00-0.25% (unchanged), complete the increase of SOMA holdings of US Treasuries by $40 billion and Agency MBS by $20 billion per its monthly purchase plan, but reduce that in February to $20 billion and $10 billion respectively, while leaving it the option to buy Treasuries and Agency MBS as it sees fit to sustain smooth functioning of those outright markets. It also agreed to continue to reinvest all principal payments from US Treasuries and interest payments from Agency Debt and Agency MBS into Agency MBS purchases. It also said it would continue to engage in Dollar Roll and Coupon Swap transactions as necessary to facilitate the settlement of the Fed’s Agency MBS transactions. It also said it would conduct O/N Repos with a minimum Bid rate of 0.25% and with a limit of $500 billion (which can be increased temporarily if necessary at the discretion of the Fed Chairman), conduct O/N Reverse Repo operations at an Offering rate of 0.05% and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day (a limit which can also be increased temporarily if necessary at the discretion of the Fed Chairman), 

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight. Note that the Fed has the nomenclature backwards, it is actually Repoing securities out of the Reverse Repo Program and taking cash IN from its perspective. As if Repo nomenclature, bid and offer, and acronyms weren’t hard enough for everybody. Since its inception in 2014, the balances in RRP have AVERAGED about $30-50 billion. Because of major dislocations of liquidity on the cash side of the Money Markets, lately the RRP balances have been setting daily records, over $1 trillion. The Money Markets have enormous amounts of cash sloshing around, unable to find Repo (collateral) at broker/dealers to invest in, and unable to find short-term US Treasury bills to buy. So, they have invested with the Federal Reserve. If Repo collateral actually becomes even less available, because there is further delay on raising the Debt Ceiling by Congress (US Treasury is estimated to run out of room/money sometime in November or December 2021), unless the Fed begins Tapering their QE monthly purchases of $80 billion US Treasuries and $40 billion Agency MBS. Of course, those two actions have many other consequences elsewhere. The latter would likely raise interest rates, counter to current Monetary Policy, and the former would bring back the question of the credit quality of the US Government and change the prices of those outright securities, further raising interest rates and making the payment of interest on outstanding US debt more expensive. 


At the 7/28 FOMC meeting, the Fed focused on progress on vaccinations and indicators of economic growth and employment continuing to strengthen. But, it said the sectors most effected by the pandemic have shown improvement but haven’t fully recovered. The Fed specifically linked the path of the economy to the path of the virus.  It cited that risks to the economic outlook remain. Pointing at its mandate for maximum employment and controlled inflation at about 2%, the Fed said that it would continue to maintain an accommodative stance on monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. It kept the target Fed Funds rate at 0.00-0.25%. 


The FOMC in July 2021 issued an additional statement regarding “Repurchase Agreement Arrangements”. It announced the establishment of a domestic Standing Repo Facility (SRF) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). Both facilities are intended to be backstops to the money market. The SRF will have daily O/N repo operations against US Treasuries, Agency Debentures, and Agency MBS pools, with a maximum total size of $500 billion. The minimum bid rate for repos under the facility will be the top end of the Fed Funds range, currently 0.25%, which is currently ABOVE the general level of O/N Repo Rates.  Again, let’s make sure we understand the backward nomenclature. Although the Fed is referring to this facility as Repo, they are actually taking IN Collateral and putting OUT cash (which you and I know is the definition of a Reverse Repo from our or the Fed’s perspective). The initial counterparties will be their 22 Primary Dealers, which we knew, and be expanded to other ‘depository institutions.’ The FIMA repo facility will actually operate a little easier, as the Fed will enter into O/N reverse repos as needed with foreign official institutions against their holding of US Treasuries already maintained in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, mostly in the SOMA accounts. That rate will also be 0.25% now and the per counterparty limit will be $60 billion. This facility could be key for these institutions to receive US dollar funding, when propping up their own currencies, rather than selling their US Treasuries outright. 


So, just reviewing only these 2 tools in the ever-expanding toolbox of the Federal Reserve (in addition to the 5 tools/programs from the Financial Crisis, which are dormant), it will potentially look like this:

SRF/FIMA facility=Collateral in to Fed and Cash out to broker/dealers, banks, international monetary authorities, depository institutions
RRP=Cash in to Fed and Collateral out to broker/dealers, depository institutions, money funds, GSEs

On a Broker/Dealer Balance Sheet, that looks just like a Repo Matched Book:

Reverse Repo=Collateral into B/D and Cash out
Repo=Cash into B/D and Collateral out

The differences are that the size of the Fed’s matched programs are likely going to be much larger than any B/D Repo Matched Book (since at least 2007), the B/D does not get to set the Bid rate at 0.25% and Offer rate at 0.05% for a 20bp bid/offer spread/return, the B/D is likely making Repo markets to a more expanded group of sectors of clients, and the B/D is now operating under dozens of stricter regulations.


Earthquakes and Volcanoes:


Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. Activity seems concentrated in the South Pacific, especially on both sides of the Pacific Rim:

02/18 4.9 W of Macquarie Island
02/18 4.5 NW of Tual, Indonesia
02/17 5.1 Mid-Indian Ridge
02/17 5.1 ESE of Ishinomaki, Japan
02/17 5.2 SSW of Chirilagua, El Salvador
02/17 5.5 Kermadec Islands, New Zealand
02/17 4.6 Xinjiang-Qinghai border region
02/17 5.1 S of Banjar, Indonesia
02/17 5.2 SSW of Ohonua, Tonga




Weather:

	 
After balmy weather in the Midwest and Northeast that melted most of the snow in the last few days, temperatures plummeted by as much as degrees in some areas, bringing a large cold front in from the Plains and Canada into the upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, and the Northeast. It is preceded by strong gusty winds and followed by a strong clipper system which will bring snow, cold temperatures, and blizzard conditions across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Here in Florida, after a mild cold front that dipped temperatures into the 50s and 60s with strong winds, we have risen back into the low 80s with plenty of sunshine.


The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGINS June 1st and ends November 30th.  On 12/09/21, CSU issued an extended forecast for the 2022 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 13-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. La Nina pattern should keep the area active, after two consecutive years of higher-than-average named storms. La Nina has the opposite effect from El Nino, which is when Pacific waters are warmed and there tends to be fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic. 2021 was the third most active hurricane season on record for named storms with 21 named storms and 7 hurricanes. 2020 had 30 named storms and 2005 had 28 named storms.


The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGINS 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. Cyclone Batsirai made landfall in Madagascar, displacing at least 112,000 people and leaving more than 100 dead.



Sports News:       



MLB:


In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

In the 2021 pandemic-impacted season, in the World Series, the Atlanta Braves shocked the sports world by beating the favored Houston Astros 4 games to 2. 


For 2022, pitchers and catchers were supposed to report to Spring Training on 02/16/22. After contentious wrangling between the Players Union and the owners over the Collective Bargaining Agreement, no one showed up yet to Spring Training. There are worries that Spring Training will be cancelled and/or the regular season could be cancelled or delayed. Remember, in 1994, MLB players went on strike. The sport took a few years to recover, helped along by a HR battle between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa that brought the fans back and seemed to be enthusiastically supported by Owners, who made a lot of money on the rebirth. But, then when it came to the Hall of Fame, MLB and the owners turned the back on the two steroid-amped sluggers. So, I think I will be singing a couple of Spring Training game National Anthems for the Astros, Nationals, Marlins and/or Cardinals, but we’ll see.


Golf:


The PGA Tour 2020-2021 season was an expanded one, due to COVID-19 related cancellations and postponements, mostly in 2020. Although most touring pros play between 20 and 30 tournaments in the season, the actual season was comprised of an expanded 50 official PGA events. The 2022 season kicked off in Hawaii and has now moved to the California leg. The PGA Tour’s Genesis Invitational, hosted by Tiger Woods, is being held at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, CA. Today, in Round 2, J. Niemann is leading at -12, after opening with a blistering 63. In an interview, Tiger expressed his frustration with his slow recovery from his car crash that left one of his legs crippled (it nearly had to be amputated). His goals are still to walk normally again and possibly play a few golf tournaments a year. He does not expect to play full golf schedule ever again. Anika Sorenstam, continuing her comeback after 11 years of retirement, has filed entry into the US Women’s Open. A fire has devastated the iconic Oakland Hills CC clubhouse. World No.1 ranked Jon Rahm was voted the European Tour’s Player of the Year. A breakaway Saudi-backed Super Golf League is threatening the PGA Tour. It would be fronted by Greg Norman. Several PGA players have come out against it, including Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, and Brooks Koepka. Reportedly, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Adam Scott, and Phil Mickelson have been mulling offers from the new league. There is a rumor that Bryson is being offered as much as $135 million. Norman announced in January that the Saudi-funded golf tournaments would be played in Great Britain and the Middle East as part of a new 10-event series on the Asian Tour. Norman intends to hold tournaments in the future also on US soil. 


NFL:


The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. It was the first time that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

The 2021 NFL season ended with a dramatic playoff schedule of many close and Overtime games. In the end, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals (who were the worst team in the NFL only 2 years ago), 23-20. The Rams did not cover the 4 point spread. Rams WR Cooper Kupp was named the MVP of the Super Bowl and the game was played coincidentally in the Rams’ brand new home stadium, which cost $5.2 billion to build. It was only the second time (and in a row) that a team had played in the Super Bowl in their home stadium.

For those Washington Football Team fans, the options for the new name were: Defenders, Commanders, Presidents, Armada, Redhawks, Brigade, and just leaving it as is. A couple of weeks ago, Washington chose Commanders as the new name. Doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. Already in this off-season there have been many coaching changes, major retirements, and available free agents.  Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and Bucs QB Tom Brady announced their retirements. Also announcing their retirements from the NFL: Rams WR Eric Weddle, Eagles Guard Brandon Brooks, Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi, Ravens S Anthony Levine, and Falcons TE Lee Smith. There were 7 Head Coach changes for 2022, including the helm of Vikings, Bears, Giants, Broncos, Jaguars, Raiders, and Dolphins. The latter one was a bit of a surprise, since under Flores, the Dolphins made the playoffs. After his dismissal, accused and sued the NFL and the Dolphins ownership of racial discrimination and accused the owner of the Dolphins of offering him an extra $100,000 for each game the Dolphins lost 2 years ago (which would have put them on track for the No.1 pick in the NFL Draft).  The Bengals extended the contract with head coach Taylor. The Cowboys have agreed to pay $2.4 million to settle cheerleaders’ locker-room voyeurism claims. The big question out there was whether Aaron Rodgers, after losing the NFC Championship, might finally retire. But, just announced, the former head coach of the Packers is coming out of retirement to coach his former team. This may mollify Rodgers and have him continue. He has been a lot less waffling about his engagement, which he just called off, to Shailene Woodley. 


NCAA Basketball


The 2020-2021 season began in November. The 2021 NCAA tournament, March Madness, yielded the national champion, undefeated Gonzaga. We are rapidly approaching the 2022 NCAA tournament now. Coach K exited a Duke game this week with an illness. MSU head coach Izzo is one win behind tying Bobby Knight for most Big Ten wins. 



NHL:



The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic. In the end, The Tampa Bay Lightning repeated as Stanley Cup Champions, beating the Montreal Canadiens 4-1. 

The 2021-2022 season began on 10/20/21 (Wednesday) and is in the midst of its normal 82-game schedule. On Tuesday night, Sydney Crosby scored his 500th goal. 


NBA: 


The 2020-2021 NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The 2021-2022 NBA season is in the midst of its normal 82-game schedule and has seen some huge trades in the past few days. At the trade deadline, the Brooklyn Nets traded star James Harden to the 76ers for star Ben Simmons. The back story is that Harden has more or less forced his way out. Harden is still out through at least the All-Star break and his new team got crushed Tuesday night after the trade by the Celtics, 135-87. The Celtics are on a 9-game winning streak. Announcer Charles Barkley says he will “probably” retire from TNT at the end of his contract. The Milwaukee Bucks signed DeAndre’ Bembry. Timberwolves signed Beverley to a 1year contract extension. The All-Star game is this Saturday night. 


Olympics

The Winter Olympics are in full swing in Beijing, China. However, the Games have been hampered by the pandemic, forcing some athletes not to compete and forcing those that got sick while at the Olympics to have to withdraw and be quarantined. Also, there has been minimal crowd presence, due to pandemic restrictions. The NHL refused to let any of its players play in this Winter Games, due to the omicron variant. Russia is banned by the IOC from competing due to their recent blood-doping scandal. Russian skater Kamila Valieva broke into tears after taking the ice for the first time since the controversial doping scandal ruling. The 15-year-old has been at the center of Russia’s doping scandal, and although the crowd was very supportive, IOC officials have been postponing any medal ceremonies that could involve Valieva, as they sort out what to do with her. She had been cleared by a top sports court on Monday to participate in competition, despite being tested and found positive for a banned substance. During her performance, NBC announcers Johnny Weir and Tara Lipinski were decidedly silent, holding back their comments but not their feelings. USA women’s hockey team will play nemesis Canada for the Gold medal. USA men’s hockey team was also on track to play for gold medal, having won all of their games so far. But, Slovakia tied them with 43 seconds left on Wednesday and then won in a shootout in their Quarterfinal game. Canada men were also stunned by Finland, clearly USA and Canada were most impacted by not having their NHL players.  Sweden, Finland, Slovakia, and ROC (Russia) are in the Semifinals. USA Curling men’s and women’s teams are also on track for potential gold medals. As of 02/16/22, the medal count (of a total of over 300 medals to be awarded in 15 sports and 109 events) stands at:

1.	Norway 13 gold, 28 total
2.	Germany 10 gold, 20 total
3.	USA 8 gold, 19 total
4.	China 7 gold, 13 total
5.	Austria 6 gold, 17 total
You may be wondering, as was I, why does Norway continue to rack up Winter Olympic medals? It has a cold climate and a love of winter sports. But, it also has lottery-funded programs to develop Olympic athletes, which make it a perennial powerhouse. Other countries, like the US, rely on lucrative sports, not some of the obscure winter sports, to generate more participation.

Auto Racing: 


The NASCAR Cup Series of 2022 has begun. Here is the 2022 schedule and winners:

02/06/22 Busch Clash at LA Memorial Coliseum-Joey Logano
02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona
02/17/22 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona
02/20/22 DAYTONA 500
02/27/22 Wise Power 400 Fontana,CA
03/06/22 Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas
03/13/22 Ruoff Mortgage 500 at Phoenix
03/20/22 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta
03/27/22 EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix at Austin
04/03/22 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway
04/09/22 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 400 at Martinsville
04/17/22 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol
04/24/22 GEICO 500 at Talladega
05/01/22 DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover
05/08/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington
05/15/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas
05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Open at Texas 
05/22/22 NASCAR All-Star Race at Texas
05/29/22 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway
06/05/22 NASCAR Cup Series at WWTR in Illinois
06/12/22 Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway
06/26/22 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway
07/03/22 Kwik Trip 250 presented by JOCKEY at Road America
07/10/22 Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart at Atlanta
07/17/22 Ambettor 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
07/24/22 NASCAR Cup Series at Pocono Raceway
07/31/22 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard Indianapolis
08/07/22 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan
08/14/22 Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond
08/21/22 Go Bowling at The Glen, Watkins Glen
08/27/22 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona
09/04/22 PLAYOFFS round of 16: Southern 500 at Darlington
09/11/22 PLAYOFFS: Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas
09/17/22 PLAYOFFS: Bass Pros Shops Night Race at Bristol
09/25/22 PLAYOFFS round of 12: AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas
10/02/22 PLAYOFFS: YellaWood 500 at Talladega
10/09/22 PLAYOFFS: Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte
10/16/22 PLAYOFFS round of 8: South Point 400 at Las Vegas
10/23/22 PLAYOFFS: Dixie Vodka 400 at Homestead-Miami
10/30/22 PLAYOFFS: Xfinity 500 at Martinsville
11/06/22 PLAYOFFS CHAMPIONSHIP at Phoenix 


Formula One integrity is hanging in the balance after failure to publish an Abu Dhabi report.  There was a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. F1 has announced another 23-race F1 calendar for 2022. Here is the 2022 schedule and here are the winners:

03/20/22-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix
03/27/22-Saudi Arabia
04/10/22-Australia Heineken
04/24/22-Italy Rolex Gran Premio Dell-Emilia Romagna
05/08/22-United States Crypto.com Miami 
05/22/22-Spain Pirelli Gran Premio de Espana
05/29/22-Monaco
06/12/22-Azerbaijan
06/19/22-Canada
07/03/22-Great Britain
07/10/22-Austria Grosser Preis Von Osterreich
07/24/22-France
07/31/22-Hungary Magyar Nagydij
08/28/22-Belgium Rolex 
09/04/22-Netherlands Heineken Dutch
09/11/22-Italy Pirelli Gran Premio D’Italia
09/25/22-Russia VTB
10/02/22-Singapore
10/09/22-Japan
10/23/22-United States Aramco
10/30/22-Mexico
11/13/22-Brazil Heineken
11/30/22-Abu Dhabi Etihad Airways



IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  The 2022 schedule and the winners:

02/27/22 St. Petersburg
03/20/22 Texas
04/10/22 Long Beach
05/01/22 Barber
05/14/22 Indy Road Course
05/29/22 Indy 500
06/05/22 Detroit
06/12/22 Elkhart Lake
07/03/22 Mid-Ohio
07/17/22 Toronto
07/23/22 Iowa
07/24/22 iowa
07/30/22 Indy Road Course
08/07/22 Nashville
08/20/22 St. Louis
09/04/22 Portland
09/22/22 Laguna Seca


 
Travel News:


Ecosystems around lakes all over the world are changing and it may cause those lakes to look very different sooner than later. On a similar topic, lovers of Lake Tahoe take an aggressive approach year-round to “Keep Tahoe Blue”, with people regularly diving in the lake to the bottom to clean up any garbage in the lake that straddles the Nevada and California border. Saudi Arabia has turned an oil rig into a resort for thrill-seekers, renovating an old rig with 800 hotel rooms, 11 restaurants, water slides, a wave pool, roller coasters, ziplines, bungee-jumping, go-karts, submersibles, and even a Ferris wheel. Naturally, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund has named it “The Rig”. Investigators believe a massive 1,200-foot Panamanian cargo ship ruptured the California oil pipeline with its anchor, dragging the pipeline and releasing thousands of gallons of crude oil into the ocean off of California. Delta and Peloton are teaming up to offer stretching classes in the air. Supposedly, it won’t impact the passenger next to you on already tight-seating flights. The new classes will be available, complete with instructors, for “all Delta Air Lines flights equipped with seatback entertainment globally.” The classes will focus on stretching and mid-flight meditation. I’m still skeptical of the impact in such close quarters, but it’s a brilliant branding move by Peloton.  A rogue 58-foot wave off the coast of Canada’s Vancouver Island in 2020 took everyone by surprise. It was a record wave, not because of its height, but because of the disparity between it and all the waves around it. Researchers believe such a wave is so rare that is likely happens only once every 1,300 years. I’ve been extolling the virtues of the new high-speed train service here in Florida, Brightline, which was then purchased by Virgin Atlantic. They have beautiful trains with white upholstery and flight attendant service of snacks and drinks and gorgeous terminals (better than airport terminals) at West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, Miami, and Miami cruise ship nexus. Well, it started out great less than 4 years ago, cutting the commute time from West Palm Beach to Fort Lauderdale to 30min at 88mph (from what would have been a horrendous drive on deadly I95 for as much as an hour) and to Miami in one hour (a drive on the same deadliest stretch of highway in the US on I95 that could take as much as 2 ½ hours)! I’ve taken it several times. Then, COVID-19 hit and the service had to be shut down for 17 months. It reopened a short while ago and I hopped on to go to and from Miami. Well, unfortunately, on the way back the train hit somebody committing suicide, so the 135 or so of us found ourselves as part of some unfortunate man’s suicide, and also found ourselves with a 4-hour delay. Unfortunately, because the train travels at 88mph and runs on the same heavy track that the freight trains run on at about 20mph, many people and cars think they can get across below the gates without getting hit. But, also many people have found it a convenient way to commit suicide. In the short time that it has been operating, 50 people have already committed suicide on this stretch of track. It’s very hard to stop, as people could cross the track at any point, unless they put up many cameras so they can stop the train or they fence in all of their land. However, at the crossings, the fencing probably wouldn’t work. I don’t know the solution, but it is a big problem. Ironically, probably for the copycat attention, another man committed suicide in West Palm Beach the next day, stepping in front of a freight train on the same track. And, just two days ago a car tried to run the gate in Delray Beach on the same track and was demolished, killing one and injuring another. In other Brightline news, they just received a shipment of a train from California that can run at about 110mph, just as they are completing track extension to Orlando, to be followed by another track extension to Tampa. Meanwhile, a station for Boca Raton has been approved. Stay tuned for more updates! 


Health News:  


As of this today (02/18), globally, over 5.8 million people have died from COVID-19.  More than 420,549,512 people have been confirmed infected with COVID-19. In the US, confirmed cases of COVID-19 have surpassed 78.2 million peopleand are rising with the Omicron variant and slowdown of vaccinations. Of that, US deaths from the pandemic have surpassed 931,939. The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world. A BA.2 subvariant of Omicron has arrived, but lab studies point to no signs of severity. Omicron seemed to have less severe symptoms than the Delta variant, so it seems each variant is becoming less severe, especially for those people who have had both vaccinations and the booster. However, “stealth Omicron” could be more dangerous than the initial version. Despite being extremely careful throughout the pandemic, I finally tested positive on 12/29/21, unfortunately the day I was to fly to the Peach Bowl in Atlanta to see Michigan State beat Pittsburgh. I stayed home, so I wouldn’t infect anyone else, particularly those with weaker immune systems than I have. I had only a little fogginess, congestion, and a cough for a few days. Unfortunately, I kept testing positive for 16 days, so I kept quarantining! Here in Florida, the State reached 68,000 deaths, but hospitalizations have continued to go down.

Almost overnight, Japan has become a mysterious COVID-19 success story, and it is not sure whether to attribute it to masks or vaccines or something else. 70% of US adults now have at least 1 vaccine dose. Cases of COVID-19 are now surging in South Korea, prompting the government to allot a window specifically for those who test positive for the virus to vote in the election. 

A major topic in the news lately is about which companies or industries are requiring employees to be vaccinated or lose their jobs. With a nationwide spike in COVID-19 cases, particularly of the highly contagious Delta variant and Omicron variant (and concern about the new Delta+ variant), more companies have moved to require employees to be vaccinated. 

Let’s see if I can inject a little positive news. The pandemic has been blamed for many things going wrong in the world. It has even been named the culprit for the majority of folks gaining weight, unable to go to the gym, hanging around the house and overeating. I am aware that the quest for a satisfactory body for some of us is somewhat an eternal one. A drug called Regovy, which has previously been approved as a diabetes treatment, was approved by the FDA for weight loss in June. Some people have rightfully said that obesity reflects the inequities in our society as a whole, and the high cost of this medication (about $1600/month) seems to actually bolster that argument. Doctors are debating about the upcoming flu season.  Americans have had 2 light flu seasons in a row and that is probably most due to new levels of cleanliness and masks for covid-19. Now, that things have opened up a bit from the pandemic, some doctors worry that the flu season could be worse than the last two. For that matter, the common cold has seemed rarer too, probably for the same reasons, and that also may make a comeback. 5-to-11-year-old children will now be offered COVID-19 vaccine in England. People waiting for an organ on a waitlist who are Type O blood can be tragic, as it’s much harder. However, scientists in Canada report they are one step closer to the possibility of converting most organs to the universal blood Type O. A Brooklyn street gang has been arrested and charged with stealing $4.3 million in COVID-19 relief money, after getting caught flashing the cash on social media. Members of the Woo gang allegedly used 800 stolen identities to make a thousand false claims for pandemic unemployment benefits. 

Animal News:


Archaeologists have discovered the remains of a giant sea scorpion that date back about 435 million years ago.  The scorpion, found in China, measured a meter in length and had long barbed limbs. Researchers have discovered that Iron Age miners had dietary staples of cheese and beer in Europe. Researchers examined preserved fecal matter dating back 2,700 years from salt mines in Austria and found evidence of two species of fungi often used to ferment cheese and beer. Interestingly, miners from the 18th and 19th century had the same taste for cheese and beer. Last month, the first aardvark was born in the 90-year history of the Chester Zoo in England.  Aardvarks are native to sub-Saharan Africa and there are only 109 in zoos worldwide. 


Entertainment News:

I am in the midst of the 11-year program Criminal Minds on Netflix. I just finished season 9. I also watched the first 7 episodes of the 3rd season of Ozark just released, which was crazy, and I anxiously await the second set of 7 episodes to be released. I’m also trying to keep up with The Book of Boba Fett on Disney+.  Actor Zachary Horwitz admitted fabricating HBO and Netflix film deals in a $650-million Ponzi scheme that prosecutors say is the largest in Hollywood history. He has been sentenced to 20 years in prison. Nick Clegg has been promoted to the top job at Facebook. Prince Andrew remains in the news regarding accusations of a tie-in with Jeffrey Epstein’s trouble. Jess Phillips says the idea of Prince Andrew supporting such human trafficking is “ridiculous”. Lisa Barlow stormed off the set during the Season 2 reunion of Real Housewives of Salt Lake City. Chris and Deanna Daughtry send a message to supporters, 3 months after their daughter’s death. Kanye “Ye” West has filed an official response after Kim Kardashian requests to be legally single. Prince Harry said he “doesn’t feel safe” bringing his and Meghan Markle’s kids to the UK. John Mayer refers to himself as “America’s Ex-Boyfriend.” Brad Pitt has sued ex Angelina Jolie over their joint winery. If you ever wished you could live at Disneyland (and I’m sure many kids have), now you basically can.  UNCHARTED movie with Mark Wahlberg is getting bad reviews. Robert Pattinson is the latest BATMAN. Alex Baldwin and others have been named in the wrongful death lawsuit filed by the family of Halyna Hutchins. Coachella and Stagecoach festivals have just dropped their vaccination requirements. 



Technology & Space News:


Swatch is going back to its roots and relaunching many of the simple, yet groovy, watch styles that made the brand famous in the 1980s.  Google announced that it would run its operations at offices and data centers using energy from clean sources by 2030. iPhone manufacturer Foxconn has revealed its first electric-vehicle prototypes. Boeing’s Starliner Spaceship is delayed some more. Dubai has achieved a Guinness World Record, dedicated to the latest research on robotic and drone technologies. The city has made a name for itself over the last decade for innovations in architecture, engineering, and construction industries. It has been the pioneer of construction 3D printing. it just completed the world’s first 3D-printed laboratory and the building was the world’s first 3D-printed building entirely on site. Yahoo ceased operations in China on Monday. That follows announcements by Microsoft’s LinkedIn and Epic Games that they would shut down in China by mid-November. The companies saw the new personal information protection law as the last straw. Samuel Adams, from my Boston roots, is introducing a limited-edition IPA made with 66 pounds of hops that went into space in September on the first-ever all-civilian space mission. Naturally, it is called Space Craft (as in craft brewing), and will be available beginning 11/16 in select markets and online. The beer reportedly has elements of grapefruit, passion fruit, and guava. Tesla stock, has declined nearly 31% from its peak, but a few analysts think it may go lower. On Wednesday, Airbnb reported its Q4 of FY12/21 earnings and they were much higher than expected. I watched a story about how there is now a service similar to Airbnb, but for RVs, for people who would like to travel in an RV. Meta Platforms is continuing to grow its user base. This is supposed to be the next Facebook. The pandemic and contactless commerce has made us all much more familiar with QR codes. However, experts want you to know that QR codes can make consumers susceptible to “quishing” or phishing. Cybercriminals seem to be banking on human behavior that’s developed into blindly clicking or scanning anything. It is another example that questions society’s overall digital literacy. 


US News:


The lack of workers in key industries, post the height of the COVID-19 pandemic is still a major topic for economists and business owners. The pandemic has seemed to change attitudes and priorities around work, and there are signs that many have moved on to an alternate economy. There were definitely certain jobs in certain industries, particularly restaurant and food service, in which the government subsidies and unemployment benefits outweighed the wages many people were receiving when working, so they changed their paths and never came back to the restaurants when they reopened. We see it in abundance here in Florida. And, of course, it has affected the supply chain, the food and liquor distributors to those restaurants, and the factories and farmers that produce those products for the distributors. Speaking about things that have been changed by the pandemic, many school districts are still trying to sort it out, when and how things could return back to ‘normal’ for kids.  The plan put forth by the US Department of Education to help schools manage the impact of lost instructional time seems to have eliminated an important part of the school day, recess.  

Billionaire ex-Walmart executive, Marc Lore, says the first 50,000 “settlers” of his planned $400 billion city “Telosa” will likely be selected through applications and they could move in by 2030. His futuristic utopia will be built on the concept of “equitism” a combination of equality and capitalism. Telosa gets its name from an Ancient Greek word meaning “higher purpose”. Residents reportedly will get around in autonomous vehicles and the city will run on renewable energy. Settlers will be able to build their own homes and sell them, but the city will maintain ownership of the land. The first phase will cost $25 billion, which is expected to be funded by investors and philanthropists, with help from government grants and subsidies. The location has yet to be chosen, several possibilities have been mentioned: Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Arizona, Texas, and the Appalachian region. In July, Lore, like other fellow tech billionaires, and former Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez teamed up to buy the NBA’s Minnesota Timberwolves and the WNBA’s Minnesota Lynx. Nestle said that it will keep raising prices, as costs increase. 



International News:


The horrifying news out of Haiti is that gangs have been kidnapping people, tourists, health workers, and even missionaries for ransom. They are also seizing goods, including food and medical supplies, and selling them back to the intended recipients.  Ted Cruz has blasted Australia’s COVID-19 rules and a top Australian official has ripped back at him. Deadly floods and landslides have swept away many homes in southern India. Thousands of people have been evacuated to relief camps and dozens have been killed. The rainfall was especially heavy this October. Well, the US military and intelligence community was served another wake-up call, as China launched a hypersonic vessel. China says it was a reusable vessel, while the Pentagon believes that it may have been a missile. China has been in the news lately regarding its continued purchases by Chinese companies (with backing from the government) of shipping ports all over the world, particularly South America and Greece. It seems to be giving China control over at least Europe’s supply chain, and is beginning to concern some European nations. Mexico is reportedly moving to seize American assets. The Ukraine crisis continues, as NATO is now considering new battlegroups in eastern Europe, as Russia appears not be de-escalating. 

  
Florida:


I’m just catching up and redoing sections. There will be more Florida info in the next Repo Commentary.

 
Jokes and Such:

A praying mantis orders his 3rd beer at a bar and the bartender says, “hey Charlie, it’s almost 5pm, don’t you think you should be getting home to your wife?” the praying mantis says, “ah, she’s just going to bite my head off anyway.”

Repo Commentary-09/10/21

On 9/11/2001, a series of 4 coordinated terrorist attacks by the militant Islamist terrorist group, al-Qaeda, were committed against the United States of America. They hijacked 4 commercial airliners full of passengers with the goal of crashing each plane into a prominent American building, causing mass casualties and partial or complete destruction of those buildings. The first plane, American Airlines Flight 11, hit its intended target, World Trade Center North Tower at 8:46am. Seventeen minutes later, at 9:03am, United Airlines Flight 175 hit World Trade Center South Tower. Both 110-story towers collapsed within one hour and forty-two minutes, leading to the collapse of other World Trade Center buildings around them, including 7 World Trade Center.  The third flight, American Airlines Flight 77, flown from Dulles, was hijacked over Ohio and it crashed into the West side of the Pentagon at 9:37am in Arlington, VA, causing a partial collapse of that side of the building. The fourth flight, United Airlines Flight 93, was flown in the direction of Washington, DC to hit either the White House or the Capitol, but failed to make it, as brave passengers overwhelmed the terrorists and it crashed in a field near Shanksville, PA at 10:03am. The attacks resulted in the deaths of 2,977 people (not including the 19 terrorists), over 25,000 injuries, and substantial long-term health consequences, particularly for first responders, which are still manifesting today from the asbestos and other materials of the destroyed buildings. More than 1,100 victims have never been identified, although NYC continues to search for DNA matches. Of those killed in 9/11, 340 firefighters and 72 law enforcement officers were killed, the deadliest incident to those professions in the history of the United States. In addition, there was at least $10 billion in damage, a major global recession, and many countries strengthening their anti-terrorism efforts.

Allow me to express my feelings briefly here, as we commemorate the 20th anniversary of 9/11, the terrorist attacks on the United States of America. This catastrophic event touches me personally and deeply to this day. I lost scores of clients, colleagues, friends, and 6 golf partners at the World Trade Center in NYC. I was on the phone with my Repo Desk personnel at our newly merged partner, Dean Witter, when the first plane struck and my phone line went dead.  I watched on the TV one foot in front of my face, Live, as the second plane hit the other tower. The market was in chaos, our building was chaos, as most of our employees were evacuated. I stayed behind with 3 volunteers to make sure Morgan Stanley was financed for the day.  I happened to live at the time in Olympic Tower on 51st/Fifth, right above St. Patrick’s Cathedral from which I heard the bagpipes play “Amazing Grace” every day for months for each of the brave first responders lost in the disaster. I also could look down Fifth Avenue and see the smoke for weeks coming from the rubble that was the World Trade Center. At the time, I also headed the North America Repo Desk for Morgan Stanley and, along with volunteers walked to our midtown location to make sure that the firm’s securities were financed. Not only did I have the fortune to attend the Concert for NYC with some of the greatest musicians in the world to raise money for the 9/11 Relief Fund, but I actually had been at the reunion of Jackson 5 and many other artists the night before on 9/10. I left Morgan Stanley in 2004 to join Cantor Fitzgerald to help rebuild their Repo Desk and make it into a global Primary Dealer, walking in the footsteps and in honor of my friends lost in 9/11. Cantor was the worst hit of any firm in 9/11, with 658 lives lost, 80% of their US workforce (and 76 more from Eurobrokers, when they merged). I used to be one of the Cantor folks who read the names of the fallen at the annual 9/11 memorial in Central Park. I also was honored to sing the National Anthem and “God Bless America” for the 5th Anniversary of 9/11 for the NY Mets and the Florida Marlins. I definitely will never forget and I pray that we never forget the many fallen, the broken lives of families, and the loss of brave first responders and fine civilians. In less than a terrible two hours in NYC and the Pentagon and a field in Pennsylvania, Americans lost our innocence forever.

I have designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo.

I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry. Although I have completed several projects (below) and am looking to lend my 39 years of expertise to firms via consulting or via full-time positions.

  • I have completed writing/recording/presenting the above Pierpoint Finance Academy course on Repo Fundamentals. Our new normal of e-Learning.
  • I am sharing my opinion and expertise with the industry in articles in various periodicals. I just shared thoughts for an article with Bloomberg.
  • I am consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.
  • I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums. In fact, I just gave a tutorial 8/26/21 for PAC members on the latest happenings with the Federal Reserve and the Debt Ceiling and the impacts to the Repo market. It was recorded and members should access the recording to hear my thoughts and discussion with Roy Zimmerhansl. We are discussing making this a more regular kind of Repo Bulletin and maybe make it open to members and non-members.

So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, call my mobile (646-753-1300), email (jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or hit me up on LinkedIn.  

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former firms and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better!

Holidays or Events (09/10):

  • It’s the 20th Anniversary of 9/11 tomorrow
  • Blame It on the Large Hadron Collider Day
  • International Creepy Boston Dynamics Robotic Horse Day
  • International Make-Up Day
  • National 401(K) Day
  • National Hot Dog Day
  • National Swap Ideas Day
  • Sew Be It Day
  • Stand up to Cancer Day
  • TV Dinner Day
  • World Suicide Prevention Day
  • Amerindian Heritage Day (Guyana)
  • Children’s Day (Honduras)
  • Gibraltar National Day
  • Saint George’s Caye Day (Belize)
  • Teachers’ Day (China)

Some Famous People Born on (09/10):

  • 1929-Arnold Palmer, American golfer
  • 1933-Karl Lagerfeld, German-French designer and photographer
  • 1934-Charles Kuralt-American journalist
  • 1934-Roger Maris-American baseball player and coach
  • 1947-Larry Nelson-American golfer
  • 1948-Bob Lanier-American basketball player and coach
  • 1949-Bill O’Reilly-American journalist and author
  • 1953-Amy Irving-American actress
  • 1960-Colin Firth-English actor and producer
  • 1963-Randy Johnson-American baseball player and actor
  • 1968-Guy Ritchie-English director, producer, and screenwriter
  • 1972-James Duvall-American actor and producer
  • 1974-Ryan Phillippe-American actor and producer
  • 1983-Joey Votto-Canadian baseball player

Daily Weird Facts:

Grateful  airline passengers stranded in Gander, Newfoundland on 9/11/01 started a scholarship fund for local students that now totals around $1.5 million.

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

“The aim of life is to live, and to live means to be aware, joyously, drunkenly, serenely, divinely aware.”—Henry Miller

Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

$68.03/barrel on 08/13

$68.06/barrel on 09/09

There has been a lot of news about oil prices crashing, and they did fall below $70/barrel, but they have stopped falling.  So did high gasoline prices in the US. The price of gasoline at my West Palm Beach station had fallen to $2.87/gallon, but now have stuck there. Experts believe gasoline prices are being disrupted by Hurricane Ida’s devastating impact on Louisiana and pipelines and shipments from there to the Southeast. Also, a nationwide resurgence in COVID-19 cases and deaths has suddenly halted the exodus of travelers. China has just made an unprecedented intervention in the global oil market, releasing crude oil from its strategic reserve for the first time, with the specific goal of lowering oil prices. It may be an unprecedented intervention by China in that market, but China has intervened in other markets regularly.

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates). I did decide to trim this running list to just a few dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

109.59 on 08/13/21

109.92 on 09/10/21

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

08/13/21 at $1.1797

09/10/21 at $1.1820

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

08/13/21 at $1.3866

09/10/21 at $1.385

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

1.2515 on 08/13/21

1.2644 on 09/10/21

With data showing reemerging inflation and the Fed’s concern about inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation may become a popular topic again soon. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

08/13/21 $1,781.50

09/09/21 $1,797.20

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!

$46,574.40 on 09/09/21

After rebounding in 2019 dramatically since the beginning of the year, although certainly not to its $19,000 high, Bitcoin hit a wall at the beginning of the Summer of 2019, then rallied during the Summer, and tumbled again in Q4, and had rallied in early in 2020.  It then gave up all of those 2020 gains with the COVID-19 contagion. On 3/13/20, it had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It made almost exactly a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels recently, wiping out all 2021 gains. All of a sudden, it is climbing higher again. Quite a whipsaw, not for the faint of heart. The SEC has just signaled it is willing to take a hard line approach towards cryptoasset regulation and what Chair Gary Gensler has called the “Wild West of finance”, by threatening to sue Coinbase over a plan to offer accounts that pay interest on cryptoasset holdings. This has also intensified the debate about the SEC’s jurisdiction over cryptoassets. The Governor of Sweden’s central bank compared buying and selling Bitcoin to trading stamps, questioning the staying power of currencies without government backing. The SEC has delayed its decision on the application by VanEck for launching a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund for an additional 60 days until November 14th.  Mastercard has reportedly agreed to acquire CipherTrace, a firm that provides anti-money laundering services in the cryptocurrency sector. The Solana cryptocurrency has gained 32% in a week to achieve a market cap of about $55 billion, bringing it just short of the top 5 cryptocurrencies. Solana developers claim that it’s based on the world’s fastest blockchain.

Brexit:

Brexit is causing some pain, as Britain is no longer in top 10 for trade with Germany, according to Reuters. The Guardian reports that EU nationals in UK face losing out on jobs and housing. The Unionist leader says the Brexit deal could sink the Northern Ireland government. The EU has paused legal action against the UK over Northern Ireland Protocol, but it is the huge focus now of Brexit. There is now a farming labor shortage in Britain, due to both Brexit and the pandemic.  

Global Financial News:

With inflation soaring, the bad news is for retirees. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is moving to reverse Trump-era Community Reinvestment Act fair lending rules.  The proposal would return the framework to the 1995 standards. A decline in loan-loss provisions helped contribute to healthy profit for banks in Q2, but the FDIC says the average net interest margin has fallen 31bp to 2.5%, the lowest level on record. So, FDIC-insured banks have seen net income fall 8% in Q2 compared with Q1. $9.5 trillion asset manager, BlackRock’s, first Chinese mutual fund has raised $1 billion among 111,000 subscribers, despite the recent warning by George Soros that investing in China is a “tragic mistake”. A report from Allied Market Research forecasts worldwide growth for wealth-management industry to as much as $3.43 trillion by 2030, from $1.25 trillion in 2020. Researchers, according to Financial Advisor IQ, predict that the drivers will be alternative investments, such a private equity, hedge funds, REITs, and intellectual property. According to American Banker, Wells Fargo has developed an accounts receivables service that uses artificial intelligence, robotic processing and machine learning to improve processes for payment data capture and invoice matching. Citizens Financial Group will acquire boutique bank JPM for $149 million, its 4th acquisition this year following its purchases of HSBC’s east coast bank branches, Investors Bancorp, and valuation consulting firm Williamette Management Associates. Morningstar, to enable direct indexing, has agreed to acquire Moorgate Benchmarks. Now, Morningstar will be able to join BlackRock, Vanguard, Morgan Stanley and others in offering direct-indexing services. A PGIM survey shows 62% of advisors allocate clients’ assets to actively managed investments compared to 34% for passive strategies and 4% to cash. The Fed Beige Book noted a marginal slowdown of the economy, along with higher prices. Day-trading darling GameStop dropped after recording a Q2 loss that was worse than expected. However, some say that this stock is actually 90% psychology/momentum and only 10% about fundamentals and earnings. The Securities Lending industry has had its fill of the stock probably. Wells Fargo was fined $250 million over mortgage business failures by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, which said that it had engaged in “unsafe or unsound practices” with its loan modification program.  It also said that the bank was in violation of a 2018 consent order. Meanwhile, the bank’s shares actually rose after it acknowledged that a separate 2016 consent order from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has expired. The SEC may alter insider trading, as an advisory committee has recommended rule changes for insider trading and for disclosures from special-purpose acquisition companies (SPAC), to strengthen investor protection. The changes would require a period of at least 4 months after a company executive acquires stock before the person can trade it, with a goal of discouraging insider trading.  In other news, Hong Kong reportedly will limit investors’ access to SPACs. A US District judge has just issued a tentative ruling rejecting a lawsuit that seeks to immediately terminate LIBOR, which plaintiffs call an illegal price-fixing agreement. But, he also signaled that the litigation isn’t over. CFTC’s Dan Berkovitz announced that he will be leaving his post on 10/15, well before his 2023 term expiration. That will leave the 5-member CFTC with one Democrat and one Republican commissioner. Nasdaq has launched a Cloud-based data hub, Nasdaq Data Link hub, bringing together recent expansions in cloud computing and alternative data. According to the World Federation of Exchanges, an increased demand for options during the first half of 2021 let to listed derivatives trading to increase 36% to 29.2 billion contracts. Options trading was up 56% over H1 2020, while futures trading rose by 1/5 and single stock options and futures increased 69% and 83% respectively. EU banks are reportedly struggling to balance the minimum requirements for eligible liabilities requirements proposed by regulators (TLAC rules) and the needs of ESG investors in creating total loss-absorbing capacity-eligible green bonds.

US Market News:

At levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is now well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. We seem to set a new record every day, despite our economic picture improving at the same pace. However, on Wednesday, US equities retreated, as many investors listened to pundits warnings, reassessing stock valuations in light of global economic risks, as well as surging COVID-19 numbers and concurrent retreat of Central Banks from pandemic bailouts.

Here are the latest DJIA closes, just to demonstrate the massive volatility (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates).

09/08/21  35,031.07

08/13/21  35,515.38

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 record high

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58

12/26/18 at 2,467.70

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

08/13/21 at 4,468.00

09/09/21 at 4,493.28

S&P has regained everything it lost since 3/11 pandemic announcement, and more, breaking above the high set in early September 2020.  It set a record high today!

Nasdaq closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

08/13/21 at 14,822.90

09/08/21 at 15,286.64 new record high

The US Treasury market is focused not only on Inflation, but more importantly, the Debt Ceiling. In fact, I could write about the Debt Ceiling in almost every section of this Commentary, except maybe Sports and Entertainment. Treasury Secretary and former Fed Chair Yellen just warned Congress that the US could default on debt as early as October (about a month or two before experts have been predicting).

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28%

05/10/20 at 0.16%

07/24/20 at 0.14%

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%

09/09/21 at 0.23%

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21

09/09/21 at 0.43%

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38%

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 0.79%

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63%

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24%

07/14/21 at 1.11%

08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.08%

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65%

12/06/19 at 1.84%

02/06/20 at 1.65%

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02%

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37%

08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21

09/09/21 at 1.30%

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21

09/09/21 at 1.90%

Housing News:

Well, it’s finally over. Wall Street doesn’t really exist anymore in lower Manhattan. Through globalization, bankruptcies, mergers, and pandemic-forced remote work, Wall Street as the financial capital of the world is no longer a physical thing. It is a metaphorical notion now, as Deutsche Bank, the last of the large investment banks, has decided to move from their 60 Wall Street location to a new midtown Manhattan location. It’s the end of an era, ironically two decades after 9/11, when it was the financial hub. I don’t think the two things are related, just an odd coincidence. When I started in the industry in 1982, when you said you “worked on Wall Street” you actually physically were located somewhere near Wall Street.

Repo/Securities Financing News:                               

One thing that I missed and my friend Scott Skrym brings to my attention, in the fine print of the FOMC minutes, was mention for the first time in a long time of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). It should be thought of as a Reverse Repo from the perspective of the Federal Reserve: it will give out cash and take in collateral. This is similar in direction to the Discount Window and the O/N and Term RPs that the Fed has been doing with Primary Dealers. It is the OPPOSITE of the direction of the RRP program, in which the Fed takes cash from money funds and others and gives out collateral from its portfolio.  Basically, the SRF rate would be set at the top of the Fed Funds target range (currently that would be 0.25%), would be available at first only to the Primary Dealers, eventually extended to approved counterparties. There are some problems with the rate and the potential flood of collateral the Fed could receive on a daily basis, the opposite of the amount of cash the Fed is currently getting dumped on it on a daily basis. It also calls into question the term that the Fed has avoided in the 39 years that I’ve been in the industry, and that is to become “Lender of Last Resort”. I’m sure we will hear much more about this in the future from the Fed. If you want to hear my detailed musings on the Federal Reserve, cash in the money markets, what tools are at the Fed’s disposal (especially RRP and SRF), what I think it could do for interest rates, the debt ceiling impact, and latest developments in the Repo Market, please watch my one hour+ tutorial in Pierpoint Alpha Community with Roy Zimmerhansl.

Securities Lending Times reports that State Street is acquiring its Boston neighbor and former competitor, BBH Investor Services business, which includes its Securities Lending, custody, accounting, fund administration, global markets, and technology services for $3.5 billion. DTCC’s FICC CCP has launched sponsored GC service, executed by Federated Hermes, BNY Mellon, and JP Morgan Securities, enabling the centrally cleared repo transactions to settle on BNY Mellon’s triparty repo system. You are used to me trumpeting the benefits of peer-to-peer financing for years, but Securities Lending Times has a feature article about peer-to-peer securities lending. Are hedge funds who are short now able to borrow directly from beneficial owners of those securities and bypass the broker/dealers?

If you haven’t already, you must read this eye-opening article Mary Fricker posted on 8/22/21 on her Repowatch.org website entitled, “Yep, the 2020s feel like the 1920s”. The contrasts and comparisons between those two years and others, particularly 1907 and 2007, are thought-provoking. There are so many curious coincidences that the Federal Reserve did a study on the parallels between 1907 and 2007 in their own 2014 paper, the history of the panic of 1907.

Federal Reserve News:

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 0.00-0.25% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks. 

The next FOMC meetings are:  09/22/21, 11/03/21, and 12/15/21. All of the meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we are in.

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight. Note that the Fed has the nomenclature backwards, it is actually Repoing securities out of the Reverse Repo Program and taking cash IN from its perspective. As if Repo nomenclature, bid and offer, and acronyms weren’t hard enough for everybody. Since its inception in 2014, the balances in RRP have AVERAGED about $30-50 billion. Because of major dislocations of liquidity on the cash side of the Money Markets, lately the RRP balances have been setting daily records, over $1 trillion. The Money Markets have enormous amounts of cash sloshing around, unable to find Repo (collateral) at broker/dealers to invest in, and unable to find short-term US Treasury bills to buy. So, they have invested with the Federal Reserve. If Repo collateral actually becomes even less available, because there is further delay on raising the Debt Ceiling by Congress (US Treasury is estimated to run out of room/money sometime in November or December 2021), unless the Fed begins Tapering their QE monthly purchases of $80 billion US Treasuries and $40 billion Agency MBS. Of course, those two actions have many other consequences elsewhere. The latter would likely raise interest rates, counter to current Monetary Policy, and the former would bring back the question of the credit quality of the US Government and change the prices of those outright securities, further raising interest rates and making the payment of interest on outstanding US debt more expensive.

At the 7/28 FOMC meeting, the Fed focused on progress on vaccinations and indicators of economic growth and employment continuing to strengthen. But, it said the sectors most effected by the pandemic have shown improvement but haven’t fully recovered. The Fed specifically linked the path of the economy to the path of the virus.  It cited that risks to the economic outlook remain. Pointing at its mandate for maximum employment and controlled inflation at about 2%, the Fed said that it would continue to maintain an accommodative stance on monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. It kept the target Fed Funds rate at 0.00-0.25%.

The FOMC also issued an additional statement regarding “Repurchase Agreement Arrangements”. It announced the establishment of a domestic Standing Repo Facility (SRF) (which I discussed above) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). This latter facility was new to me. Both facilities are intended to be backstops to the money market. So, we received more detailed information at this FOMC: the SRF will have daily O/N repo operations against US Treasuries, Agency Debentures, and Agency MBS pools, with a maximum total size of $500 billion. The minimum bid rate for repos under the facility will be the top end of the Fed Funds range, currently 0.25%, which is currently ABOVE the general level of O/N Repo Rates.  Again, let’s make sure we understand the backward nomenclature. Although the Fed is referring to this facility as Repo, they are actually taking IN Collateral and putting OUT cash (which you and I know is the definition of a Reverse Repo from our or the Fed’s perspective). The initial counterparties will be their 22 Primary Dealers, which we knew, and be expanded to other ‘depository institutions.’ Hmmm, I think that just means banks and credit unions, and could still not give access to other needy collateral providers like asset managers, hedge funds, REITs, insurance companies, municipalities, pension funds, etc. Hopefully, I am wrong about that. The FIMA repo facility will actually operate a little easier, as the Fed will enter into O/N reverse repos as needed with foreign official institutions against their holding of US Treasuries already maintained in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, mostly in the SOMA accounts. That rate will also be 0.25% now and the per counterparty limit will be $60 billion. This facility could be key for these institutions to receive US dollar funding, when propping up their own currencies, rather than selling their US Treasuries outright.

So, just reviewing only these 2 tools in the ever-expanding toolbox of the Federal Reserve (in addition to the 5 tools/programs from the Financial Crisis, which are dormant), it will potentially look like this:

SRF/FIMA facility=Collateral in to Fed and Cash out to broker/dealers, banks, international monetary authorities, depository institutions

RRP=Cash in to Fed and Collateral out to broker/dealers, depository institutions, money funds, GSEs

On a Broker/Dealer Balance Sheet, that looks just like a Repo Matched Book:

Reverse Repo=Collateral into B/D and Cash out

Repo=Cash into B/D and Collateral out

The differences are that the size of the Fed’s matched programs are likely going to be much larger than any B/D Repo Matched Book (since at least 2007), the B/D does not get to set the Bid rate at 0.25% and Offer rate at 0.05% for a 20bp bid/offer spread/return, the B/D is likely making Repo markets to a more expanded group of sectors of clients, and the B/D is now operating under dozens of strict regulations.

The Fed’s Williams just suggested that QE Tapering could start by year-end 2021. A research paper prepared by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly and others argues that inequities of employment, education and earnings across US ethnic groups “add up to a smaller economic pie for the nation as a whole,” with an estimated cost to the US of up to $51 trillion since 1990. The paper hypothesizes what would have happened if such inequities were erased and less favored ethnic groups had been able to make a full contribution to the workforce and GDP. Fed President of Dallas and Fed President of Boston have both decided to sell their individual stock holdings and place their investments in passive products to avoid the appearance of conflict of interest.

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. Activity seems to be picking up, especially on both sides of the Pacific Rim:

09/10 4.7 ESE of Hualien City, Taiwan

09/10 5.1 West Chile Rise

09/10 4.6 SE of Calana, Peru

09/09 4.7 ESE of Katsuren-haebaru, Japan

09/09 5.0 NE of Anse-Bertrand, Guadeloupe

09/09 4.7 S of the Fiji Islands

09/09 4.5 NE of Hotan, China

09/09 4.5 SE of Jurm, Afghanistan

09/09 4.5 ENE of Levuka, Fiji

09/09 5.1 S of False Pass, Alaska

09/09 4.7 WSW of Puerto Santa, Peru

09/09 4.5 N of Yigo Village, Guam

09/09 4.6 West Chile Rise

Weather:

Per the National Interagency Fire Center, currently 78 large fires or complexes have burned more than 1.9 million acres in 10 States (Idaho, Montana, Washington, California, Oregon, Wyoming, Nevada, Minnesota, Colorado, and Utah).  Northern California continues to burn most actively, with the Caldor, Dixie, Monument, River Complex, and McCash consuming thousands of acres.  26 Type 1 and Type 2 incident management teams and more than 23,000 wildland firefighters and support personnel have been assigned to incidents. The Dixie Fire and Caldor Fire have scorched a gigantic area, destroyed homes and even entire towns, and has even leapt over the Sierra Nevada mountains to start burning on the down slope. Wildfire in Oregon has claimed the historic Bull of the Woods fire lookout. As the Caldor Fire has slowed, 3 new wildfires have ignited in California. Despite media reports, official records of NIFC show that 2021 has yet to set a record for the most fires or the most acres burned. It is worse than last year already, but nowhere near 2011, 2012, and 2015. Here is something interesting, researchers say that water droplets are more abundant in clouds affected by wildfire smoke but, surprisingly, those clouds are less likely to produce rain to help put out fires and may contribute to the drought conditions in the West.  So, the smoke actually may prevent the clouds from putting out the wildfires?

As for weather in the nation, a cold front is pushing south from Canada into the central Plains and Great Lakes, driving below average temperatures throughout that area. Well above normal (dangerous) temperatures will continue across the West.  Isolated thunderstorms are expected in Oregon and Washington. The Northeast will begin to cool down significantly. Florida will remain hot and humid, with Heat Indices in the 100-110 degree range. Beach water temperature is currently 84-88 degrees, very high, and fuel for hurricanes.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  According to CNN, one thing about 2020 that people didn’t notice during the pandemic is that hurricane forecasts improved. Focus is now on size and speed of the approaching storm and the critical “cone of uncertainty”, which affects a certain population. 2021 was expected by the NOAA to be an Active hurricane season. They expected a likely range of 13-20 named storms (winds of 39mph or higher). They expected 6-10 of them to be Hurricanes, and of that 3-5 reaching Category 3 or stronger.  NOAA revised those numbers slightly higher. Now they predict 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, of which still 3-5 reaching Category 3 or stronger. Hurricane Ida, swiftly went from a Category 1 storm to a Category 4 Hurricane when it made landfall in Louisiana, picking up strength from the very warm Gulf of Mexico.  Although is had sustained winds of 130-156 mph at landfall, and caused a lot of damage, the real problem became the torrential rain and instant flooding, as it cut a swath across many states as it headed to the Northeast.  President Biden has now toured damage caused by Hurricane Ida in Louisiana, New Jersey, and New York. He actually got a hostile reception in NJ. Flooding killed at least 50 people in the Northeast. About 14,000 people were displaced when Hurricane Ida battered one Louisiana parish, destroying about 75% of the structures there, and cut off an entire barrier island. Hundreds of thousands of people are still without power in Louisiana. 

The next focus is on fierce Hurricane Larry which is churning across the Atlantic Ocean. Some experts believe it could be even stronger than Ida and could cause life-threatening surf. Maximum sustained winds are already 125mph. Currently, the models forecast for Larry to miss the East Coast of North America, but it may hit Bermuda.

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. In the Eastern North Pacific. A new Tropical Depression has formed offshore of Southwestern Mexico and is expected to become a Tropical Storm.

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has just proclaimed “a code red for humanity.” This is the unequivocal consensus of the world’s top climate scientists, per Bloomberg, who revealed in a report Monday that, not only are humans responsible for the catastrophes befalling the atmosphere, the oceans, the ice packs, and the forests, but that without drastic moves by the planet’s leaders to eliminate greenhouse gas pollution, things are going get a lot worse soon. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the crucial warming threshold of 2 degrees Centigrade will be exceeded during the 21st Century. In addition, the report says that the past decade was most likely hotter than any period in the last 125,000 years, and combustion and deforestation have raised CO2 in the atmosphere higher than it’s been in two million years.

Sports News:       

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

For 2021, MLB is heading towards the Playoffs, with teams jockeying for first place in their Division or for one of the two Wild Card spots for each League.  i

Current standings (09/07), after about 136-140 games (about 22 games to play):

AL EAST the Rays have been winning at a remarkable rate and have held off the Yankees and my Red Sox. The Red Sox bullpen has not helped, blowing a 7-1 lead over the Rays and ultimately losing 11-10 in the 10th inning, on Monday, then allowing 12 runs to the Rays on Tuesday.  The Yankees, after a 13-game winning streak, have fallen on hard times, losing 7 of 10 games, and are only ½ game ahead of the Red Sox for the first and second Wild Card spots. I’m actually going to a Yankees @ Red Sox game on 9/23, when I am up in Boston. Which has now brought the red-hot Blue Jays into the equation, now 2 games behind the Yankees, with the Mariners 3 games back, and the A’s 3.5 games back.  Unfortunately, at this point, I have to root for the Red Sox vs the Yankees in a brutal one-game Wild Card playoff, as the Rays seem too far ahead.

Tampa Bay

NY Yankees

Boston

Toronto

Baltimore

AL CENTRAL this began as the runaway division for the White Sox, who never let up. They still enjoy a 10 game lead over the Indians, so have started limiting their starters’ pitching. 

Chicago WS

Cleveland

Detroit

Kansas City

Minnesota

AL WEST the Astros have continued to hold the lead for the Division, and the Mariners just leapfrogged over the suddenly struggling A’s. That also puts the Mariners now as the team chasing the Yankees and Red Sox for those 2 Wild Card spots.

Houston

Seattle

Oakland
LA Angels

Texas

NL EAST this division continues to underperform, which leaves three teams still in the running.  The Phillies relinquished their lead to the Braves and trail the Braves now by 2.5 games (as of 9/8). The Mets trail the Braves by 4 games. The Nationals, who threw in the towel at the trade deadline, have now been leapfrogged by the lowly Marlins. It wasn’t long ago that the Nats beat the Astros in the World Series (2019)…

Atlanta

Philadelphia

NY Mets

Miami

Washington

NL CENTRAL The Brewers are holding on to first place by 11 games over the Reds, who just lost 7 of their last 10, while the Cards are 13 ½ games behind, and the Cubs became sellers at the trade deadline and begin their rebuilding. The Pirates are 34.5 games back of the Brewers. The Reds are tied with the Padres for the Wild Card first spot and second spot. The Phillies are 2 games behind and the Mets and Cardinals are both 3.5 games behind. So, this Wild Card race is also made up of 5 teams, like the AL Wild Card race. Although I see MLB’s intention to please the fans by making more teams involved in the Playoffs, I still don’t like the one-game do-or-die game between the two Wild Card teams (and don’t get me started on the Little League-like putting a runner on 2nd base in extra innings new rule!).

Milwaukee

Cincinnati

St. Louis

Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh

NL WEST the World Champion Dodgers looked like they would run away with the division, but the Giants said ‘hold my beer’. Plenty of analysts said that the Giants were not good enough to hold first place, but they have held first place and are 1 game ahead of the Dodgers. Led by teams with the two best records in MLB, this high-flying division has put the Diamondbacks in the rearview mirror, behind first place by 44 games.

San Francisco

LA Dodgers

San Diego

Colorado

Arizona

Golf:

The PGA Tour 2020-2021 season was an expanded one, due to COVID-19 related cancellations and postponements, mostly in 202. Although most touring pros play between 20 and 30 tournaments in the season, the actual season was comprised of an expanded 50 official PGA events. The 14th event was a stunning sight, with DeChambeau and Cantlay dueling in a 6-hole playoff at the BMW Championship, with Cantlay winning. This was the 2nd tournament of the 3 tournament finale to the season, leading up to the Tour Championship final, held this year at EastLake in Sea Island, GA. Once again, I have to say (just as I said about MLB’s new rule for extra innings advantage), I don’t like the spotting golfers extra shots in the Final. Because Cantlay beat DeChambeau, he was able to start the Tour Championship at -10 and DeChambeau at -7. The top 30 golfers from the first two tournaments were eligible to play in the Tour Championship. I use the word ‘eligible’ because, No.30 was barely able to play, after recovering from severe symptoms from COVID-19, including double pneumonia, and Koepka hurt himself during the tournament and had to withdraw, pushing him down to No.30. It still earned him over $395,000, as this is the most lucrative (by far) golf tournament in the world. Anyway, back to the action, another exciting tournament, which came down to the wire, this time with Hahm and Cantlay battling it out. Each putt was worth $millions and the tension was very high. In the end, the 18th hole, Hahm missed his longer putt and Cantlay made his, to make Cantlay the 2021 PGA FedEx Champion. Cantlay received a check for $15 million for winning and Hahm received a check for  a measly $5 million (still way more than any winner of any tournament during the season). In theory, Hahm’s putt (and a few on holes before the 18th) was worth $10 million! That’s a serious kneeknocker!!! Only a short time ago, $15 million was a great PGA Tour player’s career!  Golf is not over yet, however, as we have the Fortinet Championship at Silverado Resort and Spa North in Napa, CA. we still have the very-hyped Ryders Cup competition between the US and Europe, to be battled out in Match-Play format on one of my favorite courses that I’ve played, Whistling Straits in Sheboygan, WI (I thought it was actually in Kohler, and there are actually 3 courses there).

NFL:

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. Preseason games begin next week. Despite surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths all over the country, the NFL is sticking with their plans to fill their stadiums with fans. The 2021 NFL season began last night with the Superbowl Champion Bucs playing the Cowboys. The Bucs beat the Cowboys in a sloppy, penalty-filled, defense-devoid game that had a seesaw score.  Eventually, the Bucs nipped the Cowboy 31-29, despite being favored by 10 points.  Cowboy’s kicker, Zuerlein, missed a point after and two field goals. Bucs QB Tom Brady released the football on his passes in an average 0.33 seconds!  That’s why he rarely gets hit or pressured. For those Washington Football Team fans, apparently the options for the new name are: Defenders, Commanders, Presidents, Armada, Redhawks, Brigade, and just leaving it as is.

Tennis

The 2021 tennis season is now in full swing. However, for various reasons, Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Serena have dropped out of matches in July and August, implying that the 4 already all-time greats will not play a match at the big Canada or Cincinnati tournaments, which leaves their US Open prospects in question. Now, regarding Djokovic, he has won all 3 of the Slams this year, a feat not done in a single year since Rod Laver in 1969. Also, after winning Wimbledon, he then played at the Olympics, so he wouldn’t be going into the US Open cold. Federer is 40 and while he did come back this year, his record has been 9-4, and he has been questioning (out loud) how much more he will play. Nadal has a nagging foot injury and 39-year-old Serena has an ankle injury from Wimbledon. Let’s not forget Osaka either, who not only withdrew from Wimbledon, but has also already withdrawn from Montreal.  She was ousted at the US Open and announced that she will now take some time off from tennis and work on her mental health. In the end, this weekend’s Women’s Finals at the US Open will feature two relatively unknown and unranked players, Emma Readucanu, 18, and Leyla Fernandez, 19. On the Men’s side, No.1 Djokovic beat No.6 seed Berrettini in the quarter-finals, while No.4 Zverev won his quarterfinals match against Harris. On Tuesday, No.2 Medvedev beat his opponent in his quarterfinals and No.12 Auger-Aliassime won his match.

NCAA Basketball

The 2020-2021 season began in November. The 2021 NCAA tournament, March Madness, yielded the national champion, undefeated Gonzaga.

NHL:

The puck dropped on the asterisk season (last season) on 10/2/19. The puck dropped (again) to conclude the same season on 8/1/20. The teams played in the modified playoffs in two bubble arenas in Toronto and Edmonton, without fans. The Stanley Cup was won by the Tampa Bay Lightning (who ousted my Bruins, due to the Presidents Cup curse) over the Dallas Stars, 4 games to 2. The Finals were held in the Edmonton bubble, without fans.

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic.

It was an exciting Playoffs, despite the odd configuration of the Divisions to be less traveling for the players and more COVID-19 aware. The Cinderella team this year, but perennial Stanley Cup winners in the old days, the Montreal Canadiens, ran into a rough Tampa Bay Lightning team and a goalie who was on fire. They wound up losing in 5 games, 4-1, to the Lightning, who repeated their Stanley Cup victory from last year.

The Penguins will be without their star, captain Sidney Crosby, for the start of the season, as he just underwent wrist surgery. The Florida Panthers offered endorsement deals Wednesday to every female college athlete at nearby FAU. Patrice Bergeron said he does not plan to make a decision about re-signing with the Boston Bruins until after this season. The US Hockey Hall of Fame Class for 2021 was just announced and Holmgren, McNab, and Fischler are going to be inducted, along with the 2020 class, who were not inducted last year because of the pandemic. David Backes officially retired, after signing a one-day contract with the Blues. He had been selected by the Blues in the 2003 NHL Draft and played 10 seasons there.

NBA:

The NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The Suns were a last place team only a few seasons ago. Two-time NBA champion JR Smith is heading to college, with his eyes set on playing golf professionally. NBA All-Star Andre Drummond saves his 2-year-old son who fell into a swimming pool. The Celtics and Dennis Schroder agree on 1year/$5.9 million deal.  He had turned down a lucrative extension a year ago from the Lakers. 2021 MGM Resorts Summer League is continuing. LiAngelo Ball is playing in the League with hopes to get back in the NBA.  The NBA Hall of Fame is ready for its induction of: undrafted Ben Wallace, Chris Bosh, Chris Webber, Bill Russell as coach, and Paul Pearce.

Auto Racing:

In the NASCAR Cup Series of 2020, Chase Elliott won. The 2021 regular season began with the Daytona 500 on 2/14/21. NASCAR and iRacing announced an official partnership. Gordon said he is retiring from Penske at end of 2021. Six teams were fined after Pocono race. Here is the 2021 schedule and winners:

02/09/21 Busch Clash at Daytona-Kyle Busch

02/11/21 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona-Aric Almirola

02/11/21 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona-Austin Dillon

02/14/21 DAYTONA 500-Michael McDowell

02/21/21 O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 at Daytona-Christopher Bell

02/28/21 DIXIE VODKA 400 at Homestead-Miami-William Byron

03/07/21 Pennzoil 400 by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas-Kyle Larson

03/14/21 NASCAR Cup Series Race at Phoenix-Martin Truex Jr.

03/21/21 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta-Ryan Blaney

03/29/21 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol-Joey Logano

04/10/21 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville, VA-Martin Truex Jr.

04/18/21 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway-Bowman

04/25/21 GEICO 500-Talladega-Keselowski

05/02/21 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas-Kyle Busch

05/09/21 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington-Martin Truex Jr.

05/16/21 NASCAR Cup Series at Dover, Drydene 400-Alex Bowman

05/23/21 NASCAR Cup Series at COTA, EchoPark Texas GP-Chase Elliott

05/30/21 Coca-Cola 600, Charlotte Motor Speedway-Kyle Larson

06/06/21 Toyota Save Mart 350, Sonoma Raceway-Kyle Larson

06/13/21 NASCAR All-Star Open, Texas Motor Speedway-Aric Almirola

06/13/21 NASCAR All-Star Race, Texas Motor Speedway-Kyle Larson

06/20/21 Ally 400, Nashville Superspeedway-Kyle Larson

06/26/21 Pocono Organics CBD 325-Alex Bowman

06/27/21 Explore the Pocono Mountains 350-Kyle Busch

07/04/21 Jockey Made in America 250 by Kwik Trip-Chase Elliott

07/11/21 Quaker State 400 by Walmart-Kurt Busch

07/18/21 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301-Aric Almirola

08/08/21 Go Bowling at The Glen-Kyle Larson

08/15/21 Big Machine Vodka 400 at the Brickyard-Allmendinger

08/22/21 Firekeepers Casino 400 at Michigan-Blaney

08/28/21 Coke Zero 400 at Daytona-Blaney

09/05/21 Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington-Hamlin

Formula One began 2020 with F1 Car Launch Dates for the various teams from 2/12 through 2/15 for Renault, Racing Point, McLaren, and Ferrari.  That was followed by the Pre-Season Testing schedule.  The opening of the season coincided with the COVID-19 lockdown. Lewis Hamilton won his 7th World Title.  F1 will revert to 2pm start times in 2021. Matteo Pagliani was crowned inaugural F1 Mobile Racing Esports Champion. There will be a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. Here is the 2021 schedule and here are the winners:

03/28/21-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix-Lewis Hamilton edged Max Verstappen

04/18/21-Italy-Verstappen edged Hamilton

05/02/21-Portugal-Hamilton beat Verstappen

05/09/21-Spain-Hamilton beat Verstappen

05/23/21-Monaco-Verstappen

06/06/21-Azerbaijan-Perez

06/20/21-France-Verstappen

06/27/21-Austria-Verstappen

07/04/21-Austria-Verstappen

07/18/21-Great Britain-Hamilton

08/01/21-Hungary-Ocon

08/29/21-Belgium-Verstappen

09/05/21-Netherlands-Verstappen

09/12/21-Italy-

09/26/21-Russia-

10/03/21-Singapore-

10/10/21-Japan-

10/24/21-United States

10/31/21-Mexico-

11/07/21-Brazil-

11/21/21-Australia-

12/05/21-Saudi Arabia-

12/12/21-Abu Dhabi-

IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  In 2019, Josef Newgarden came in 8th in the last race, to just edge out Simon Pagenaud for the championship. Scott Dixon was the Championship winner for 2020, edging out defending champion, Josef Newgarden. The 2021 season does not begin until mid-April. Here is the schedule and the winners:

04/18/21-Birmingham Barber Motorsports Park-Alex Palou

04/25/21-St. Petersburg Street Course-Colton Herta

05/01/21-Texas Motor Speedway Grand Prix of Texas Race 1-Scott Dixon

05/02/21-Texas Motor Speedway Grand Prix of Texas Race 2-Pato O’Ward

05/15/21-Indianapolis Motor Speedway-GP 1-Rinus Veekay

05/30/21-Indy 500-Helio Castronoves

06/12/21-Detroit Raceway on Belle Isle Race 1-Marcus Ericsson

06/13/21-Detroit Raceway on Belle Isle Race 2-Pato O’Ward

06/20/21-Road America-Alex Palou

07/04/21-Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course-Josef Newgarden

07/11/21-Toronto Exhibition Place-cancelled

08/08/21-Nashville Street Course-Marcus Ericsson

08/14/21-Indianapolis GP 2-Pato O’Ward

08/21/21-Gateway Motorsports Park-Josef Newgarden

09/12/21-Portland International Raceway

09/19/21-Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca

09/26/21-Streets of Long Beach

Travel News:

Bill Gates has done a deal with Alwaleed and taken over Four Seasons. Several leading US airlines warned yesterday that the rise in COVID-19 cases as part of the latest wave is hurting their bookings and further delaying the travel industry’s recovery. A man called 911 to report a Tesla hit him and that he suffered back, leg and neck injuries, but the car’s cameras actually told a different story.

Health News:  

Okay, there is a lot to cover here. I am trying to be as neutral as I can and only reporting the news items I see, and not giving my bias about vaccinations. 

As of this today (9/10), globally, over 4.6 million people have died from COVID-19.  More than 223,000,000 people have been infected with COVID-19. In the US, confirmed cases of COVID-19 have surpassed 40.6 million people (a huge jump of over 5 million since I wrote last 8/13), and are rising with the Delta variant and slowdown of vaccinations. Of that, US deaths from the pandemic have surpassed 654,806 (a jump of more than 34,000 since 8/13). The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world, followed by Brazil (585,174), India (442,009), Mexico (266,150), Peru (198,621), Russia (187,768), and UK (134,166). 533 people were confirmed infected at the Summer Olympics in Tokyo and not deaths reported. Singapore has just touched a one-year high in number of COVID-19 cases and Japan is planning to extend emergency measures in Tokyo, Osaka, and 17 other prefectures. Global inoculation program Covax has cut its 2021 supply forecast by more than 25%. The WHO says “Too little action” has been taken in achieving vaccine equity. It is still advising the US to not administer booster shots until more countries have gotten at least the first vaccine shot. Scientists are concerned about the proliferation of COVID-19 variants in Africa and the possibility that that could lead to vaccine-proof mutations of the virus. That would then possibly derail the global efforts to end the pandemic. The slow rollouts of first and second vaccine shots throughout Africa leave time for mutations to occur, which is what WHO is most concerned about.

A new report says that some 100,000 more Americans are likely to die of COVID-19 this year. Deaths could climb even more if the hospital ERs and ICUs remain as swamped as they are now across the country. In Florida, a record for new cases of COVID-19 and single day of deaths from COVID-19 was broken, going back to March 2020, the beginning of the pandemic. The US Government is launching a new six-part plan to combat the COVID-19 pandemic amid that national spike in new cases, which are now averaging some 150,000 new cases per day. The strategy includes putting more pressure on the private and public sectors to enforce stricter vaccine mandates and testing rules, providing booster shots to vaccinated Americans, keeping schools open, and improving care for COVID-19 patients. Anecdotally, down here in Florida there is a huge debate about whether children should have to wear masks to school or not, as the first week of school resulted in hundreds of positive tests in Palm Beach County Schools. A state judge in Florida has issued an uncommon ruling against Governor DeSantis’ decision to ban schools requiring students to wear masks.  Now, schools cat start legally requiring the wearing of masks. Also, I now have several friends who have become “breakthrough” cases, having been fully vaccinated, yet contracting COVID-19 anyways, although the symptoms have not been as extreme. The biggest question out their perhaps is whether the Delta variant of COVID-19 causes more severe illness than the earlier versions of COVID-19 virus? It is clearly more contagious. More and more American companies are mandating that their employees be vaccinated. US President Biden is ordering all executive branch employees, federal contractors, and millions of health-care workers to be vaccinated.  He is also directing his administration to issue new rules saying large private employers must require shots or testing, as the Delta variant continues to sicken and kill Americans by the thousands.

Now that the Governor of Texas has signed a new law prohibiting abortions after six-week term of pregnancy, counter to the Federal law, the US Justice Department has sued the State of Texas over their abortion law.  

Animal News:

A Florida woman was attacked by a shark in the Bahamas. The debate has been going on for decades, but archaeologists, while agreeing that genomes of Native Americans show that their ancestors may have come to North America more than 15,000 years ago, still disagree on whether they migrated by land or sea from the Eurasia region. Tyrannosaurus Rex was not always the apex predator. Researchers have discovered a new genus and species that loomed large before T-Rex, called Ulughbegsaurus uzbekistanensis. It was from the lower Upper Cretaceous of Central Asia and lived about 90 million years ago.  It had a mass of over 2200 lbs and was probably 7.5-8 meters in length, larger than a full-grown African elephant.

Entertainment News:

John Lennon’s iconic song, “Imagine”, turned 50-years-old. NBC just set a record for Super Bowl television ad rates at $6.5 million. Kylie Jenner confirmed that she is pregnant with her second child.  Cedric the Entertainer will host the Emmys. Shaquille ONeal has been out of the NBA for 7 seasons, yet his endorsement portfolio increases in size. In the years since his retirement alone, he has appeared in ads for Buick, IcyHot, AriZona beverages, Pizza Hut, Gold Bond, The General, Epson ink, Zales, and many other companies. Shaq said in an interview on Tuesday on HBO that he actually makes more money on endorsements and investments than he made in salary during his playing days. He said his best year during his playing years was about $30 million and now he’s making considerably more annually. In fact, one marketing deal as paid him about $100 million over the last 2 ½ years. He is estimated to have net worth of over $450 million. He is also still paid as an NBA commentator for ESPN. Lucifer finally comes to its end on Netflix. Patton Oswalt cancels his shows in Florida and Utah, saying the venues would not comply with his COVID-19 safety precautions. Lorde has rerecorded 5 “Solar Power” songs in Maori language. Phil Collins is reportedly suffering from health problems and can “barely hold” his drum sticks. Pat Sajak and Vanna White have reupped their contracts with Wheel of Fortune. Dancing With the Stars has revealed its Season 30 cast. Janet Jackson has released a teaser for her upcoming documentary. THE MATRIX 4 has posted its first footage to an interactive fan site. Howard Stern says to anti-vaxxers, “You had the cure and you wouldn’t take it.” Art Mertrano, the star of POLICE ACADEMY movies has died at 84. Lil Uzi Vert says that fans ripped a $24 million diamond out of his forehead? Actor Michael K. Williams has died suddenly.  They have announced the 2021 TV cancellations, to the dismay of many fans. Netflix has cancelled: White Lines, Transparent, Patriot Act with Hasan Minhaj, Chilling Adventures of Sabrina, Mom, Schitt’s Creek, Into the Badlands, Glow, Vikings, Broad City, The Affair, Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD, and Ballers. Other notable TV shows cancelled: Black Lightning, Brooklyn 99, Castle Rock, Superstore, Carmen Sandiego, Insecure, Kim’s Confidence, The Bold Type, MacGyver, Peaky Blinders, High Maintenance, American Gods, NCIS: New Orleans, Better Call Saul, Last Man Standing, Ellen Degeneres Show, etc.

I used to do Movie Reviews in the Repo Commentary, especially when I lived at 67th/Broadway above a multiple cinema. Then I would see about 100 films per year. Now, especially with COVID-19, I only see movies by buying them on TV. But, I have seen a few in December 2020 and in 2021:

RESPECT                          9.0 (out of 10)

NOBODY                            8.0

NEWS OF THE WORLD 7.5

STILLWATER                    7.0

WONDER WOMAN 84    6.0

I’m sorry, but I don’t know where to put this rant of mine, so I’m blaming all the newscasters on TV. Two very common practices (just watch Today or any news broadcast) now are: not using the adverb and saying double pronouns. For example, when the sportscaster says, “boy he hit that one square, or hit that one strong”, or the “things developed slow”, rather than correctly using the adverbs: squarely, strongly, and slowly. The double pronoun usage is actually more prevalent now, with almost every single newscaster doing it. “President Biden, he said today…”. “The woman arrested today she said…” “The firefighters, they are unable to control the wildfire.”  I noticed this habit about 2 years ago, before COVID-19, and it has spread just like the pandemic. Okay, now that I’ve got that off my chest, can we all stop saying, “Just do you.” I’m not sure if that is for encouragement, self-awareness, or some higher consciousness. Wouldn’t we naturally “do me” as I don’t know how to “do you” or “them”? Isn’t that what we have been doing all along? Maybe a schizophrenic with multiple personality disorder “does us”? I’m sure that the late George Carlin would be asking, “What does ‘do you’ mean anyway?” Impersonate yourself? Think of yourself first? Act like yourself and have your whole being become public? Complete yourself first, before attempting to criticize others?  Be the ball?

Technology & Space News:

I thought this was interesting, Sci-Hub, a website where scientific studies that are usually locked behind paywalls are shared for free. The website is almost always under legal threat, but still has managed to upload more than 2 million new articles. This is also cool, JP Morgan has just signed a deal with Volkswagen to acquire an equity interest in the carmaker’s payments business. JP Morgan is trying to stay ahead of the curve in anticipation of auto manufacturers installing technology in cars that allows motorists to pay for automotive expenses such as gasoline and tolls from within their cars, according to Reuters.  Hmmm, in unrelated news (maybe) Apple’s Watch software chief has taken over its car project as well.  Scientific American reports that the Waves to Water competition to use small-scale wave energy devices to desalinate water is entering its 5th and final stage, testing the devices in the “Drink” phase. The resulting innovations could make a big difference for disaster relief efforts, allowing responders to make drinkable water from ocean water. It also could mean bigger things ahead for wave energy technology. In Iceland’s barren landscape, a new container-like structure has risen alongside plumes of steam near a geothermal power plant. It is designed to reverse some of the damage carbon-dioxide emissions are doing to the planet and the ozone layer.  The facility, named Orca, will suck CO2 out of the air.

US News:

20 years after the attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon, the masterminds who are being held in prison at Guantanamo Bay, finally had a hearing on Wednesday, which resulted in yet another delay of justice, which has been playing out at least a decade. Did you know that FBI agents and most other Federal agents have licenses to carry concealed weapons anywhere in the US? An academic study reports that banks that helped facilitate the PPP loans ended up taking on more risk in other areas of lending, notably Q2 and Q3 of last year. Another study conducted by Qualtrics and published by Credit Karma found that 1/3 of buy now/pay later borrowers have missed one or more payments, and most borrowers saw their credit score decline. Younger consumers were more likely to have missed at least one payment. JPMorgan Chase will acquire the Infatuation, the parent company of restaurant guide Zagat, as the bank pushes to attract more high-end customers to its credit card business. American Express has again delayed its plans for returning staff to offices, with 1/24/22 the new target date, due to the pandemic.

International News:

In 2015, ISIS killed 130 people in Paris. The trial has finally begun. Ford will cease to make cars in India and will take a $2 billion charge for that. Another container ship ran aground blocking the Suez Canal, before being freed. Did you know that Mexico has no fighter jets?  For the first time since the United States’ disastrous and poorly planned evacuation from Afghanistan, leading to 13 soldiers’ and scores of civilian deaths, stranding at least 200 American citizens, and leaving $50-60 billion in US military equipment, an international passenger flight left Kabuls airport on Thursday. In Brazil, President Bolsonaro is temporarily banning social media companies from removing certain content, including its own disinformation. France will now offer free contraception to women up to 25-years-old.

Florida:

A former King’s Academy teacher in Palm Beach County and softball coach has died of COVID-19. Before the attacks of 9/11, the hijackers wandered around Palm Beach County, with 4 of them learning how to fly planes at a local flight school.

Jokes and Such:

Okay, I decided that since you readers are only going to give me dirty jokes that would just get me in trouble, in the context of distanced learning and your kids likely at home on the computer, I would provide you some CLEAN jokes that you can share with them. That’s just how I am J

A woman brought a very limp duck into a veterinary surgeon. As she laid her pet on the table, the vet pulled out his stethoscope and listened to the bird’s chest.

After a moment or two, the vet shook his head and sadly said, “I’m sorry, your duck, Cuddles, has passed away.”

The distressed woman wailed, “Are you sure?” “Yes, i’m sure. You’re duck is dead,” replied the vet.

“How can you be so sure?” she protested. “I mean you haven’t done any testing on him or anything. He might just be in a coma or something.”

The vet rolled his eyes, turned around and left the room. He returned a few minutes later with a black Labrador Retriever. As the duck’s owner looked on in amazement, the dog stood on his hind legs, put his front paws on the examination table and sniffed the duck from top to bottom. He then looked up at the vet with sad eyes and shook his head.

The vet patted the dog on the head and took him out of the room. A few minutes later he returned with a cat. The cat jumped up on the table and also delicately sniffed the bird from head to foot. The cat sat back on its haunches, shook its head, meowed softly and strolled out of the room.

The vet looked at the woman and said, “I’m sorry, but as I said, this is most definitely, 100% certifiably, a dead duck.”

The vet turned to his computer terminal, hit a few keys and produced a bill, which he handed to the woman.

The duck’s owner, still in shock, took the bill. “$150!” she cried, “$150 just to tell me my duck is dead?!”

The vet shrugged, “I’m sorry. If you had just taken my word for it, the bill would have been $20, but with the Lab Report and the Cat Scan, it’s now $150.”

Repo Commentary-08/13/21

I have designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo.

The Repo Commentary is back from a short break, while I was out in Colorado Springs for a certain, very close Green Beret’s beautiful wedding. 

I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry. Although I have completed several projects (below) and am looking to lend my 39 years of expertise to firms via consulting or via full-time positions.

  • I have completed writing/recording/presenting the above Pierpoint Finance Academy course on Repo Fundamentals. Our new normal of e-Learning.
  • I am sharing my opinion and expertise with the industry in articles in various periodicals.
  • I am consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.
  • I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums.

So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, call my mobile (646-753-1300), email (jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or hit me up on LinkedIn.  

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former firms and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better!

Holidays or Events (08/13):

  • It’s Friday the 13th
  • Blame Someone Else Day
  • International Left-Handers Day
  • National Filet Mignon Day
  • National Kool-Aid Day
  • National Prosecco Day
  • Skeptics Day International
  • Independence Day in Central African Republic
  • Women’s Day in Tunisia

On Monday, we remember icon Elvis Presley, who was found dead on August 16, 1977.

Some Famous People Born on (08/13):

  • 1860-Annie Oakley, American target shooter
  • 1866-Giovanni Agnelli, Italian businessman and founder of Fiat S.p.A
  • 1899-Alfred Hitchcock-English-American director and producer
  • 1902-Felix Wankel-German engineer
  • 1911-William Bernback, American advertiser, co-founded DDB Worldwide
  • 1912-Ben Hogan, American golfer and sportscaster
  • 1926-Fidel Castro, Cuban lawyer and President of Cuba
  • 1930-Don Ho, American singer and ukulele player
  • 1935-Mudcat Grant, American baseball player and my former coach
  • 1949-Bobby Clarke, Candian ice hockey player and manager
  • 1951-Dan Fogelberg, American singer-songwriter and guitarist
  • 1959-Danny Bonaduce, American actor and wrestler
  • 1970-Elvis Grbac, American football player and coach

Daily Weird Facts:

Finland is the world’s happiest country, according to the 2019 World Happiness Report.

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

“If you want others to be happy, practice compassion. If you want to be happy, practice compassion.”—Dalai Lama

Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

$68.03/barrel on 08/13

The price of Oil appears to have leveled off at these highs. Big Oil companies are blasting President Biden for turning to OPEC for more crude oil. The price of gasoline at my West Palm Beach station jumped 6 cents in the past week, at $2.95/gallon. However, gasoline prices have been rising faster in surrounding areas (up to $3.79/gallon) and in other parts of the country.

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates). I did decide to trim this running list to just a few dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

109.59 on 08/13/21

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

08/13/21 at $1.1797

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

08/13/21 at $1.3866

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

1.2515 on 08/13/21

With data showing reemerging inflation and the Fed’s concern about inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation may become a popular topic again soon. Interestingly, the number of people in the US invested in Gold and Silver is far less than those invested in Equities.  In fact, while about 50% of Americans invest, only 10.8% of the population owns Gold and only about 11.6% of the country owns Silver. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

08/13/21 $1,781.50

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

$47,796.20 on 08/13/21 ouch what a whipsaw!

After rebounding in 2019 dramatically since the beginning of the year, although certainly not to its $19,000 high, Bitcoin hit a wall at the beginning of the Summer of 2019, then rallied during the Summer, and tumbled again in Q4, and had rallied in early in 2020.  It then gave up all of those 2020 gains with the COVID-19 contagion. On 3/13/20, it had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It has since made almost a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels recently, wiping out all 2021 gains. It continues to slip further. It’s beginning to have an inverse relationship to Gold, like bonds tend to do with equities. The SEC has decided to put off a decision on WisdomTree’s proposed bitcoin ETF and requested public comments on the application. The SEC wants views on whether the ETF will be vulnerable to manipulation. Fidelity Digital Assets is increasing staff by 70%. Fed’s Powell favors Fed-issued central bank digital currency over multiple private cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. 

Brexit:

Nothing to report.

Global Financial News:

Surging global M&A deals have reached a new high of $3.6 trillion worldwide. That has already topped last year’s $3.59 trillion according Refinitiv. The number of deals too is up to 35,128 so far for 2021, up 24% over the entire 2020. Cash deposited in the Federal Reserve’s RRP program hit a record $1.087 trillion, highlighting just how much USD cash is sloshing in the market and available. The Treasury Department is going to start paying down its Treasury Bill issuance, which is going to reduce the amount of collateral available, particularly in the Repo market, further. It’s kind of ironic that the Fed is starting their new facility to take collateral on Reverse Repo and pay out USD cash, as their counterparties in the RRP are already unable to find collateral for themselves at the broker/dealers. Some special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) face the prospect of returning cash to investors if they fail to sign up to deals before a lockup period expires. 80 SPACs have less than a year to secure acquisitions before they must refund investors according S&P Global. Major fund managers worldwide are holding on to risky assets based on the belief that a surge in US inflation is temporary and that the Fed will give ample indication when it will begin tapering asset purchases. Most money managers think the Fed will be watching the labor market more closely than inflation, according to Reuters. Hedge Fund stock pickers are becoming increasingly bold in their conviction buys and crowding into long positions in the 50 most popular stocks, according to data from Morgan Stanley. That could portend trouble, as it may not be enough diversification and if they choose to pull out, it could have a major impact on those stocks’ prices. Neobanks or fintechs that aren’t fully chartered banks but provide a variety of financial services are seeing soaring valuations and grabbing huge sums of money from investors, sometimes outshining their traditional banking rivals. Some firms, such as Robinhood, Coinbase, PayPal, and Square are tending to trade around 15x higher than their estimated core sales, while some traditional banks are trading around 3x, according to the WSJ.

US Market News:

At levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is now well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. We closed at a record high today!

Here are the latest DJIA closes, just to demonstrate the massive volatility (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates).

08/13/21  35,515.38

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 record high

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58

12/26/18 at 2,467.70

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

08/13/21 at 4,468.00

S&P has regained everything it lost since 3/11 pandemic announcement, and more, breaking above the high set in early September 2020.  It set a record high today!

Nasdaq closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

08/13/21 at 14,822.90 new record high

The US Treasury market

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28%

05/10/20 at 0.16%

07/24/20 at 0.14%

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

08/13/21 at 0.23% back to 7/14 level, after having fallen 2 weeks ago to 0.17%

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

08/13/21 at 0.44% which ignores that it hit 0.33% on 08/02/21

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38%

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

08/13/21 at 0.79% it hit 0.65% on 08/03/21

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63%

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24%

07/14/21 at 1.11%

08/13/21 at 1.08% hit 0.95% on 08/03/21

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65%

12/06/19 at 1.84%

02/06/20 at 1.65%

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02%

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37%

08/13/21 at 1.29% hit 1.19% on 08/03/21

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

08/13/21 at 1.94% although it hit 1.83% on 08/04/21

Housing News:

As President Biden has instituted an extension to the moratorium on evictions, states are racing to pay out $billions in rent aid before the Federal deadline for that. And they are way behind. For instance, incoming NY Governor Hochul faces the herculean task of distributing nearly $800 million to needy renters before the Federal government takes it back. NY received $1.3 billion from Congress last year as the first part of federal rent aid. As of this week, less than $100 million has made its way to landlords to cover what their tenants owe them in back rent. About $460 million has been approved but is awaiting landlord approval to be paid out. Guidelines allow the US Dept. of Treasury to claw back unused funding starting 9/30/21 and reallocate it to other states’ programs that have used up at least 65% of what they were allotted. Here is an odd connection, Americans most likely to be evicted are the least likely to be vaccinated for COVID-19. NY is not the only state with a problem. Seven states have spent less than 2% of their rent assistance funds (AL, AR, MS, IN, ND, SC, and WY), according to the National Low-Income Housing Coalition. Florida has spent just 3% of the $870 million allocated to it. Georgia has spent 2% and Ohio has spent about 7%. Nationwide, only 17% of this first round of rental aid funding has been used. NY’s program did not kick off until 6/1 and the first payments didn’t go out until 7/19. President Biden extended the Federal eviction moratorium, which is still being challenged in court, but NYC’s eviction moratorium ends on 8/31/21. You’ve probably seen the shocking headlines that in the last 10 months, some 60,000 New Yorkers have moved to Florida. But, the RealDeal reports that NYC grew by 629,000 people since 2010. Midtown NYC Distrikt Hotel is heading for foreclosure. Nationally, the hot housing market showed Home Prices were up in 94% of the nation’s major metro markets. Stephen Ross has become the King of the West Palm Beach (where I live) office market. Airbnb boasted a 2nd quarter revenue, but is sounding the alarm about the Delta variant impact. Billionaire Mets owner and hedge fund manager Steven Cohen has bought a South Florida mansion for nearly $22 million.

Repo/Securities Financing News:                               

At the 6/16 FOMC meeting announcement, the Fed could have increased the rate on the RRP to 0.05%, which might have forced GC repo rates higher to compete with the Fed paying cash providers 5bp more. However, it wouldn’t have solved the present dislocation that there isn’t enough collateral for the cash in the market and the RRP is a disintermediation of the broker/dealers with their own typical cash providers. Yet, the Fed chose to raise the RRP by 5bp. The second possible solution, to taper QE, was probably the logical choice, but would be the least friendly to other markets and perhaps to the public. However, the Fed, while not beginning the taper, decided to hint at it coming. This could solve the collateral shortage problem. The third possible solution, was to adjust the Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) rate higher, which would in turn raise the average Fed Funds rate, which would in turn raise the GC Repo rate, since all three products compete with each other for that elusive cash. The Fed also chose to raise the IOER rate by 5bp. Some market analysts actually mentioned this as a major influence on the subsequent fall in the equity market, saying that cash left the equity market to take advantage of IOER. Really? I doubt that had much of a factor at all. I think the move out of Equities was due to several other reasons, including the rising competitive yield in US Treasuries and other Fixed Income products, the warning of future Fed tightenings in the Fed statement, and the specters of inflation and nagging unemployment discussed by the Fed in its statement. So, these are monetary policy concerns and economic fundamentals concerns, which made the equity market jittery, not the IOER tweak. We just had another FOMC meeting on July 28. (see below)

One thing that I missed and my friend Scott Skrym brings to my attention, in the fine print of the FOMC minutes, was mention for the first time in a long time of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). It should be thought of as a Reverse Repo from the perspective of the Federal Reserve: it will give out cash and take in collateral. This is similar in direction to the Discount Window and the O/N and Term RPs that the Fed has been doing with Primary Dealers. It is the OPPOSITE of the direction of the RRP program, in which the Fed takes cash from money funds and others and gives out collateral from its portfolio.  Basically, the SRF rate would be set at the top of the Fed Funds target range (currently that would be 0.25%), would be available at first only to the Primary Dealers, eventually extended to approved counterparties. There are some problems with the rate and the potential flood of collateral the Fed could receive on a daily basis, the opposite of the amount of cash the Fed is currently getting dumped on it on a daily basis. It also calls into question the term that the Fed has avoided in the 39 years that I’ve been in the industry, and that is to become “Lender of Last Resort”. I’m sure we will hear much more about this in the future from the Fed.

Securities Finance Industry Conferences

This section is a work in progress. I am searching new sources of virtual conferences, networking, and symposiums, rather than just continuing to run the 25-30 annual physical conferences for the industry, many of which are no longer being held, because of the pandemic.  I am hearing from some customers that, with the current surge in COVID-19 cases and Delta Variant, particularly in Florida, that they may forego the RMA Conference in Florida.

  • ICMA Fintech Week London:  7/12/21-7/16/21, Virtual.
  • HIS Markit Securities Finance Q2 2021 Webinar: 7/14/21, Virtual.
  • 25th IMN/AFME Global ABS 2021:  9/27/21-9/28/21, London.
  • ICMA/ERCC Professional Repo Market and Collateral Management Workshop 2021:  9/27/21-10/5/21, Virtual.
  • 37th Annual RMA Securities Finance & Collateral Management Conference:  10/18/21-10/21/21, will be in person (first time since PASLA was cancelled), Aventura, FL. I have not missed an RMA, and it’s in Florida, so…
  • FundForum Internnational/Clearstream: 10/20/21-10/22/21, Monaco.
  • 2021 RMA Annual Risk Management Conference:  10/25/21-10/28/21, TBA.
  • Finadium Rates & Repo 2021:  November 10, 2021, TBA if Virtual or on location in NYC.
  • 27th IMN ABS East 2021:  12/13/21-12/15/21, Miami Beach, FL.

Federal Reserve News:

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 0.00-0.25% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks. 

The next FOMC meetings are:  09/22/21, 11/03/21, and 12/15/21. All of the meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we are in. 

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight.

At the 7/28 FOMC meeting, the Fed focused on progress on vaccinations and indicators of economic growth and employment continuing to strengthen. But, it said the sectors most effected by the pandemic have shown improvement but haven’t fully recovered. The Fed specifically linked the path of the economy to the path of the virus.  It cited that risks to the economic outlook remain. Pointing at its mandate for maximum employment and controlled inflation at about 2%, the Fed said that it would continue to maintain an accommodative stance on monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. It kept the target Fed Funds rate at 0.00-0.25%. it also chose to continue its aggressive purchasing of US Treasuries and Agency MBS at $80b and $40b/month respectively. It seemed to me that the Fed actually said less in this FOMC Statement than they did at the last one, choosing not to freak everyone out about possible Fed tightening or QE tapering. 

The FOMC also issued an additional statement regarding “Repurchase Agreement Arrangements”. It announced the establishment of a domestic Standing Repo Facility (SRF) (which I discussed above) and a repo facility for foreign and international monetary authorities (FIMA Repo Facility). This latter facility was new to me. Both facilities are intended to be backstops to the money market. So, we received more detailed information at this FOMC: the SRF will have daily O/N repo operations against US Treasuries, Agency Debentures, and Agency MBS pools, with a maximum total size of $500 billion. The minimum bid rate for repos under the facility will be the top end of the Fed Funds range, currently 0.25%, which is currently ABOVE the general level of O/N interest rates (of course, you never know what the Fed means here. Do they mean the SOFR rate, which is an Offer Side rate, while the SRF rate is supposed to be a Bid Side rate, or if they are calculating against the mean or mid-point of bid/offer spread?).  Or, they could just be talking about this SRF in the context of where Repo and Reverse Repo rates are versus the Fed Funds target rate, lately closer to the bottom of the range. The initial counterparties will be their 22 Primary Dealers, which we knew, and be expanded to other ‘depository institutions.’ Hmmm, I think that just means banks and credit unions, and could still not give access to other needy collateral providers like asset managers, hedge funds, REITs, insurance companies, municipalities, pension funds, etc. Hopefully, I am wrong about that. The FIMA repo facility will actually operate a little easier, as the Fed will enter into O/N reverse repos as needed with foreign official institutions against their holding of US Treasuries already maintained in custody at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY, mostly in the SOMA accounts. That rate will also be 0.25% now and the per counterparty limit will be $60 billion. This facility could be key for these institutions to receive US dollar funding, when propping up their own currencies, rather than selling their US Treasuries outright. I think we will be discussing these 2 Fed facilities in future Repo Commentaries and you probably will see my comments pop up in some upcoming media articles.

On Thursday, the Federal Reserve Board issued Enforcement Actions with South Shore Bank and Dime Community Bank. Both were Flood Insurance violations. On 8/5, the Federal Reserve Board announced individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1. Also on 8/5, the Federal Reserve Board announced the termination of enforcement action with JPMorgan Chase. The Fed has extended the comment period on proposed rule to govern funds transfers over the Federal Reserve Banks’ FedNow Service.

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. Much quieter than it has been previously:

08/10 5.1 northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

08/10 4.9 Kuril Islands

08/10 5.1 SSE of Mukalla, Yemen

08/10 4.7 SW of Santiago, Peru

08/10 4.5 SW of Santiago, Peru

08/10 4.6 SSW of Paracas, Peru

08/10 5.1 SSE of Kuril’sk, Russia

08/10 4.5 WSW of La Libertad, El Salvador

08/09 4.8 SE of Shwebo, Myanmar

08/09 4.6 ENE of Lospalos, Timor Leste

08/09 5.0 southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Weather:

Northern California continues to burn.  The Dixie Fire has now scorched an area more than twice the size of New York City. Firefighters are battling the largest single wildfire in state history (surpassing last year’s Creek Fire in the Central Valley, but half the size of the August Complex of 2020 which were lightning-caused fires across 7 counties and fought together) and bracing for a return of weather that could make the fires worse.  The winds aren’t expected to reach the ferocious speeds that caused the fire to explode in size last week, but there are still thousands of homes that firefighters are trying to protect. An expert from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said, “the live trees that are out there now have a lower fuel moisture than you would find when you go to a hardware store or a lumber yard and get that piece of lumber that’s kiln dried.” So, it won’t take much in embers or sparks to set live trees ablaze. The fire incinerated much of Greenville last week, destroying 370 homes and structures and threatening nearly 14,000 buildings in the northern Sierra Nevada. The Dixie Fire is still being investigated, although PG&E said it may have sparked when a tree fell on one of its power lines. Northwest of the Dixie Fire in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest, hundreds of homes remained threatened by the McFarland and Monument fires, which continue to grow. About 25% of the McFarland fire is contained and about 3% of the Monument fire is contained. South of the Dixie Fire, the River Fire, which broke out Wednesday near Colfax, has already destroyed 68 homes.  Smoke from the wildfires burning the US West continues to flow into parts of Colorado and Utah, causing air quality alerts. I was there in Colorado during alerts. The air quality there has measured as the worst in the world due to these fires. California’s fire season is on track to surpass last year’s season, which was the worst in recorded state history. Since the beginning of 2021, more than 6,000 fires in California have destroyed more than 1,260 square miles of land, more than triple the losses of 2020 during the same period. And California’s fires are currently among 107 large fires burning across 14 states. By Wednesday night, the Dixie Fire had burned over 500,000 acres. Although authorities will be looking at data supplied by PS&G regarding a possible downed line in igniting this fire, a man has been arrested for allegedly not only starting several of the fires, but even starting a fire in an evacuation alley for firefighters, basically behind them to engulf them.

The heatwave across the country, while about 10 degrees lower than it was, has very high heat indices for some 146 million Americans over the next few days. We’ve been getting slammed with rainstorms here in Florida and 105 heat indices, with temps in the 90s. The National Weather Service is expecting heavy rain through the week in some sections of the country and possible tornadoes through the tornado belt. According to NOAA, July was the hottest month ever recorded.

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  According to CNN, one thing about 2020 that people didn’t notice during the pandemic is that hurricane forecasts improved. Focus is now on size and speed of the approaching storm and the critical “cone of uncertainty”, which affects a certain population. 2021 was expected by the NOAA to be an Active hurricane season. They expected a likely range of 13-20 named storms (winds of 39mph or higher). They expected 6-10 of them to be Hurricanes, and of that 3-5 reaching Category 3 or stronger.  This week, NOAA revised those numbers slightly higher. Now they predict 15-21 named storms, 7-10 hurricanes, of which still 3-5 reaching Category 3 or stronger.

There are currently two tropical waves in the Atlantic at this time, that could develop into tropical depressions or storms in the coming days. The NHC is keeping an eye on them, as they may impact the Caribbean this week. They are giving them a 50% chance and a 40% chance, respectively, of developing over the next 5 days. We’ve had 5 named storms, ending with Elsa. The next names would be Fred, Grace, Henri, Ida, Julian, Kate, Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, Peter, Rose, Sam, Teresa, Victor, and Wanda. Radar and satellite images are showing increasing tropical activity in Atlantic. Storm warnings were just issued for Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands. As I’m writing this on Wednesday, the NHC named Tropical Storm Fred and put out warnings for the west coast of Florida, although the East coast of Florida is in the cone of possibility.  Fred fell to a Tropical Depression over Cuba, on Thursday, but now looks like it will intensify over warm water into probably the first named Hurricane of the season, a Category 1 is likely. Also, Tropical Depression Grace behind Fred is strengthening and may be the next Tropical Storm or even Hurricane.

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. In the Eastern North Pacific. There are currently no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific.

United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres has just proclaimed “a code red for humanity.” This is the unequivocal consensus of the world’s top climate scientists, per Bloomberg, who revealed in a report Monday that, not only are humans responsible for the catastrophes befalling the atmosphere, the oceans, the ice packs, and the forests, but that without drastic moves by the planet’s leaders to eliminate greenhouse gas pollution, things are going get a lot worse soon. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that the crucial warming threshold of 2 degrees Centigrade will be exceeded during the 21st Century. In addition, the report says that the past decade was most likely hotter than any period in the last 125,000 years, and combustion and deforestation have raised CO2 in the atmosphere higher than it’s been in two million years.

Sports News:       

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series.

For 2021, MLB is seems to slowly be returning back to normal.  MLB and Barstool Sports are reportedly in significant talks to broadcast games, according to the NY Post. My mighty Red Sox have been tumbling, along with the Mets, as the Blue Jays, Phillies, and Braves make their August runs.  The 7/30 trade deadline passed with some teams becoming rebuilding and others adding star power for the big push. I don’t know if you caught Thursday night’s baseball treat for fans, as the Yankees and White Sox played in the cornfields of Iowa at a ballpark seating 8,000 fans, built right next to the field from 1990s movie hit, FIELD OF DREAMS, which one Best Picture Oscar. People dressed in old style uniforms and fans won seats through a lottery. Kevin Costner, start of the movie, was on hand to throw out the first pitch, stepping out of the cornfields in center field and walking to the mound. He also provided game coverage for a couple of innings. The game itself was as exciting as could be expected. With plenty of homeruns, the Yankees jumped out to an early 4-1 lead, but the White Sox climbed back into the game to lead late 7-4, but then the Yankees rallied back and seemed to cap off the dramatic comeback in the top of the 9th with a 2-run HR. But, the excitement wasn’t over, as the White Sox hit a walkoff 2-run HR of their own in the bottom of the 9th, to win 9-8! I actually watched the entire game, even though I’m not a Yankees fan, and I forewent watching the Patriots’ first preseason game. Preseason NFL games are meaningless for the fans anyways.

Current standings (08/09), after about 110-115 games:

AL EAST the Red Sox lost 9 of 11 games and relinquished first place now by 5 games to the Rays. In fact, the Red Sox lost several games to the Rays, Jays, and Yankees in this stretch, as those 3 teams won 8 out of 10 games each. The Red Sox have yet to pitch their healed ace Chris Sales, for some reason, and picked up some extra offensive punch, but it hasn’t translated yet to these games. Last night (Wednesday), the Red Sox ran up the score to 20-1 over the Rays (before giving up 7 runs in the 9th?). 20 runs was the most the Red Sox had scored in a game since 2015. Maybe the offense is back. Baltimore is 29 games back.

Tampa Bay

Boston

NY Yankees

Toronto

Baltimore

AL CENTRAL this began as the runaway division for the White Sox, but then the Cleveland Indians (renamed a politically more correct Guardians starting 2022) made a run at them. That has subsequently faltered. The White Sox are back in front by 10 ½ games over Cleveland. Minnesota is 18 games back

Chicago WS

Cleveland

Detroit

Kansas City

Minnesota

AL WEST the A’s have been a surprise, but the Astros have finally overtook them, and have the slight lead by 2 games. The Mariners are not out of it either, 7 ½ games back of the Astros. The Rangers are 27 games back.

Houston

Oakland

Seattle
LA Angels

Texas

NL EAST this division continues to underperform, which leaves almost every team still in the running.  With the Mets losing 8 out of their last 10 games, the Phillies leapfrogged to first place, winning 8 in a row, and the Braves won 7 of 10 to take 2nd place, bumping the Mets down to 3rd place. Based on the trade deadline, the Nats decided to throw in the towel on some big contracts and begin rebuilding. The Marlins are 12 games back.

Philadelphia

Atlanta

NY Mets

Washington

Miami

NL CENTRAL The Brewers are holding on to first place by 5 games over the Reds, who just won 8 of their last 10, while the Cards are 10 ½ games behind, and the Cubs became sellers at the trade deadline and begin their rebuilding. The Pirates are 25 games back.

Milwaukee

Cincinnati

St. Louis

Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh

NL WEST the World Champion Dodgers looked like they would run away with the division, but the Giants said ‘hold my beer’. Plenty of analysts said that the Giants were not good enough to hold first place, but yet they have widened to 4 games ahead of the Dodgers. You can’t count the Padres out either, who are only 7 1/2 games back of the Giants. Led by teams with the two best records in MLB, this high-flying division has put the Diamondbacks in the rearview mirror, behind first place by 38 1/2 games.

San Francisco

LA Dodgers

San Diego

Colorado

Arizona

Golf:

The PGA Tour 2021 season rolls on. Well, it’s hard to speak without remarking on the United States’ surprising Gold medals in Men’s Golf and Women’s Golf at the Tokyo Olympics. Our first in Golf in 121 years!  The 2021 US Amateur is coming up. Harris English is coming to Bryson DeChambeau’s defense on heckling fans. The fans were yelling “Brooksie” at him, carrying over from the spat he had with Brooks Koepka a few months back. Bryson is a polarizing force in golf, with his attitude and unorthodox long-drive approach to the game, which has had less success than expected. But, as Sergio Garcia could teach him, you need to ignore the hecklers or it just gets worse. The WGC-St. Jude Invitational, which featured many golf stars, ended Sunday in a 3-player playoff.  Third round leader, Harris English, began Day 4 with a 2-shot lead, then needed a 12-foot putt on 18 to make the playoff, and missed. Bryson was only 2 shots behind English, but wound up tied for 8th place. Cam Smith was tied for the lead with just one hole to play and wound up tying for 5th place! In the wild ups and downs, including penalties for slow play, Abraham Ancer won the playoff and the tournament. This week’s PGA Tour tournament is the Wyndham Championship in Greensboro, NC.

NFL:

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs beating the Chiefs 31-9. Preseason games begin next week. Despite surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths all over the country, the NFL is sticking with their plans to fill their stadiums with fans. This past Sunday, the NFL inducted the 2021 class for the Hall of Fame. Three of them made the HOF on their first ballot: Peyton Manning, Calvin Johnson, and Charles Woodson. Saturday’s enshrinement ceremony featured Troy Polamalu, Edgerrin James, and coach Jimmy Johnson. Along with the 3 first ballotters, there were 5 other inductees that took to the podium on Sunday: Drew Pearson, Tom Flores (coach), John Lynch, Alan Faneca, and Bill Nunn. After the ceremony, Tom Brady congratulated his friend Peyton via Twitter. NFL teams are currently in training camp and 5 teams have already been snakebit. The Colts QB Carson Wentz has a foot injury and G Quenton Nelson also had a foot injury and both have had to have surgery. The Texans are missing QB Deshaun Watson, who is still at odds with the organization, wanting to be traded, while himself fielding civil lawsuits from 22 women, accusing him of coercive and lewd sexual behavior. The team is leaving him off the plane for the trip to Green Bay and the preseason opener. The Seahawks have two holdout players in camp who aren’t playing, Duane Brown and Jamal Adams.  The Cowboys are without starting QB Dak Prescott, who missed two-thirds of last season with a gruesome injury. He left practice last week with a shoulder strain. The Saints, already dealing with QB Drew Brees retirement, now are missing top WR Michael Thomas, who is nursing an ankle injury.

Tennis

The 2021 tennis season is now in full swing. However, for various reasons, Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, and Serena have dropped out of matches in July and August, implying that the 4 already all-time greats will not play a match at the big Canada or Cincinnati tournaments, which leaves their US Open prospects in question. Now, regarding Djokovic, he has won all 3 of the Slams this year, a feat not done in a single year since Rod Laver in 1969. Also, after winning Wimbledon, he then played at the Olympics, so he wouldn’t be going into the US Open cold. Federer is 40 and while he did come back this year, his record has been 9-4, and he has been questioning (out loud) how much more he will play. Nadal has a nagging foot injury and 39-year-old Serena has an ankle injury from Wimbledon. Let’s not forget Osaka either, who not only withdrew from Wimbledon, but has also already withdrawn from Montreal, not to mention skipping her own country’s hosted Olympics.

NCAA Basketball

The 2020-2021 season began in November. The 2021 NCAA tournament, March Madness, yielded the national champion, undefeated Gonzaga.

Olympics:

The 2021 Tokyo Summer Games began on 7/23, and ended on Sunday 8/8 with the Closing Ceremony. It was marred by COVID-19 precautions and infections, and the need to ban fans from the stadiums.  It was still very competitive and frequently exciting. There was also plenty of drama to be had. The United States, for the 7th straight Summer Games, won the most medals (and most the country has ever won), and more importantly, beat out China for the most Gold medals of any country, with 39. Of course, they are no longer made out of Gold. Of the 113 medals that the US won, 66 of them were won by US women. The host country, Japan, won the most medals it has ever won before, a trend that continues, with the Host country seemingly with home field advantage, even without fans in the stands. This Olympics featured the most different countries winning medals. The US women’s volleyball team won its first team Gold (since sport started in 1964), while both the US women’s (7th consecutive) and men’s basketball teams (4th consecutive) won Gold. Sue Bird and Diana Taurasi became the first basketball players, male or female, to win 5 Olympic Gold medals. The US women beat Australia for Gold medal. The US won Gold in golf in No.5 Xander Schauffele, who lives right here in Palm Beach Gardens, FL, and in No.1 world-ranked US player Nelly Korda. Both won the first Gold in golf for the US, for men or women, since 1900! The US won rare Gold medals in skeet shooting and fencing. Perennial US stars such as Katie Ledecky and Kevin Durant delivered. But, new stars emerged too, in Sydney McLaughlin, Suni Lee, Allyson Felix (winning her 11th career medal, making her the most decorated track and field Olympian in US history), and Caeleb Dressel who collected 5 gold medals for swimming. US men’s soccer team did not qualify, which is unusual, and US women’s soccer team won only Bronze, which is also unusual. Also, the US lost to Japan 2-0 in returning sport baseball (“America’s pastime”).  In the host country, where baseball is like a national religion, the Japanese took the Olympic Baseball seriously, stopping their Central and Pacific Leagues mid-season to pick the best players to take on the behemoth USA, knowing that the US has won Gold every time. Meanwhile, US fans considered Olympic Baseball and afterthought and the USOC fielded a team of misfits, minor leaguers, and lifers, but no current stars. The US dominated in women’s gymnastics with team Gold, but not as much as they have before, with 6 overall medals, and there was plenty of controversy, as team Captain Simone Biles decided to withdraw from the team event and the individual events, except balance beam, in which she won a Bronze medal. She highlighted mental issues, primarily anxiety and pressure she was under. While I sympathize with athlete’s speaking out about this stress, starting with tennis star Osaka, I also think that Biles took a spot from someone who could have been in the Olympics from our US qualifying. Also, I think some of that pressure was what she put on herself by wearing a patch on her jacket that said she was “Greatest Of All Time”. I’m not sure you get the same pass that Osaka did (and she by the way did not compete, despite it being her country’s hosting, but did light the Olympic flame), if you brag about being the GOAT and are by far the superior athlete and then quit. The US dominated in the pool with the men’s and women’s teams. The next Summer Olympics will be in just 3 years, 2024, in Paris. Meanwhile, the next Winter Olympics are going to be unusually next year, 2022. TV Ratings for the Tokyo Olympics were down significantly from Rio 2016, London 2012, and prior games, by an average of 45%!!!!!  Some individual days were even far worse. Definitely, the pandemic had an impact, but so did the 13-hour time difference from USA ET. That led to many spoilers from live broadcasts until the primetime broadcasts.  The group who was out the money was NBC, which will likely lead to NBC charging us extra for streaming the next Olympic Games.

NHL:

The puck dropped on the asterisk season (last season) on 10/2/19. The puck dropped (again) to conclude the same season on 8/1/20. The teams played in the modified playoffs in two bubble arenas in Toronto and Edmonton, without fans. The Stanley Cup was won by the Tampa Bay Lightning (who ousted my Bruins, due to the Presidents Cup curse) over the Dallas Stars, 4 games to 2. The Finals were held in the Edmonton bubble, without fans.

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic.

It was an exciting Playoffs, despite the odd configuration of the Divisions to be less traveling for the players and more COVID-19 aware. The Cinderella team this year, but perennial Stanley Cup winners in the old days, the Montreal Canadiens, ran into a rough Tampa Bay Lightning team and a goalie who was on fire. They wound up losing in 5 games, 4-1, to the Lightning, who repeated their Stanley Cup victory from last year. Next up is the NHL Draft 2021. The NHL is expanding to 32 teams for the 2021-22 season, with the addition of the Seattle Kraken in the Pacific Division. One of my favorites and brother to another of my favorites, Tony Esposito, has died.  Jaromir Jagr is still playing professional hockey! He feels obligated to continue to play for Kladno, even though he is approaching age 50. I think Gordie Howe’s last game in professional hockey, in the Independent League, was when he was 72. Pettersson is ‘hungry for revenge’ after his injury. On Tuesday, Lightning defenseman Luke Schenn got to take a real drink from the Stanley Cup, which is making its way around the world with the players (as is customary), and his brother Brayden Schenn, who won it with the St. Louis Blues in 2019, poured it for him. McDonagh recently brought the Stanley Cup to an Irish pub in Wisconsin, along with a bagpipe band. Lightning coach Cooper took pictures with Wayne Gretzky and the Cup. Bogosian sang on stage with the Stanley Cup. It’s kind of funny to track where the Cup goes and what players do with it. Shattenkirk brought the Cup home. Colton was the first one to get the Cup. Blues forward Robert Thomas surprised an Imperial, MO family of 11 whose house burned down a day after the Blues’ championship parade, and gave them all new hockey gear.

NBA:

The NBA season tipped off more than two months later than usual on 12/22/20. The Suns beat the Bucks for the Championship. The Suns were a last place team only a few seasons ago. Two-time NBA champion JR Smith is heading to college, with his eyes set on playing golf professionally. NBA All-Star Andre Drummond saves his 2-year-old son who fell into a swimming pool. The Celtics and Dennis Schroder agree on 1year/$5.9 million deal.  He had turned down a lucrative extension a year ago from the Lakers. 2021 MGM Resorts Summer League is continuing. LiAngelo Ball is playing in the League with hopes to get back in the NBA.

Horse Racing:

Okay, this news item is not about besieged Bob Baffert. Another prominent horse racing trainer, Jorge Navarro, pleaded guilty Wednesday to involvement in what US prosecutors have called a global scheme to systematically drug horses and cheat the betting public. He could face 5 years in prison at his 12/17 sentencing, and has agreed to pay $25.9 million in restitution. At least 31 trainers, veterinarians, drug distributors and others have been charged since March 2020 over alleged doping affecting races in New York, Kentucky, Florida, New Jersey, Ohio and the United Arab Emirates. Seven defendants have already pleaded guilty. One such defendant who has not pleaded guilty is Jason Servis, the trainer of Maximum Security, which appeared to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby before being disqualified for interference. That horse also won the $20 million Saudi Cup, the world’s richest horse race, before Servis was charged. His top horse was X Y Jet, who he allegedly regularly drugged with a substance he called “monkey” in March 2019 before it won the Dubai Golden Shaheen, collecting $1.5 million. The horse died of an apparent heart attack in January 2020.

Auto Racing:

In the NASCAR Cup Series of 2020, Chase Elliott won. The 2021 regular season began with the Daytona 500 on 2/14/21. NASCAR and iRacing announced an official partnership. Gordon said he is retiring from Penske at end of 2021. Six teams were fined after Pocono race. Here is the 2021 schedule and winners:

02/09/21 Busch Clash at Daytona-Kyle Busch

02/11/21 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona-Aric Almirola

02/11/21 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona-Austin Dillon

02/14/21 DAYTONA 500-Michael McDowell

02/21/21 O’Reilly Auto Parts 253 at Daytona-Christopher Bell

02/28/21 DIXIE VODKA 400 at Homestead-Miami-William Byron

03/07/21 Pennzoil 400 by Jiffy Lube at Las Vegas-Kyle Larson

03/14/21 NASCAR Cup Series Race at Phoenix-Martin Truex Jr.

03/21/21 Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta-Ryan Blaney

03/29/21 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol-Joey Logano

04/10/21 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville, VA-Martin Truex Jr.

04/18/21 Toyota Owners 400-Richmond Raceway-Bowman

04/25/21 GEICO 500-Talladega-Keselowski

05/02/21 NASCAR Cup Series at Kansas-Kyle Busch

05/09/21 NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington-Martin Truex Jr.

05/16/21 NASCAR Cup Series at Dover, Drydene 400-Alex Bowman

05/23/21 NASCAR Cup Series at COTA, EchoPark Texas GP-Chase Elliott

05/30/21 Coca-Cola 600, Charlotte Motor Speedway-Kyle Larson

06/06/21 Toyota Save Mart 350, Sonoma Raceway-Kyle Larson

06/13/21 NASCAR All-Star Open, Texas Motor Speedway-Aric Almirola

06/13/21 NASCAR All-Star Race, Texas Motor Speedway-Kyle Larson

06/20/21 Ally 400, Nashville Superspeedway-Kyle Larson

06/26/21 Pocono Organics CBD 325-Alex Bowman

06/27/21 Explore the Pocono Mountains 350-Kyle Busch

07/04/21 Jockey Made in America 250 by Kwik Trip-Chase Elliott

07/11/21 Quaker State 400 by Walmart-Kurt Busch

07/18/21 Foxwoods Resort Casino 301-Aric Almirola

08/08/21 Go Bowling at The Glen-Kyle Larson

08/15/21 Verizon 200 at the Brickyard-

Formula One began 2020 with F1 Car Launch Dates for the various teams from 2/12 through 2/15 for Renault, Racing Point, McLaren, and Ferrari.  That was followed by the Pre-Season Testing schedule.  The opening of the season coincided with the COVID-19 lockdown. Lewis Hamilton won his 7th World Title.  F1 will revert to 2pm start times in 2021. Matteo Pagliani was crowned inaugural F1 Mobile Racing Esports Champion. There will be a 23-race F1 calendar for 2021. It did not begin until 3/28/21. Here is the 2021 schedule and here are the winners:

03/28/21-Gulf Air Bahrain Grand Prix-Lewis Hamilton edged Max Verstappen

04/18/21-Italy-Verstappen edged Hamilton

05/02/21-Portugal-Hamilton beat Verstappen

05/09/21-Spain-Hamilton beat Verstappen

05/23/21-Monaco-Verstappen

06/06/21-Azerbaijan-Perez

06/20/21-France-Verstappen

06/27/21-Austria-Verstappen

07/04/21-Austria-Verstappen

07/18/21-Great Britain-Hamilton

08/01/21-Hungary-Ocon

08/29/21-Belgium-

09/05/21-Netherlands-

09/12/21-Italy-

09/26/21-Russia-

10/03/21-Singapore-

10/10/21-Japan-

10/24/21-United States

10/31/21-Mexico-

11/07/21-Brazil-

11/21/21-Australia-

12/05/21-Saudi Arabia-

12/12/21-Abu Dhabi-

IndyCar Racing circuit (Indy cars are generally considered faster than F1 car along straight lines, mostly because their races are on oval tracks, while F1 tracks are more intricate, requiring better brakes and more aerodynamic grip than Indy cars).  In 2019, Josef Newgarden came in 8th in the last race, to just edge out Simon Pagenaud for the championship. Scott Dixon was the Championship winner for 2020, edging out defending champion, Josef Newgarden. The 2021 season does not begin until mid-April. Here is the schedule and the winners:

04/18/21-Birmingham Barber Motorsports Park-Alex Palou

04/25/21-St. Petersburg Street Course-Colton Herta

05/01/21-Texas Motor Speedway Grand Prix of Texas Race 1-Scott Dixon

05/02/21-Texas Motor Speedway Grand Prix of Texas Race 2-Pato O’Ward

05/15/21-Indianapolis Motor Speedway-GP 1-Rinus Veekay

05/30/21-Indy 500-Helio Castronoves

06/12/21-Detroit Raceway on Belle Isle Race 1-Marcus Ericsson

06/13/21-Detroit Raceway on Belle Isle Race 2-Pato O’Ward

06/20/21-Road America-Alex Palou

07/04/21-Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course-Josef Newgarden

07/11/21-Toronto Exhibition Place-cancelled

08/08/21-Nashville Street Course-Marcus Ericsson

08/14/21-Indianapolis GP 2

08/21/21-Gateway Motorsports Park

09/11/21-Portland International Raceway

09/19/21-Mazda Raceway Laguna Seca

09/26/21-Streets of Long Beach

Travel News:

A lot to cover here. Demand for air travel, after surging dramatically as everyone escaped lockdowns and quarantines, has flatlined, amid delta variant surge. Now, airlines are considering requiring employees to be vaccinated. Some 75% are already vaccinated, so Delta and Southwest said they won’t require it of employees. But, we are all still flying with masks on. I just flew to Colorado and back with the mask on and I have to say it wasn’t particularly comfortable. I noticed that, after many incidents of unruly passengers, Southwest is no longer serving alcohol on flights. Let’s talk about flights, I am hearing anecdotal reports from family and friends about horrific travel plans disrupted by airlines arbitrarily cancelling flights and not offering alternatives. Some people who had direct flights wind up being delayed days. It appears to be a combination of problems for airlines, including shortage of employees (many furloughed during pandemic) in all facets of the air travel business, increased demand from travelers, causing flights to overfill (you do know that the airlines overbook, like hotels do, and expect people to cancel or not show), and bad weather nationally.  The weather has been causing major delays at hubs, which then affect connections, and ripple to cancellations. American Airlines said in a statement that its issues started with “unprecedented weather” impacting its largest hubs, setting off a snowball effect that led to delays, canceled flights, and disruptions to limited crew-member schedules. Spirit Airlines cancelled 60% of its flights on Wednesday to ‘reboot’ after a wave of computer problems caused massive disruptions, along with the summer storm season. It was so bad that the Department of Transportation is now monitoring Spirit Airlines flights.  Meanwhile, cabin crews and vendors for the airlines are being stretched thin, and any new hires on the airplane need to go through training or get recertified before taking to the air.  At the top of the list is a shortage of pilots and mechanics. One more explanation for all the disruptions is that the airlines can’t fly without planes, and they haven’t been able to bring all of their planes back on line, since they took them out of rotation early in the pandemic. As we probably all know by now, the Department of Transportation recommends booking flights earlier in the day, when you are less likely to be waiting for an incoming flight and less likely to be delayed or canceled. And if you do get canceled, you will have a whole days’ worth of rerouting options. They also recommend looking for direct flights, to avoid connection complications, try to fly on Tuesdays or Wednesdays when there is lighter flight traffic, and maybe consider taking out trip insurance coverage from Cancel For Any Reason (CFAR).

Martinique has asked tourists to leave, as French Caribbean is returning to COVID-19 lockdown. The CDC is once again rapidly adding countries to its “Do Not Travel” list because of surge in COVID-19 cases. However, the CDC and State Department have downgraded travel alerts on Tuesday for Canada following country’s reopening to vaccinated Americans. It is now Level 2: Exercise Increased Caution.  The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control has published the new weekly maps for the current COVID-19 situation and says that it’s unsafe to travel to more regions of EU countries. Rules for travelers are changing, with more travelers being required to show proof of vaccination for travel.  The EU is now weighing restrictions on American tourists, as the US State Department says avoid Europe. The US has also not lifted President Trump’s rules banning most European travelers. France has promised foreign tourists access to COVID Health Passes. The Passes are now required to visit popular tourist sites, travel across the country by train, and more. The Canadian government will soon require all air travelers and passengers on interprovincial trains to be vaccinated.

I still think if the cruise ship industry is going to recover, it’s going to have to require passengers to come aboard vaccinated. Another 27 people aboard a Carnival cruise ship have tested positive for COVID-19. That means that they were likely in contact with some 3,000 people aboard. 26 of the 27 infected were crew members. Here is the weird thing, they were all vaccinated previously. I’m hearing more and more stories from friends of crossover or landmark cases, where vaccinated people are testing positive or coming down with COVID-19. I just had two neighbors who were sick for two weeks and they had been vaccinated in March, a month before me.

Health News:  

Okay, there is a lot to cover here. I am trying to be as neutral as I can and only reporting the news items I see, and not giving my bias about vaccinations. 

As of this today (8/13), globally, over 4.3 million people have died from COVID-19.  More than 205,000,000 people have been infected with COVID-19. In the US, confirmed cases of COVID-19 have surpassed 35.3 million people, and are rising with the Delta variant and slowdown of vaccinations. Of that, US deaths from the pandemic have surpassed 619,230. The US has the most deaths from COVID-19 of any country in the world, followed by Brazil (566,896), India (430,254), Mexico (246,811), Peru (197,209), Russia (165,996), and UK (131,116). 533 people were confirmed infected at the Summer Olympics in Tokyo and not deaths reported. A new report says that some 100,000 more Americans are likely to die of COVID-19 this year. Deaths could climb even more if the hospital ERs and ICUs remain as swamped as they are now across the country.

As of Wednesday, 76.8% of adult New Yorkers had received at least one vaccine dose and 69.4% have completed their vaccine series, according to CDC. According to NBC News, unvaccinated adults are bringing COVID-19 home to their kids, after a study by pediatricians concluded those findings. In many parts of the country, where schools are about to start the new year (here in Florida, it’s next week!), many school districts and States are dealing with the issue of mandatory masking for students or home-schooling again. Focus on the fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US began this summer in low-vaccination states in the Ozarks and Deep South.  Now, mostly because of the highly contagious Delta variant, it has engulfed the entire country, with cases and hospitalizations at their highest levels since February. 38 States have transmission levels considered high by the CDC. While this wave has been largely blamed on Americans who refuse to be vaccinated, in China, local officials are being punished, blamed for failing to curb an outbreak that has spawned almost 900 symptomatic infections in less than a month. Well, about 50% of Americans are fully vaccinated, and vaccination rates are beginning to climb again, to nearly 700,000 new doses administered every day. But tens of millions of Americans are still holding out.

Meanwhile, I’m sure you have seen that the UN has admonished countries like the US and banned booster shots being given, until more of the world has access to initial vaccinations. I’m sure that I’m not the only one, anecdotally, who has had non-vaxer friends recently die from COVID-19 or vaccinated friends suddenly becoming breakout cases, testing positive for COVID-19 and feeling symptoms. It’s getting scary again. A wave of vaccine mandates is sweeping across the US, including a particularly strict indoor public spaces vaccine one in San Francisco. The Department of Health and Human Services said it would require more than 25,000 health workers, including contractors and volunteers, to receive vaccines, becoming the latest Federal agency to issue such a mandate. The Department of Veterans Affairs issued a mandate last month requiring vaccines for its 115,000 frontline workers, or lose their jobs, and has now expanded that mandate to include nearly every worker, another 245,000 people. The FDA has authorized a third dose of COVID-19 vaccines only for immunocompromised people, specifying cancer patients and organ transplant recipients. So, my asthma hasn’t gotten me on that list yet. Despite the Delta variant, many US firms’ return-to-office plans remain moving forward.  French leaders are calling for heightened vigilance amid vandalism at vaccine sites. Iran is struggling with its worst wave yet of the virus. As you know and have heard from all the conspiracy theorists, the vaccines are still technically exploratory and were fast-tracked for an emergency. The full official approval by the FDA for all of the vaccines is expected in the coming weeks. 96% of ICU beds across Texas are full of COVID-19 patients.

Animal News:

Two separate shark attacks in a one-week span on beaches near Savannah, Georgia, are somewhat unusual since the area see relatively few bites each year, according to experts. On 8/3, a lifeguard at Hilton Head Island, SC received deep cuts to the chest but is expected to survive. On 7/27, a surfing instructor was bitten at nearby Tybee Island, GA during surfing class he was teaching. The two beaches are about 18 miles apart. Scientists have come up with a new name for the habit of birds to steal animal hair, calling it Kleptotrichy. It is actually common for some species of birds to steal hair from foxes, cougars, bears, coyotes, etc. as they sleep, and then line their nests with the hair. Scientists believe that this brazen behavior may be to ward off other predators from the birds’ nests, using the sight and smell of the larger animals’ hair. Squirrels are believed to use parkour tricks in order to leap from branch to branch. Here’s something I didn’t know, despite having once been an aspiring zoologist, snake-eating spiders are surprisingly common. A hammerhead shark baby boom near Florida is hinting at a historic nursery. Scientists say finding an endangered shark nursery in the vast oceans is like finding a needle in a haystack. But, that’s what they’ve done near Miami. A new study has found that viruses can kill wasp larvae that grow inside infected caterpillars and some moths. Inuit people have reported seeing polar bears using tools to kill walruses for years, which were usually dismissed, but new research has suggested that the behavior does occur, with polar bears sometimes bludgeoning walruses to death with stones or ice. A new book, “Wild Souls” explores what humans owe animals in a human-dominated world and the ethical dilemmas of saving Earth’s endangered animals. A 93-year-old Xerces blue butterfly specimen’s DNA shows that the butterfly is a distinct species, making it the first US insect that humans drove to extinction. A new study shows that dogs tune into people in ways that even human-raised wolves do not.  Puppies outpace wolf pups at engaging with humans, even with less exposure to people, supporting the theory that domestication is wired into dogs’ brains.

Entertainment News:

Miss America pageant now has the first transgender woman contestant. Markie Post has died at age 70. She was best known for television sit-coms, Night Court, The Fall Guy, Hearts Afire, etc. Ironically, on 7/12, Charlie Robinson, also well-known for Night Court, died at age 75. My show, The Mandalorian received 24 Emmy nominations. Real estate heir Robert Durst testified on Monday at his murder trial in Los Angeles. Three-time US Olympian, Lolo Jones, 39, celebrated her ‘mid-life crisis’ in a series of sexy poolside pics, calling them ‘thirst traps’. Kevin Costner, in a rare Instagram post, reacted to the news of additional cast of Faith Hill, Tim McGraw, and Sam Elliott joining for prequel 1883 to season 4 of Yellowstone. Costner posted “welcome to the ranch.” Okay, another one I have to binge-watch to catch up! I actually wrote down the series that I binge-watched during COVID-19 pandemic and it totaled 43 series. Is that bad?  Mostly Netflix. Despite appearing to go through an exhaustive slow process of trying out many actors, actresses and celebrities as guest hosts of Jeopardy!, the show announced that Mike Richards, the show’s executive producer (and producer of Wheel of Fortune) Mike Richards will be the new host, filling the late Alex Trebek’s shoes and will be spelled occasionally by actress Mayim Bialik from Big Bang Theory (who is actually a nuclear scientist). Fans and celebrities who wanted the job are crying ‘foul’! Finally, Britney has been ‘freed’. Britney Spears’ father has agreed to finally step down from his conservatorship over her life and money. Selma Blair is opening up about her struggles with multiple sclerosis. Christina Applegate was just diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. Elton John is teaming up with Dua Lipa for “Cold Heart” remix.  RESPECT is getting rave reviews as an earnest Aretha Franklin tribute and as a showcase for Jennifer Hudson. Ashton Kutcher and Mila Kunis are actually pro-shower now. Kim Kardashian West credits Kanye with boosting her confidence.  Brendan Fraser got emotional about his Tik Tok supporters. Phish will require proof of vaccination for upcoming concerts. Dolly Parton is releasing her first novel and a companion album next year. A new “Batman” comic confirms that sidekick Robin is gay. Stevie Nicks has cancelled all her US tour dates, citing rising COVID-19 cases. Caitlyn Jenner is speaking out against current CA Governor Gavin Newsome, who is facing a Recall vote in September. She attacked him, in particular, for the states “epidemic of crime.” Jenner is running for Governor as a Republican. Just looking at Oakland’s crime, where officials have begged the Governor to send in State Police (he could send the National Guard if he wanted to as well), Car Jackings are up 95%, Homicide is up 51%, and Robberies are up 14%, versus last year.

Technology & Space News:

After Richard Branson of Virgin completed his short self-funded space trip, Jeff Bezos of Amazon followed on 7/20 with a short self-funded flight of his own. In more Jeff Bezos transportation news, his new yacht, Project 721, will be larger than the SS Titanic was!  It is 417-foot and cost $500 million.

Since we started with Branson, his yacht is a gigantic catamaran, which cost him $8 million. I may have to just change this section to “super-rich”, Elon Musk reportedly lives in a $50,000 Boxabi prefab tiny home that already has a 100,000 unit waitlist. Boeing’s troubled Starliner spacecraft must return to the factory, causing more delays.  

US News:

A woman is suing McDonald’s after complaining that a cheeseburger ad was so irresistible it caused her to break her fast during Lent. USA Today reports that more couples want to de-gender their weddings, in a growing trend. I know you’ve heard that the Unemployment Rate is going down from President Biden, but what that ignores is that many people no longer qualify for Unemployment or have just stopped working, reducing the workforce available. A new study has found that the pandemic forced more older workers to retire, often before they were financially ready, by as much as an additional 1.7 million Americans. When unemployed, to be counted and paid, you have to show that you are ‘trying’ to get a job. But, if you are no longer trying to get a job or outside the window of unemployment benefits, people fall off the map. NY Governor Andrew Cuomo, accused by 11 women of sexual harassment or assault in civil lawsuits, despite his daily denials, finally announced his resignation on Tuesday, scheduled to hand over the rains to the Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul on 8/22. Cuomo has yet to be criminally charged. The media, particularly MSNBC, who saw Cuomo as a hero, has now turned on him and actually seems irritated with him. The investigation into the allegations against Cuomo and possibly his Impeachment process will continue, as there were no deals made, per Hochul. An Appeals Court has upheld the murder conviction of ex-Dallas police officer Amber Guyger, who killed her neighbor, Botham Jean in his own home. A Federal judge has kept the CDC moratorium against evictions, but says it’s illegal. The moratorium was imposed by the Biden administration last week. If you are applying for a job, experts recommend that you get vaccinated. A second round of Chile Tax Credit checks has hit families’ bank accounts. Federal data shows fewer families struggled to pay their bills after the first, July, round of the new monthly checks.

Bankruptcy:

Nothing to report today.

International News:

Sorry for the upcoming rant, but my US Army Green Berets came home only six weeks ago from East Afghanistan, where they attempted to pack up 20 years of US gear for the massive pullout out of Afghanistan, with the backdrop of the Afghan Army and its Commando unit stepping up the defend Afghanistan against the Taliban. The US cold-heartedly did not speed up the process of citizenship for the Afghan interpreters or their families, who worked with the US soldiers, leaving many to likely be executed as traitors by the Taliban. In short order, news reports every day indicate that the Taliban is over-running the Afghan army and has now seized some 65% of Afghanistan. Many of the Afghan army simply surrendered and also surrendered the US weaponry that they had been given by the US, including battle helicopters. There are concerns that many women have been punished for having their hair showing under Sharia law, others have been ‘married off’ to various Taliban fighters, and others have fled to Kabul. Kabul is the largest city in Afghanistan and the last of the large cities that has not yet fallen to the Taliban. As an example of the ineptitude of the planning of this mass withdrawal of the US, that harkens back to the mass withdrawal of the Soviet Union before (which may have contributed to the 1991 breaking up of the Soviet Union), the US now has to send some 3,500 US soldiers back to Kabul so that the US Embassy can be safely evacuated. The Pentagon says those troops will arrive Sunday. Shouldn’t someone have thought about that when they planned this? Anyway, without even going into whether the US military should have been there in the first place 20 years ago, I’m just baffled by the government’s apparent surprise that the Taliban is taking over and doing it so quickly that they realize they have to send more troops over just to get the Embassy evacuated. And, no, I don’t know how else they could have done it and I’m not providing anything in the way of an alternate solution. However, I recognize that should the country or most of the country fall under Taliban rule, it will likely have further military implications for the neighboring countries, which includes some of our allies. Meanwhile, the US Embassy in Afghanistan has told staff to destroy sensitive materials. The Taliban now control 50% of the countries’ provincial capitals. The UK’s former hub in Afghanistan has been taken by the Taliban. Siberia is struggling with record wildfires. The Indonesian Army has finally stopped “virginity tests” on females. UK Police say that the man who went on a rare shooting spree there and killed 5, including a 3-year-old child, had a gun license. The suspect was found dead at the scene. Algerian officials are probing a mob lynching of a man accused of setting fires that devastated the region. Greece is also suffering from wildfires. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report on the state of knowledge of climate change and its effects.

Florida:

.

The children returned to school in Florida this week, however it was with a mixture of mandated masks and no masks. 4 Broward County educators died from COVID-19 within a 24-hour period. At least 3 of the teachers were unvaccinated. The news comes just days after Broward County’s school board voted to defy the Governor’s order and require students to wear masks in school. Florida Governor DeSantis, on 7/30, banned mandates requiring students to wear masks. The American Academy of Pediatrics and the CDC recommend that K-12 students and staff returning for in-person learning should wear masks as part of a “layered prevention strategy”, especially since children under 12 do not yet qualify for vaccination. Unfortunately, Florida has been breaking records lately for new COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. Florida is planning new COVID-19 antibody treatment “strike teams” which can be mobilized quickly to facilities with severe cases. I keep hearing anecdotally from friends in the medical industry about some particular drug that can be administered in the first few days of the virus and wipe out almost all of the symptoms, but it is not approved by the FDA.  440 Palm Beach County students have already been forced into quarantine, just days into the new school year.

Jokes and Such:

Okay, I decided that since you readers are only going to give me dirty jokes that would just get me in trouble, in the context of distanced learning and your kids likely at home on the computer, I would provide you some CLEAN jokes that you can share with them. That’s just how I am J

A Duck walks into a bar

“Got any bread?”

“No”

“Got any bread?”

“NO”

“Got any bread?”

“NO! if you ask me again, I’ll nail your bill to the bar!”

“Got any nails?”

“No.”

“Got any bread?”

I was sitting in a Chinese restaurant, thinking about how duckling means little duck. So, I cancelled my order of dumplings.

Three men die in a car accident and go to Heaven. At the pearly gates, Saint Peter says, you may enter, but don’t step on any of the ducks. Well, it turned out there were ducks all over the place and it was almost impossible to avoid stepping on them.

After just a few hours, despite his best efforts, one man stepped on a duck. Saint Peter strolled over with a heavy chain and an extremely ugly woman and said “I told you.” He then chained the two together for eternity.

The next day, despite his best efforts, the second man stepped on a duck. Once again, Saint Peter strolled over with a heavy chain and an extremely ugly woman and said “I told you.” He then chained the two together for eternity.

The third man managed to avoid stepping on ducks for 11 months. Then, one day he sees Saint Peter walking towards him with a heavy chain and a gorgeous woman. He chains them together for eternity without a word.

The man looks at the woman and acclaims, “what did I do to deserve such an honor?!?”

The woman answers, “well, I don’t know about you, but I stepped on a duck.”

Repo Commentary-07/15/21

I have designed and crafted an 11-week state-of-the-art virtual training/e education course on the Fundamentals of Repo. You can learn more about the course here:  https://www.pierpoint.info/courses/the-fundamentals-of-repo

I am NOT RETIRED from the Securities Finance industry.

  • I have completed the above Pierpoint Finance Academy course on Repo Fundamentals. Our new normal of e-Learning.
  • I am sharing my opinion and expertise with the industry in articles in various periodicals. 
  • I am consulting with an electronic trading platform, potentially for Repo.\
  • I am participating as the Repo expert for the Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC)- training/networking/brainstorming/question-answering group, Pierpoint Alpha Community (PAC), and subsequent forums.

Kidwell Consultants, LLC is available FOR HIRE as a consultant. I’m actually not that busy (for me) at the moment.  So, if you need my Securities Financing expertise or access to my vast network of about 9000 clients, call my mobile (646-753-1300), email (jeff@kidwellconsultants.com) or (jeffkidwell82@gmail.com), or hit me up on LinkedIn.  

My Repo Commentary is posted FREE (it’s actually always been free) on my website:  www.repocommentary.com. It also pops up on LinkedIn, the Global Investors Group (ISF Magazine) website, and on CentralBanks.com as an op-ed. I am interested in entertaining you and taking your mind off the pressures you are under. Since its inception in 1982, the Repo Commentary does not represent the views of any of my former firms and reflects only my opinion and includes only publicly available information.  I make a strong effort to attribute any quotes or thoughts that are not my own, I do not make any marketing spiels, and I really am more interested  in entertaining (70-80%) you than boring (20-30%) you with too much market info. You have more than enough stress already!  Feel free, as always, to send me information, comments or pictures, to make it better! 

Holidays or Events (07/15):

  • Get To Know Your Customers Day
  • Gummi Worm Day
  • I Love Horses Day
  • National Be A Dork Day
  • National Give Something Away Day
  • National Pet Fire Safety Day
  • National Respect Canada Day
  • National Tapioca Day
  • Orange Chicken Day
  • Saint Swithin’s Day
  • Bon Festival (Kanto region, Japan)
  • Elderly Man Day (Kiribati) naturally, right after my birthday lol
  • Festival of Santa Rosalia (Palermo, Sicily)
  • Sultan’s Birthday (Brunei Darussalam)

Some Famous People Born on (07/15):

  • 980-Ichijo, Japanese emperor
  • 1606-Rembrandt, Dutch painter and etcher
  • 1850-Frances Xavier Cabrini, Italian-American nun and saint
  • 1911-Edward Shackleton, Baron Shackleton, English geographer and politician
  • 1929-Ian Stewart, Scottish race driver
  • 1935-Alex Karras, American football player, wrestler, and actor
  • 1938-Barry Goldwater, Jr, American lawyer and politician
  • 1944-Millie Jackson, American singer-songwriter
  • 1945-Jan Michael Vincent, American actor
  • 1946-Linda Rondstadt, American singer-songwriter, producer, and actress
  • 1946-Hassanal Bolkiah, Sultan of Brunei
  • 1951-Jesse Ventura, American wrestler, actor, and politician
  • 1952-Marky Ramone, American drummer and songwriter (The Ramones)
  • 1956-Barry Melrose, Canadian ice hockey player, coach, and sportscaster
  • 1960-Kim Alexis, American fashion model
  • 1961-Forest Whitaker, American actor
  • 1963-Brigitte Nielsen, Danish-Italian actress

I would like to thank everyone for you overwhelming amount of texts, calls, LinkedIn messages, emails, Facebook posts, and FB Messenger messages, wishing me a Happy Birthday on 07/11. I was actually a little blue, as I woke up, but you all took me out of my funk and made my birthday very special. I appreciate it and feel blessed to have you all in my life.

Daily Weird Facts:

For those who romanticize a burial at sea, the company Eternal Reefs mixes the cremated remains of a person with concrete to create a “pearl” onto which loved ones can etch personal messages, handprints or mementos. The pearl is then encased in a “reef ball” that is dropped into the sea, where it provides a new coral reef habitat for fish and other sea life, completing the ‘circle of life’.

Daily Affirmation/Thought/Pun/Quote:

“Never apologize for having high standards. People who want to be in your life will rise up and meet them.”—Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Currency and Commodity Markets:

Oil prices closed at:

$74.34/barrel on 10/5/18

$47.66/barrel on 12/23/18

$48.63 on 01/07/19 

$73.77/barrel on 4/29

$58.81/barrel on 1/17/20

$35.92/barrel on 3/11

$27.15/barrel on 3/18

$24.90/barrel on 4/01

$31.80/barrel on 4/12

$28.31/barrel on 4/17

$20.03/barrel on 4/27

$35.69/barrel on 5/20

$50.70/barrel on 01/04/21

$66.34/barrel on 03/05

$61.30/barrel on 04/01

$63.68/barrel on 05/13

$72.25/barrel on 06/15

$74.86/barrel on 07/02, just where it was on 10/5/18 at the top of the list. What a roller coaster!

$72.30/barrel on 07/15

The price of Oil appears to have leveled off at these highs. The price of gasoline at my West Palm Beach station held steady in the past 2 weeks, at $2.98/gallon. However, gasoline prices have been rising faster in surrounding areas (up to $3.69/gallon) and in other parts of the country. 

One USD versus the Yen was trading at (these are all around Repo Commentary dates). I did decide to trim this running list to just a few dates:

104.80 on 02/07/20

99.23 on 03/11/20

103.55 on 12/16/20

110.63 on 04/01/21

108.61 on 04/28/21

110.05 on 06/15/21

111.44 on 07/02/21

109.94 on 07/15/21

One Euro was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.1426 

12/06/19 at $1.1688

03/11/20 at $1.1937

05/04/20 at $1.0903

12/16/20 at $1.2196

02/04/21 at $1.2625

04/01/21 at $1.1774

04/28/21 at $1.2123

07/02/21 at $1.1822

07/15/21 at $1.1806

One British Pound was trading on:

12/24/18 at $1.2655 

12/06/19 at $1.3819

02/07/20 at $1.3574

03/24/20 at $1.2231

12/16/20 at $1.3494

02/16/21 at $1.3903

06/15/21 at $1.4083

07/02/21 at $1.3743

07/15/21 at $1.3819

One USD versus the CAD at:

1.3442 on 12/24/18

1.2530 on 12/06/19

1.2390 on 01/17/20

1.3540 on 03/18/20

1.2752 on 12/16/20

1.2186 on 06/15/21

1.2417 on 07/02/21

1.2539 on 07/15/21

With data showing reemerging inflation and the Fed’s concern about inflation, precious metals, a historic hedge against inflation may become a popular topic again soon. Interestingly, the number of people in the US invested in Gold and Silver is far less than those invested in Equities.  In fact, while about 50% of Americans invest, only 10.8% of the population owns Gold and only about 11.6% of the country owns Silver. Gold prices:

10/02/19 $1,498.70/ounce 

03/11/20 $1,641.00/ounce

07/27/20 a record $1,944.71/ounce

11/30/20 $1,774.00 

01/04/21 a new record $1,948.00

03/05/21 $1,698.70

04/28/21 $1,782.20

06/15/21 $1,859.90

07/02/21 $1,789.00

07/15/21 $1,828.00

Bitcoin was trading at (around Repo Commentary Dates):

$8,185.21 on 7/25/18 

$6,350.00 on 10/5/18

$3,774.97 on 12/24/18

$3,598.90 on 01/16/19 

$3,421.10 on 02/06/19 

$8,100.00 on 05/16/19

$7,215.79 on 05/17/19

$11,919.30 on 06/25/19

$9,790.37 on 07/24/19

$10,183.90 on 09/10/19

$8,235.46 on 10/02/19

$7,470.41 on 12/06/19
$8,876.87 on 01/17/20

$9,793.18 on 02/07/20

$7,871.60 on 03/11/20

$3,867.00 on 03/13/20

$5,216.64 on 03/18/20

$6,728.03 on 03/24/20

$7,748.29 on 04/27/20

$8,775.36 on 05/04/20 pre halving event

$9,794.46 on 06/04/20 post halving event

$10,849.00 on 07/27/20

$15,160.90 on 11/10/20

$19,411.50 on 11/30/20

$20,665.10 on 12/16/20

$31,592.20 on 01/04/21

$36,607.50 on 02/04/21

$48,526.90 on 02/16/21

$58,093.71 on 02/21/21

$43,170.01 on 02/28/21

$49,207.43 on 03/05/21

$58,979.60 on 04/01/21

$63,237.00 on 04/15/21

$54,886.50 on 04/28/21

$54,242.00 on 05/12/21

$39,804.90 on 06/15/21

$33,039.30 on 07/02/21

$31,280.00 on 07/15/21

After rebounding in 2019 dramatically since the beginning of the year, although certainly not to its $19,000 high, Bitcoin hit a wall at the beginning of the Summer of 2019, then rallied during the Summer, and tumbled again in Q4, and had rallied in early in 2020.  It then gave up all of those 2020 gains with the COVID-19 contagion. On 3/13/20, it had cratered at $3,867.  It rallied sharply in the last few weeks before the ‘halving event’ on 5/12/20, its 3rd halving event.  It exploded in early 2021, as new corporate investors (including Elon Musk) jumped in. On 4/15/21, it hit a high of $63,237.  It has since made almost a 50% downward correction, falling back to early 2021 levels recently, wiping out all 2021 gains. It continues to slip further. It’s beginning to have an inverse relationship to Gold, like bonds tend to do with equities. The SEC has decided to put off a decision on WisdomTree’s proposed bitcoin ETF and requested public comments on the application. The SEC wants views on whether the ETF will be vulnerable to manipulation. Fidelity Digital Assets is increasing staff by 70%. Fed’s Powell favors Fed-issued central bank digital currency over multiple private cryptocurrencies or stablecoins.  

Brexit:

Another deadline has just passed, June 30, 2021, when most EU citizens had to apply to live permanently in the UK as settled residents. Over 6 million EU citizens have applied to settle in post-Brexit UK.  Post-Brexit talks on London access to EU have stalled. Brexit and COVID-19 have caused a huge jump in pay for lorry (truck) drivers. A lorry driver shortage is threatening the German confectionery giant Haribo, in getting their supplies of Goldbears and Tangfastics to UK shops. The EU has postponed ban on British meat sales in Northern Ireland. The import protection for the UK steel industry was set to expire, but the UK made a last-ditch extension. New UK law, the Subsidy Control Bill, will replace EU-wide rules on government assistance to firms. The mobile phone operator EE is reintroducing Europe roaming charges for new UK customers to use their phones in Europe. Many think that the new Northern Ireland Protocol has broken the union of the United Kingdom. 

Global Financial News:

Prices paid by US consumers surged in June 2021 by the most since 2008, blowing by all the forecasts and challenging the Federal Reserve and its commitment to monetary easing and support for the economy. The core, without volatile food and energy components, rose by 4.5% versus June 2020, the largest advance since November 1991! Morgan Stanley beat earnings expectations with $14.8 billion in revenue in Q2 2021. Wells Fargo earnings for Q2 2021 also beat economists’ estimates, with a $6 billion profit versus last year’s $3.5 billion profit for the same period. Of course, some of that was due to the return of $1.6 billion it has set aside in 2020 to cover loan defaults. BNY Mellon and US Bancorp also exceeded analysts’ expectations. Goldman Sachs followed its earnings announcement by issuing $5.5 billion in new bonds. The borrowing will facilitate Goldman’s expansion of its prime brokerage business. A Bloomberg Intelligence survey shows that virtually all of the largest US asset-management firms now offer and ETF or have plans to do so. Standing currently at $488.5 billion, ETF inflows this year are well on track to break the $497 billion all-time record set in 2020. BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has contested the widely held assertion that the current bout of inflation is temporary, and added that he expects the Fed will be obliged to take steps to curb the trend. He expects that the rate will climb to around 3.5% or 4.0%. Financial Times reports that analysts believe the main drivers of this current inflation are used car prices, energy costs, home rentals and spending on travel and entertainment. Pretty much a breakout surge from COVID-19 lockdown. UBS said that it is incorporating the open-technology FlexTrade order management system with its new US outsourced trading desk. They hope to lean on FlexTrade’s track record with buy-side trading desks to extend their global outsourced execution to additional client segments. India’s central bank has banned Mastercard from issuing any new credit or debit cards to domestic customers for an indefinite period, following bans that it already placed on American Express and Diners Club. The central bank says that Mastercard failed to comply with the requirement that payment data must be stored exclusively in India. Inflation fears could cause problems for ESG investing, as rising energy costs may prompt calls for governments to curb those costs by making supplies, any supplies, more plentiful. So far, Europe has emerged as the major force globally in sustainable finance. For European issuers, $1 out of every $5 raised so far in 2021 has been tied to borrowers’ performance on environment, social and governance (ESG) criteria. 

US Market News:

At levels above the magic 30,000, the Dow is now well above its pre-pandemic peak of 29,569. The specter of inflation and potential for future Fed tightening spooked the stock market, after the FOMC meeting announcement on 6/16/21. However, the resilient stock market recovered and continued its rally.  

Here are the latest DJIA closes, just to demonstrate the massive volatility (this is the next list I intend to trim to just important dates). We closed at a record high yesterday.:

07/14/21  34,933.23

07/01/21  34,633.53 

05/12/21  33,587.66

03/31/21  32,981.55

01/13/21   31,060.47

12/31/20   30,606.48

12/01/20   29,823.92

11/09/20   29,157.97

07/24/20   26,469.89

07/22/20   27,005.84

06/26/20   25,015.55

06/08/20   27,572.44

6/03/20     26,269.89

5/27/20     25,548.27

4/17/20     24,242.49

3/23/20    18,591.93

3/03/20     25,917.41

2/12/20     29,551.42 record high

S&P 500 has closed on:

10/5/18 at 2,885.58 

12/26/18 at 2,467.70 

12/06/19 at 3,145.91

02/07/20 at 3,335.27 down 10.51 from new all-time high

03/23/20 at 2,237.40

12/15/20 at 3,647.49

01/13/21 at 3,809.84

02/03/21 at 3,830.17

02/16/21 at 3,923.59

03/05/21 at 3,841.94

03/31/21 at 3,972.89

05/12/21 at 4,063.04

07/01/21 at 4,319.94

07/14/21 at 4,374.30

S&P has regained everything it lost since 3/11 pandemic announcement, and more, breaking above the high set in early September 2020.  It set a record on 12/8 of 3,702.25, then backed off, then shot higher again to a new record 02/16.  It has continued to be up at new record highs. 

Nasdaq closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 7,788.45

12/26/18 at 6,554.36

12/06/19 at 8,656.07

02/07/20 at 9,555.96 down 16.19 from new all-time high 

03/23/20 at 6,860.67

06/04/20 at 9,615.81 don’t look now, but we have set a new record high, above the previous high of 2/07/20!

12/15/20 at 12.505.06

01/13/21 at 13,128.95 

02/03/21 at 13,610.54

02/16/21 at 14,047.50  new record high

03/05/21 at 12,920.15

03/31/21 at 13,246.87

05/12/21 at 13,031.68

07/01/21 at 14,522.38

07/14/21 at 14,644.95

The US Treasury market had seen yields rise slightly ahead of the 06/16/21 FOMC meeting. Then, the announcement caused a massive shift in the entire curve, with the front-end yields dramatically rising (2years and 3years), and the back-end yields dramatically falling (7years, 10years, and 30years). 

2 YEAR NOTES closed on (trimmed list):

10/5/18 at 2.88%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.61%

02/06/20 at 1.44%

03/11/20 at 0.50%

03/17/20 at 0.47%

03/23/20 at 0.28% 

05/10/20 at 0.16% 

07/24/20 at 0.14% 

12/15/20 at 0.11% wow really low!

01/04/21 at 0.11%

01/13/21 at 0.14%

02/03/21 at 0.11%

02/16/21 at 0.11%

03/05/21 at 0.14%

03/31/21 at 0.16%

05/12/21 at 0.16%

07/01/21 at 0.25% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.23%

3 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 2.99%

12/18/18 at 2.64%

01/07/19 at 2.47% (inverted to 2years)

12/06/19 at 1.64%

02/06/20 at 1.43%

03/11/20 at 0.58%

03/17/20 at 0.54%

03/23/20 at 0.31% wow!

05/10/20 at 0.21%

07/24/20 at 0.17% wow!

11/09/20 at 0.25%

12/15/20 at 0.18% wow!

01/04/21 at 0.16% record low!

01/13/21 at 0.22%

02/16/21 at 0.17%

03/05/21 at 0.32%

03/31/21 at 0.35%

05/12/21 at 0.35%

07/01/21 at 0.47% wow!

07/14/21 at 0.44%

5 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.07%

12/18/18 at 2.65%

12/06/19 at 1.67%

02/07/20 at 1.45%

03/11/20 at 0.66%

03/17/20 at 0.56%

03/23/20 at 0.38% 

03/26/20 at 0.51%

03/31/20 at 0.37%

07/24/20 at 0.27% wow!

12/15/20 at 0.37%

01/04/21 at 0.36%

01/13/21 at 0.48%

02/03/21 at 0.46%

02/16/21 at 0.42%

03/05/21 at 0.79%

03/31/21 at 0.92%

05/12/21 at 0.87%

07/01/21 at 0.89% not much increase

07/14/21 at 0.80%

7 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.18%

12/18/18 at 2.74%

12/06/19 at 1.78%

02/06/20 at 1.56%

03/11/20 at 0.78%

03/17/20 at 0.91%

03/23/20 at 0.63% 

03/26/20 at 0.72%

03/31/20 at 0.55%

07/24/20 at 0.44% record low

11/09/20 at 0.70% back to near pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.64%

01/04/21 at 0.64%

01/13/21 at 0.80%

02/03/21 at 0.81%

02/16/21 at 0.76%

03/05/21 at 1.23%

03/31/21 at 1.40%

05/12/21 at 1.34%

07/01/21 at 1.24% 

07/14/21 at 1.11%

10 YEAR NOTES closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.23%

12/18/18 at 2.82%

09/09/19 at 1.83%

10/01/19 at 1.65% 

12/06/19 at 1.84% 

02/06/20 at 1.65% 

03/11/20 at 0.82% wow!

03/17/20 at 1.02% 

03/23/20 at 0.76% and back down again

07/24/20 at 0.59% record low

11/09/20 at 0.96% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 0.92%

01/04/21 at 0.93%

01/13/21 at 1.10%

02/03/21 at 1.15%

02/16/21 at 1.09%

03/05/21 at 1.56%

03/31/21 at 1.74%

05/12/21 at 1.69%

07/01/21 at 1.48%

07/14/21 at 1.37% 

30 YEAR BONDS closed on:

10/5/18 at 3.40%

12/18/18 at 3.07%

07/24/19 at 2.58%

09/10/19 at 2.11%

12/06/19 at 2.29%

02/06/20 at 2.11%

03/11/20 at 1.30%

03/17/20 at 1.63% way up!

03/23/20 at 1.33% back down

07/24/20 at 1.23% record low

11/09/20 at 1.73% back to pre-COVID level

12/15/20 at 1.65%

01/04/21 at 1.66%

01/13/21 at 1.82%

02/03/21 at 1.92%

02/16/21 at 1.84%

03/05/21 at 2.28%

03/31/21 at 2.41%

05/12/21 at 2.40%

07/01/21 at 2.07% dramatic drop almost below magic 2%

07/14/21 at 1.98%

Housing News:

Fannie Mae forecasts that “housing costs could eventually boost inflation by as much as 2% by the end of next year, though the effects could be felt sooner.” Ironically, the soaring housing market may wind up derailing the economic recovery, as Susan Estes points out.  Remember regulations and their unintended consequences in OUR market. Well, apparently the banned evictions ruling for the pandemic has caused a Hamptons home owner to not be able to enter her premises or remove the renter’s furniture. Meanwhile, her furniture is sitting in the garage of the home, right in front of her car, that she now can’t use. The renter apparently has been unable to find a job. Maybe the odd part, she is a real estate agent. Forbearance exits are speeding up, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, down to 3.76% as of 7/4/21. A shareholder sued Rocket Mortgage, the Detroit-based behemoth, for allegedly misleading disclosures to conceal adverse market conditions. Purchases of second homes declined in June. President Biden is renewing his push for housing in his new $3.5 trillion Infrastructure Plan. Mortgage Applications jumped 16% for the week ending 7/9/21, after several consecutive weeks of drops. The Mortgage Bankers Association points to increased refinancing as mortgage rates dipped again. However, the prior week’s report showed a drop in mortgage applications to the lowest level since January 2020. Let’s look at those official rates (per HousingWire.com):

  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances (now $548,250 or less) decreased to 3.09% from 3.15%.
  • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (above $548,250) decreased to 3.16% from 3.20%.
  • The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed rate mortgages decreased to 2.48% from 2.52%. 

Repo/Securities Financing News:                              

At the 6/16 FOMC meeting announcement, the Fed could have increased the rate on the RRP to 0.05%, which might have forced GC repo rates higher to compete with the Fed paying cash providers 5bp more. However, it wouldn’t have solved the present dislocation that there isn’t enough collateral for the cash in the market and the RRP is a disintermediation of the broker/dealers with their own typical cash providers. Yet, the Fed chose to raise the RRP by 5bp. The second possible solution, to taper QE, was probably the logical choice, but would be the least friendly to other markets and perhaps to the public. However, the Fed, while not beginning the taper, decided to hint at it coming. This could solve the collateral shortage problem. The third possible solution, was to adjust the Interest On Excess Reserves (IOER) rate higher, which would in turn raise the average Fed Funds rate, which would in turn raise the GC Repo rate, since all three products compete with each other for that elusive cash. The Fed also chose to raise the IOER rate by 5bp. Some market analysts actually mentioned this as a major influence on the subsequent fall in the equity market, saying that cash left the equity market to take advantage of IOER. Really? I doubt that had much of a factor at all. I think the move out of Equities was due to several other reasons, including the rising competitive yield in US Treasuries and other Fixed Income products, the warning of future Fed tightenings in the Fed statement, and the specters of inflation and nagging unemployment discussed by the Fed in its statement. So, these are monetary policy concerns and economic fundamentals concerns, which made the equity market jittery, not the IOER tweak. We’ve got another FOMC meeting coming up, so we may see some more Fed rhetoric and tweaks coming. One thing that I missed and my friend Scott Skrym brings to my attention, in the fine print of the FOMC minutes, was mention for the first time in a long time of the Standing Repo Facility (SRF). Basically, the SRF rate would be set at the top of the Fed Funds target range (currently that would be 0.25%), would be available at first only to the Primary Dealers, eventually extended to approved counterparties. There are some problems with the rate and the potential flood of collateral the Fed could receive on a daily basis, the opposite of the amount of cash the Fed is currently getting dumped on it on a daily basis. It also calls into question the term that the Fed has avoided in the 39 years that I’ve been in the industry, and that is to become “Lender of Last Resort”. I’m sure we will hear much more about this in the future from the Fed.

Tom Daniels has left his post of Head of Securities Lending business development for BNY Mellon, after 14 years. CloudMargin is collaborating with Ivno now. LCH has opened up buyside clearing access on RepoClear. Insight Investment became the first fund manager to transact cleared repo on behalf of a UK defined benefit pension fund. DataLend (part of EquiLend) says global securities lending revenue is up 17% in the first half of 2021. There have been a lot of hot stocks and movement into emerging markets. ICMA has a new chief executive, as Bryan Pascoe takes over for Martin Scheck. South Korea lifted their short-selling ban in May, leading to over $130 million being traded through Tru Technologies’ securities finance platform there. ISLA is meeting its objective to deliver a minimum viable securities lending common domain model for market participants by mid-2021. The European Commission has issued an Interim Report on CSDR and is considering a REFIT legislative review of CSDR. Sharegain has released a new platform for real-time borrowing of securities electronically. Deutsche Borse is extending digital asset offering with its acquisition of Crypto Finance. The UAE-based equity clearing house, Dubai Clear, has become a member of CCP12. Marie Stringer has joined Pirum as client services team leader. Finadium has completed its 7th survey of 37 products across 22 firms in collateral management technology, leading to an analysis of market trends in Securities Finance Monitor. 

Happy 20th Anniversary to Eurex Repo, part of the Deutsche Borse family, and a critical element of the European Financial Markets.  Congratulations to my good friend, Guido Stroemer, co-founder and CEO of HQLAx, after an infusion of capital and partnership with JPMorgan Chase. Guido, I’m still checking my mail for one of your stylish sleeveless suits! I don’t know if you caught my partner, Roy Zimmerhansl’s “Fundamentals of Securities Lending” on Saturday’s livestreaming. Very informative.  This sounds like something I would have worked on, as Eurex announces that it is expanding buy-side access to cleared repo business through its ISA Direct product. This will broaden its availability to a greater range of market participants. Hana Bank became the first South Korean bank to clear at LCH ForexClear. Goldman Sachs is adding to its securities finance team.  

Securities Finance Industry Conferences

This section is a work in progress. I am searching new sources of virtual conferences, networking, and symposiums, rather than just continuing to run the 25-30 annual physical conferences for the industry, many of which are no longer being held, because of the pandemic.  

  • ICMA Fintech Week London:  7/12/21-7/16/21, Virtual.
  • HIS Markit Securities Finance Q2 2021 Webinar: 7/14/21, Virtual.
  • 25th IMN/AFME Global ABS 2021:  9/27/21-9/28/21, London.
  • ICMA/ERCC Professional Repo Market and Collateral Management Workshop 2021:  9/27/21-10/5/21, Virtual.
  • 37th Annual RMA Securities Finance & Collateral Management Conference:  10/18/21-10/21/21, will be in person (first time since PASLA was cancelled), Aventura, FL. I have not missed an RMA, and it’s in Florida, so…
  • FundForum Internnational/Clearstream: 10/20/21-10/22/21, Monaco.
  • 2021 RMA Annual Risk Management Conference:  10/25/21-10/28/21, TBA.
  • Finadium Rates & Repo 2021:  November 10, 2021, TBA if Virtual or on location in NYC.
  • 27th IMN ABS East 2021:  12/13/21-12/15/21, Miami Beach, FL.

Federal Reserve News:

The Fed Funds rate, which is still the target rate of Federal Reserve monetary policy and changes to which are made by and announced by the FOMC at regularly scheduled meetings, is currently set at 0.00-0.25% (remember, the Fed has been using a target ‘range’ for a while). The Federal Reserve posts an Effective Fed Funds Rate (EFFR).  The Overnight Bank Funding Rate (OBFR), is also published by the NY Fed to capture the volume-weighted median of overnight federal funds transactions, Eurodollar transactions, and the domestic deposits reported by banks. 

The next FOMC meetings are:  07/28/21, 09/22/21, 11/03/21, and 12/15/21. All of the meetings are two-day meetings. I have listed the 2nd day. However, as we saw on 3/3/20, the FOMC can call emergency meetings at any time, even on weekends, especially during the pandemic crisis we are in.  

The Federal Reserve’s Reverse Repo Facility (RRP), which has over 300 approved participants (mostly banks, GSEs, and MMFs) is used as a tool by the Federal Reserve, along with its Fed Funds target-setting monetary policy, and IOER for depository institutions, to help control short-term interest rates. The Fed is currently only repoing out US Treasuries from its portfolio and typically only Overnight.

The Fed Chairman Powell is feeling heat from all sides, as inflation spikes. He was brought before a House panel to explain policy and the economy. He is dismissing claims of Fed complacency on inflation. He said he still expects inflation to ease. While the ECB is accelerating its plans for digital euro project, one Fed official is throwing cold water on US CBDC plans. The Vice Chair says “We do not need to fear Stablecoins.” The Fed has been weighing a digital dollar, as cryptocurrency hits a “critical point”. The Fed’s balance sheet is expected by some analysts to exceed $9 trillion, after it starts reducing its monthly asset purchases. It is already past $8 trillion. 

Earthquakes and Volcanoes:

Here are significant earthquakes for just two days. Much quieter than it has been previously:

07/14 5.1 south of the Fiji Islands

07/14 4.5 ESE of Mawlaik, Myanmar

07/14 4.8 ESE of Laikit, Laikit II, Indonesia

07/14 4.6 13km SSE of Hualien City, Taiwan

07/14 5.0 43km W of Tianpeng, China

07/14 4.6 97km SW of Bengkulu, Indonesia

07/14 5.3 166km SW of Merizo Village, Guam

07/14 4.8 32km ENE of Chicureo Abajo, Chile

07/13 4.8 153km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

07/13 5.0 north of Ascension Island

07/13 4.9 146km ESE of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia

07/13 5.1 42km NNW of Neiafu, Tonga

Scientists have found that invisible bursts of electricity from volcanoes signal explosive eruptions. Did you know that there are currently 43 volcanoes with continuing eruptions active in the world right now? I guess I can understand this piece of news, but then again, I’m not sure whether it’s worth the risk. Researchers say that the brine released by the magma beneath volcanoes is a potential “liquid ore” containing metals such as gold, copper, and lithium. Some of those precious metals have seen their value increase around the world, as companies pursue the materials needed to produce batteries. However, extracting that liquid ore may prove to be very difficult and dangerous. I get the concept, that it may be easier to allow the Earth to disgorge the precious metals to companies, rather than have the companies go through the laborious process of digging or mining for them. 

Weather:

Some parts of the nation are still seeing record high temperatures, with Las Vegas ringing in at 117 degrees and Death Valley at 130 degrees (it reported a low of 107.7 degrees overnight, the highest overnight low ever recorded in North America), as the heatwave out West continues, fueling not only the Climate Change scientists, but also some major wildfires again. There are now 55 active large wildfires burning at this time, with the largest and most uncontained in Oregon. Over the weekend, in the US West, some 24 million people were under heat alerts, more than 100 people died due to heat (one could call a mass casualty event), and across 12 states, the fires burned 768,307 acres. Several pockets of thunderstorms and heavy rain have been pestering the Interior Northeast, northern Plains, Southwest, and here in Southern Florida. 

Let’s go back to the subject of ‘rain’. This has been gnawing at me for a while, especially since Florida has already begun its August pattern of early in the day 90s and oppressive humidity, followed by afternoon thunderstorms. I wanted to focus on the “Chance of Rain” enigma. I think most of my life I thought when a meteorologist (or a “weather presenter” like Al Roker) says, “the Chance of Rain is 30% today, but increases to 40% tomorrow,” that they were saying There is a 30% chance of you seeing rain here in West Palm Beach and tomorrow those odds increase (so you better golf today!). it turns out that that simple phrase is far from simple and has different interpretations. TikTok recently circulated a video that claimed a 30% chance of rain meant that there would only be rain in 30% of the viewing area. How are you supposed to know how far a viewing area extends for a local TV station, the radio, or a cellphone app? It turns out that the TikTok video is incorrect. However, NOAA’s Weather Program Office said that Probability of Precipitation (PoP) is very difficult to explain. This stems from the fact that in their study, they found that there are 5 different commonly used definitions for PoP among meteorologists themselves. Here they are:

  • The TikTok version, that PoP=C x A, where C is the confidence that it’ll rain somewhere in the forecast area and A means the percentage of that area that will receive a measurable amount of rain. So, a 50% chance of rain in 80% of the area would be 40% PoP.
  • NOAA says PoP measures the likelihood that you’ll see rain at any given point within the forecast area within a 12-hour time period. This is the more commonly accepted definition.
  • The National Weather Service says “it’s the chance of precipitation, which we define as 100th of an inch of rain falling at a particular point over a certain period of time.”
  • Others believe that a 30% chance of rain refers to the proportion of a given area that with 100% assurance will receive rain.
  • Still others believe that PoP actually means that you’ll be seeing rain for 30% of the time in a given forecast area over a certain period. 

The two most accepted definitions are the NOAA and NWS ones. This whole problem stems from meteorologists and apps not giving us a “reference class” when giving us a percentage. A point of comparison would anchor the intended meaning of the forecast.  

The Atlantic Hurricane Season BEGAN June 1st and ends November 30th.  According to CNN, one thing about 2020 that people didn’t notice during the pandemic is that hurricane forecasts improved. Focus is now on size and speed of the approaching storm and the critical “cone of uncertainty”, which affects a certain population. 2021 is expected by the NOAA to be an Active hurricane season. They expect a likely range of 13-20 named storms (winds of 39mph or higher). They expect 6-10 of them to be Hurricanes, and of that 3-5 reaching Category 3 or stronger. There are currently no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time. Elsa has moved into the storm graveyard, south of Greenland. 

The Pacific Hurricane Season BEGAN 5/1/21 and ends 11/1/21. In the Eastern North Pacific. There are currently no tropical cyclones in the Central North Pacific. 

Sports News:       

MLB:

In the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, in the World Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Rays 4 games to 3, to win in another exciting (and rare) 7-game series. 

For 2021, MLB is slowly returning back to normal. We are in the All-Star Game break, which was 7/13. No, they are back to not counting (meaning that the winning League gets Home Team privileges for the World Series). It is back to being just an exhibition game for the fans (along with a homerun derby). In the end, the American League won again. And, once again, the All-Star Game bombed in the TV ratings. So, did the All-Star uniforms, according to fans and analysts. The Nielsen numbers were horrible at 8.24 million viewers. That made it the 2nd least watched All-Star Game of all time.  Maybe, they SHOULD make them count again. 

One player who shined and probably kept the ratings from being much worse, was Shohei Ohtani of the Angels. The phenom participated in the Home Run Derby and wowed the crowd hitting 28 HRs in the first round, but ultimately losing to Manny Soto in a swing-off. But, Ohtani was very respectable, especially for a starting pitcher who is a HR hitter. This season, he has already hit 32 HRs, more than any Japanese-born MLB player in history (halfway through the season), and currently the most in MLB (by 2), and is also pitching great from the mound. He has currently hit 9 more HRs then the closest participants in the Derby. He is the hunt for the AL MVP award. He is batting .279, has stolen 12 bases, has a .364 on-base percentage, and .700 slugging percentage. Oh, and he is also 4-1 with an ERA of 3.49 on the mound. He is a rare two-way player in modern day baseball, harkening back to Babe Ruth in the early 1900s, a great pitcher and homerun king. Ohtani leads the AL with a 5.6 Wins Above Replacement. I’ve heard some AL fans complaining that he gets to pitch and hit in games against their teams, when typically pitchers are replaced by DHs, but Otani hits as his own DH or sometimes as a RF. So, he is well within the rules. He is also at a lot more risk of getting injured, as opposed to most AL starting pitchers who throw for 7 innings every 5 days and never step on the field the other days during a game. While he didn’t win the Homerun Derby, he captured the hearts and awe of fans and turned HOF players into fans. In the All-Star Game on Tuesday night, Ohtani was the first player in All-Star Game history to be a starting pitcher and also bat lead-off, and the Game’s first two-way starter since 1933.  

Pete Alonso ultimately won the Derby. On the horizon, is the 7/31 Trade Deadline. Rumors of trades abound. 

Current standings (07/13), after about 87-92 games:

AL EAST is still kind of a 4-team race, but Boston and Tampa Bay have been pulling ahead of the others. Baltimore is already 26 games out of first place, having lost 7 of their last 10. The Red Sox have the 3rd best record in MLB, tied with the Astros for best in the American League. Still have half a season to play, from a scarred Red Sox fan. 

Boston

Tampa Bay

Toronto

NY Yankees

Baltimore

AL CENTRAL this was starting to look like the runaway division for the White Sox, but the Indians had righted the ship and closed the gap with the Sox. The Sox had lost 7 of their last 10 games. That just flipped around, with the Sox winning 7 of their last 10 games, while the Indians lost 7 of their last 10 games, pushing the distance to 8 games between them. The bottom 3 teams are all 15-18 games out of first place.

Chicago WS

Cleveland

Detroit

Minnesota

Kansas City

AL WEST the A’s have been a surprise, but the Astros have finally overtaken them, winning 7 of their last 10. There isn’t a lot of distance between them though, and the Mariners are hanging tough too. The Angels will have a tough call on the trade deadline.  

Houston

Oakland

Seattle
LA Angels

Texas

NL EAST this division continues to underperform, which leaves almost every team still in the running.  The Mets now have a 3 ½ game lead over the Phillies, who have won 7 of their last 10, as the Nats lost 8 of their last 10, and fell below both the Phillies and the Braves. The Mets are the only team in the division above .500.

NY Mets

Philadelphia

Atlanta

Washington

Miami

NL CENTRAL The Brewers are holding on to first place by 4 games over the Reds, who just won 8 of 10, while the Cubs fell to 3rd, losing 8 of their last 10. 

Milwaukee

Cincinnati

Chicago Cubs

St. Louis

Pittsburgh

NL WEST the World Champion Dodgers looked like they would run away with the division, but the Giants said ‘hold my beer’. Plenty of analysts said that the Giants were not good enough to hold first place, but yet they are still 2 games ahead of the Dodgers. You can’t count the Padres out either, who are only 6 games back of the Giants. Led by teams with the two best records in MLB, this high-flying division has put the Diamondbacks in the rearview mirror, behind first place by 32 1/2 games. 

San Francisco

LA Dodgers

San Diego

Colorado

Arizona

Golf:

The PGA Tour 2021 season rolls on. Next up, The 149th Open Championship (or we call the British Open), the 3rd Major, to be held at Royal St. George’s, to be played 07/15-07/18. 2015 champion Zach Johnson just tested positive for COVID-19 and is out of The Open. Bubba Watson was identified as COVID-19 close contact and also pulled out of The Open. Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama was also forced to withdraw from The Open, after a positive COVID-19 test result. The funeral for slain golf pro Gene Siller was held Monday.  At the American Century Championship in South Lake Tahoe, NV, a celebrity tournament, basketball player Vinny Del Negro became the first basketball player to win the tournament, outlasting pitcher John Smoltz in a Playoff on Sunday. This was despite Smoltz eagling the 18th hole. They used the Stableford scoring system. I’ve played in a couple of tournaments with that format, and it is very confusing. QB Tony Romo came in 3rd. World Golf HOF Annika Sorenstam came in 4th. Charles Barkley tied for 76th out of 87 finishers. That’s significant because the NBA star lost twice, since he had made a $100,000 bet on that he would be in the top 70 of the tournament. Just missed. NHL player Mike Modano hit an albatross (3 under par on a Par 5) by holing out from 205 yards on the 18th hole.  It was the first albatross in the history of the tournament. DeChambeau says he and his former caddie “are good”. He selected instructor Brian Zeigler as his new caddie. Lucas Glover ended a 10-year title drought by winning the PGA Tour John Deere Classic. Jim Furyk bounced back and won the US Senior Open by 3 strokes. Nasa Hataoka won the rain-shortened Marathon LPGA Classic. Min Woo Lee won the Scottish Open after a playoff. But, the biggest surprise at the Scottish Open was the video of Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy and his caddie on the teebox chatting, when a spectator stepped out of the crowd, grabbed Rory’s headcover, then his 6-iron right out of Rory’s bag, and proceeded to the tee, as if to hit a tee shot. The three chatting just stared unmoving in disbelief. Security tackled the walk-on golfer and returned the club and headcover to Rory’s caddie. I’ve never seen anything like that!! Rory may have been a little rattled, as he went on to miss the cut. Argentinian golfer Angel Cabrera was sentenced to 2 years in prison for domestic violence conviction. Last week, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers paired up with Bryson DeChambeau to beat Bucs QB Tom Brady (who had knocked Rodgers out of the NFC Championship, but won the NFL MVP over Brady) who was paired with Phil Mickelson for The Match 2021. 

NFL:

The 2020 NFL season ended with Super Bowl LV, which was played in Tampa Bay, with the Bucs acting as home team. Despite the odds against it and his age against him, QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl over the Chiefs, 31-9. Tom Brady was named Super Bowl MVP, as he won his 7th Super Bowl, more than any franchise, let alone any player, in 10 trips to the Super Bowl. 

Guess who is an available free agent again? Yup, Le’Veon Bell. He is the perennial free agent, except that year that he refused to play and lost about $875,000 in pay per game that season. He may wind up on the Saints. But, there are other notables this year still looking for an NFL team. DE Melvin Ingram from the Chargers. Superstar CB Richard Sherman from the Seahawks and then the 49ers. He could be a Cowboy. RB Todd Gurley, a fixture of the Rams and then released by the Falcons. He could be a Charger. WR Golden Tate of the Lions and then the Eagles and Giants. He could wind up being a Patriot. However, the Patriots have already grabbed 2 new TE and 2 new WR in the offseason free agency market. Broncos’ TE Demaryius Thomas has retired. The NFL just levied today a $10 million on the Washington Football Team, after a one year investigation into a culture in the organization that caused bullying and harassment over the last 15 years on team employees. The team owner will step aside for now and his wife will take over the reins. On Wednesday, Seahawks’ Richard Sherman was arrested for alleged domestic abuse in Seattle. 

Soccer

The European Championship of FIFA EURO 2020 was decided in an exciting round of penalty kicks after full time, on Sunday (my birthday). Italy beat England. France was the team to beat, and Switzerland surprisingly did just that in a penalty shootout, shockingly knocking France out of the round-of-16 with a tie, after trailing early 3-1. So, the Euro 2016 finalists and reigning world champions were out. England had beaten Germany. After Sunday’s Final match, two England players received a rash of racist tweets and texts from England fans, blaming them for missing penalty kicks on their turns at the end. One of the players has now alleged that UK’s Boris Johnson’s government “stoked the fire” that led to the flood of online racist attacks. Matheus has been released by Barcelona after playing just 17 minutes. De Boer has stepped down as Netherlands head coach. The UEFA Europa League is also being played. Across the pond, the Copa America 2021 was decided with the Final also on Sunday, with Argentina beating Brazil, 1-0. Lionel Messi of Argentina had a statistical dominance over all of the other Copa America players.  Manchester United to challenge Tottenham Hotspurs to sign the $72 million defender, Cristian Romero, who won Copa America. In addition, FC Barcelona is also interested in Romero.  Romero was loaned to Atalanta from Juventus last summer. 

Tennis

The 2021 tennis season is now in full swing. We have begun the next major, Wimbledon. And, American legend Serena Williams retired in tears from Wimbledon in her first round match! She was hoping to win her 8th Wimbledon Singles title and tie Margaret Court’s Grand Slam Singles record of 24. The 39-year-old was leading when she slipped and had to have her left ankle examined. Her odds were good, coming into the tournament, as 2019 champion Simona Halep and Naomi Osaka had withdrawn prior to the tournament. Williams had already passed on the Olympics, to focus on the US Open in September. Other players have complained about Centre Court being very slippery, including England’s Andy Murray. Williams has not won a Slam event since 2017. Osaka, who pulled out of the French Open, after being forced to do press conference, while suffering from anxiety, then passed on Wimbledon, and pulled out of the Tokyo Olympics in her home country, won the ESPY’s Best Woman Athlete award for her bravery and courage to bring to light mental issues that many athletes and people have. 

NCAA Basketball

The 2020-2021 season began in November. The 2021 NCAA tournament, March Madness, yielded the national champion, undefeated Gonzaga.

Olympics:

The 2021 Tokyo Summer Games are still officially on, although some athletes have refused to participate because of the pandemic. They are set to begin 07/23. However, as Japan enters another wave of COVID-19, specifically the Delta variant, they have decided not to have ANY spectators in the Olympic stadium and at some other venues. The Marathon and Baseball will have fans, among some other outdoor sports. Nigeria stunned Team USA men’s basketball 90-87 in an exhibition game. Some of the new sports at this Olympic Games will include: Skateboarding, Surfing, Sport Climbing, Karate, 3×3 Basketball, Baseball (returns), Softball, BMX Freestyle, among others. 

NHL:

The puck dropped on the asterisk season (last season) on 10/2/19. The puck dropped (again) to conclude the same season on 8/1/20. The teams played in the modified playoffs in two bubble arenas in Toronto and Edmonton, without fans. The Stanley Cup was won by the Tampa Bay Lightning (who ousted my Bruins, due to the Presidents Cup curse) over the Dallas Stars, 4 games to 2. The Finals were held in the Edmonton bubble, without fans. 

The 2021 NHL season (which normally would have started in 2020 and wrapped around to 2021) was delayed and started 1/13/21.  The regular season is normally 82 games, but was only 56 games this year, once again due to the pandemic. 

It was an exciting Playoffs, despite the odd configuration of the Divisions to be less traveling for the players and more COVID-19 aware. The Cinderella team this year, but perennial Stanley Cup winners in the old days, the Montreal Canadiens, ran into a rough Tampa Bay Lightning team and a goalie who was on fire. They wound up losing in 5 games, 4-1, to the Lightning, who repeated their Stanley Cup victory from last year. That’s an unusual feat nowadays with trades, salary cap and free agency. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy won the Conn Smythe Trophy, as the MVP of the Playoffs. Yahoo Sports ran a story about the goalie possibly wearing illegal goaltender equipment, as fans of other teams are looking for a reason for why he was so good, claiming that his pads were oversized. It appears to be just a smear campaign. Next up is the NHL Draft 2021. Pierre McGuire went from ‘Inside the Glass’ as a commentator for NBC Sports to the Senators’ front office. The Oilers have acquired Duncan Keith a longtime star with the Blackhawks for Caleb Jones and a 3rd round pick. The NHL has designated its best free agents and top buy-out candidates. The San Jose Sharks are open for business this off-season, with regular players up for grabs. Blackhawks’ Patrick Kane was just named the Best NHL Player at the ESPY’s. The NHL is expanding to 32 teams for the 2021-22 season, with the addition of the Seattle Kraken in the Pacific Division. There will be a special expansion Draft for the Kraken to fill their bench. If you recall, when the Las Vegas Golden Knights did their expansion Draft, they performed extremely well, getting some of the best players around the league, particularly at goalie. The Bruins signed Brandon Carlo to a contract extension, but Kevin Miller announced his retirement. 

NBA:

Last year, the NBA season did not start until 10/22/19, 18 days later than last year. We were nearing the playoffs, when the pandemic shut the regular season down, with just a little over a month left. Late 6/4/20, the NBA reportedly approved a 22-team format to restart the season in the Summer. All games were played at the three venues at Walt Disney World in Orlando, Fl, starting 7/31. The modified playoff format for this asterisk season began on 10/12. In the end, the Miami Heat lost the Championship to the LA Lakers. 

The NBA season tipped off again on 12/22/20. We are now nearing the end of the Playoffs. We are in the Finals, as the No.2 Phoenix Suns knocked off the No.4 LA Clippers in the Western Conference and the No.3 Milwaukee Bucks chased the No.5 Atlanta Hawks away in the Eastern Conference. The Suns lead in the Finals, 2-1 in games. The Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo’s 41 points kept it from being a 3-0 series. The 2021 NBA Draft is less than 3 weeks away. 

Horse Racing:

Okay, I cry ‘shenanigans!’ so trainer Bob Baffert, who has had a remarkable streak of winners over the last few years, was found to have allowed the Kentucky Derby winner to have been given topical steroids that were banned, disqualifying him, eventually from the victory (although officially not changing that he won, screwing all of the bettors) and suspending for life the trainer Bob Baffert from Churchill Downs racing. A later blood test confirmed the initial blood test, which disqualified the horse, Medina Spirit, from running in the Belmont Stakes in Hempstead, NY. Bob Baffert was also banned from running horses in New York, which would include not only Belmont, but Saratoga, White Plains, etc. However, on Wednesday, a NY federal judge nullified Baffert’s suspension of horse racing in NY, finding the NYRA did not let him adequately respond to claims made against him after Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit failed those postrace drug tests. 

Auto Racing:

In the NASCAR Cup Series of 2020, Chase Elliott won. The 2021 regular season began with the Daytona 500 on 2/14/21. NASCAR and iRacing announced an official partnership. Gordon said he is retiring from Penske at end of 2021. Six teams were fined after Pocono race. Here is the 2021 schedule and winners:

02/09/21 Busch Clash at Daytona-Kyle Busch

02/11/21 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 1 at Daytona-Aric Almirola

02/11/21 Bluegreen Vacations Duel 2 at Daytona-Austin Dillon

02/14/21